The Jacksonville Jaguars are just 4.5-point favorites over the Colts. This is a Colts team with a rookie starting quarterback and an absent Jonathan Taylor. If the line stays at 4.5, the Jaguars should easily cover. That is not to say that the Jaguars are the best team in the NFL. They are not. They are much improved, but if 2018 tells us anything, it tells us that the Jaguars will often disappoint their fan base. With that said, the Trevor Lawrence vs. Anthony Richardson quarterback matchup might just be the most lopsided week 1 matchup in the NFL.
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Think Karate Kid without the crane kick, the tortoise vs. the disciplined and hard-working hare, or the three little pigs without any bricks to build their home. Lawrence is that much better. Richardson looked lost in the preseason. His mechanics were not just bad, they were awful. On the positive, he looked in command of the huddle and was even named a team captain. The problem is not his leadership qualities or his pocket presence, the problem is that he is just not accurate. As the old saying goes, Richardson “cannot hit the broadside of a barn.”
Trevor Lawrence is trending in the complete opposite direction. He went from completing 59.6% of his passes in 2021 to 66.3% in 2022. In the preseason, Lawrence looked even better. He seems to have complete command of the offense and he and Calvin Ridley look like a dynamic combination. He has a great backfield and an emerging tight end. Lawrence has weapons and a unique ability to distribute the football to those weapons. Other than Michael Pittman Jr., Richardson does not have either of those two things.
Trevor Lawrence Is Light Years Ahead of Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson Completed Less Than 55% of His Passes in College
Richardson was drafted because he is one of the most physically gifted athletes in the NFL. He is 6’4, almost 250 pounds, and ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the combine. As far as arm strength is concerned, the word “cannon” comes to mind. He can easily make every throw and has one of the strongest arms in the NFL already. On paper, he is every coach’s dream.
At some point, however, reality sets in. There is a reason Richardson only completed 55% of his passes in college. The reason is that he was just not a good college quarterback. He was inaccurate from the start. On top of his inaccuracy, he made poor decisions and ran too often. He seemed to struggle with reading defenses and knowing where the ball should go. In the NFL preseason, he looked even worse. He had some good runs, but he struggled to throw the ball accurately and consistently. Anthony Richardson is going to, at the very least, struggle the entire first year of his NFL career and that bodes well for the Jaguars winning the first game by at least 10 points.
Trevor Lawrence Has Weapons Everywhere
The Jaguars, from an offensive skill position perspective, are one of the most talented teams in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence has shown that he is on his way to being one of the elite quarterbacks. With this new stable of receivers and running backs, he could easily be considered a top 5 quarterback by the end of the year.
The offensive line is suspect. Cam Robinson is out for four games although Walker Little seems to be doing alright in his place. Anton Harrison is a rookie who has made a couple of mistakes this preseason. The interior of the line is solid. Ben Bartch has been injured, but he is back and ready to play on Sunday. If the offensive line can just be average, the skill players on this offense should be able to shine.
The wide receivers should be one of the Jaguar’s strongest position units. Calvin Ridley looks like a legitimate star and Zay Jones and Christian Kirk proved last year that they can perform. Jamal Agnew has also shown explosive capabilities in space. Travis Etienne is a 1,000-yard rusher and a good receiver and is complimented well by backup Tank Bigsby. Evan Engram finally showed the type of pass catcher he can be and Brenton Strange should be a good second option. Even if Richardson and Lawrence were close to each other in talent, which they are not, Lawrence has vastly superior offensive weapons.
Jonathan Taylor Is Out For At Least 4 Games
A running game is almost as important to a quarterback as their left tackle. It takes the pressure off, keeps the defense off balance, and just makes the game easier to manage. Without Jonathan Taylor in the lineup, the Jaguars have a huge edge here as well.
Jonathan Taylor was the Colt’s best offensive weapon last year and maybe their best player overall. He only rushed for 861 yards while missing six games due to injury. In 2021 he rushed for over 1,800 yards, and he is one of the best running backs in the league when healthy. He is important for play action, keeping the defense honest, and for his big playmaking ability. Having a security blanket like Taylor, who can also catch the ball out of the backfield, would have been huge for Anthony Richardson this year.
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