During the month of August, the Last Word on Sports NFL department will be breaking down every division in the league by position. This article contains a breakdown of each NFC South offense position group. The breakdown will contain “the best” at each unit followed by “the rest” in descending order.
[cta id=4013 type=cta]
2023 NFC South Offense Breakdown by Position
Quarterbacks
The Best: New Orleans Saints
The Rest: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons
The Saints, led by Derek Carr, get the top spot here. His time in Las Vegas ended on a sour note, and he heads into 2023 looking for redemption. In a more stable situation in New Orleans, Carr will look to bounce back from a rough 2022. Carr has previously showcased the ability to elevate his game to that of a borderline top-10 quarterback. His upside at this stage is limited, but does come with a proven ability to deliver in the clutch.
The rest of the group all face major questions at the position. The Panthers started their rebuild process this year, selecting Bryce Young to be their franchise quarterback. Young was a highly touted prospect but does come with concern. His frame is an outlier at the position, and durability will be an ongoing worry. However, he could quickly have the Panthers in contention after showing he is the real deal in preseason Week 2. Young is the second best quarterback in the South.
[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query=”nfl/bryce_young/player_187773″ size=”350×300″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
The Bucs are rolling with Baker Mayfield in what is likely to be a rebuilding year. Mayfield impressed during his brief cameo with the Rams last season, but his track record overall fails to inspire much confidence. If things go south quickly, it would not be a surprise to see Kyle Trask given an opportunity at some point.
Meanwhile, the Falcons head into year two of the Desmond Ridder era. While there is optimism in Ridder being the long-term answer, his ceiling remains in question. Ridder has shown flashes but still has a long way to go before entering the upper echelon of quarterbacks.
Running Backs
The Best: New Orleans Saints
The Rest: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints narrowly edge out the Falcons for the top group of running backs. At times last year, Alvin Kamara was forced into a Derrick Henry-esque role due to the Saints lack of depth. They aimed to address that issue by signing Jamaal Williams and drafting Kendre Miller to ease Kamara’s workload.
Kamara’s value has always come from his versatility, and is at his best when working with other complementary backs. Williams led the league in touchdowns last season and has a proven ability in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Miller should be a quality number three, operating in the offense in a role similar to Kamara’s.
The Falcons narrowly missed the top spot, but may quickly overtake the Saints. Arthur Smith decided to get his own ‘Henry’ in Atlanta, selecting Bijan Robinson eighth overall. One of the best RB prospects in years, Robinson arrives a superstar back from day one. With his natural ability and skillset, he should have no trouble stepping right into a workhorse role. In addition to Robinson, the Falcons have one of the best number two backs in the league in Tyler Allgeier. The 2022 fifth-rounder rushed for over 1,000 yards last year and gives the Falcons great depth at the position.
Bijan Robinson’s first carry in the NFL is a good one 😳 pic.twitter.com/F58FnbOuP2
— PFF (@PFF) August 18, 2023
The Panthers, among a flurry of free agent moves, brought in Miles Sanders to lead their running back group. Sanders was solid during his time in Philadelphia and had his best year in 2022. He is not much of a contributor in the passing game, however. With a significantly worse supporting cast in 2023, Sanders may find things harder to come by this year. The Panthers do not have exceptional depth, with Chuba Hubbard operating as the primary backup.
The Bucs enter 2023 with arguably the league’s worst running back room. With Leonard Fournette’s departure, the team has turned to Rachaad White as the starter. White had a decent rookie year, especially in the receiving game. However, his immense volume likely came due to an aging Tom Brady’s propensity for check-downs. As a runner, White’s ability failed to inspire pop. Behind White are Keshawn Vaughn and Chase Edmonds, neither of whom do much to raise the backfield’s ceiling. Undrafted rookie Sean Tucker has made some noise recently, even taking first-team reps.
Wide Receivers
The Best: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Rest: New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers
The Bucs star power gives them the division’s best group at wide receiver heading into 2023. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the league’s premier duos at the position. Evans has yet to slow down and will again put his streak of 1,000-yard seasons on the line. Godwin is now a year removed from injury recovery and seems to have formed a nice rapport with Mayfield. These two will be leaned on heavily if the Bucs are going to have any shot of competing. There is not much depth behind the pair, but rookie Trey Palmer has been making plays throughout the preseason and should contribute.
Baker hits Chris Godwin for 6⃣
(via @Buccaneers)pic.twitter.com/tseolkLMf6
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 26, 2023
The Saints edge out the Falcons at number two due to their depth. Chris Olave will fill that alpha role for the Saints in 2023, looking for a sophomore breakout. Olave had a productive rookie season, but needs to become a more complete receiver to enter the next tier. Opposite Olave, the Saints are hoping Michael Thomas escapes the injury bug and carves a new niche in this offense. At 30, Thomas is probably not breaking any more records, but he still offers immense value. Thomas can fill the role of contested-catch specialist, a skillset the Saints missed in 2022. Rashid Shaheed, a 2022 UDFA, rounds out the core. Shaheed shined in limited snaps last year, highlighted by some electric big plays early on. He gives the Saints an extremely well-rounded trio.
The Falcons, like the Saints, are counting on their star receiver to make a second-year leap. Drake London had a productive rookie year, but did not flash the way other rookies like Olave and Garrett Wilson did. London commanded a significant target share in his rookie year, something that will likely happen again in 2023. He too has superstar potential, and will look to continue building on his chemistry with Ridder. Behind him, however, the Falcons are seriously lacking depth. Veterans Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller have had their moments, but won’t do much to take defensive attention off London.
The Panthers do not have the star power of the other three but do seem to have some decent depth. The team signed Adam Thielen in free agency, and he may be someone Bryce Young quickly latches onto. D.J. Chark was another under-the-radar off-season signing and should fill the offense’s deep-threat role. Jonathan Mingo, drafted in the second round, is someone the Panthers are hoping develop into their future number one. Mingo is not a particularly great separator, but has a physically imposing frame and showcased explosiveness in his college tape. Laviska Shenault and Terrace Marshall are intriguing names as well. Both entered the league with upside that has not yet panned out, but are extremely young and still have enticing potential. This is a fascinating group overall, and while they are not top heavy, there is undoubtedly some upside here.
Tight Ends
The Best: Atlanta Falcons
The Rest: New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kyle Pitts alone is enough to give the Falcons the crown here. While his numbers nosedived in 2022, it should not be seen as an indictment on Pitts’ ability. The offensive scheme and inconsistency at quarterback did Pitts no favors. He is primed for a big 2023. Behind Pitts is Jonnu Smith, acquired in a trade this offseason. Smith is also an athletic specimen and may have some untapped potential the Falcons can utilize. The veteran is a high-end blocker, but could contribute in the receiving game significantly, especially given Atlanta’s lack of talent at wide receiver. If Arthur Smith can bring some elements of what Smith did in Tennessee, this will be a strong duo.
[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query=”nfl/kyle_pitts/player_90850″ size=”350×300″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
The Saints enter 2023 with one of the league’s most compelling tight end rooms. When it comes to depth, it is hard to find a team that can run four deep like this group. Juwan Johnson should function as the primary starter and vertical threat, looking to follow up on his mini-breakout from 2022. Behind him, Foster Moreau offers a do-it-all type presence. Jimmy Graham is probably running on fumes at this stage of his career and should not be receiving many snaps. But, his 6’7″ frame gives the team a red-zone weapon. The unicorn that is Taysom Hill will technically take snaps at tight end, but his true value will likely continue to come from his snaps running out of the quarterback position.
The Panthers and Bucs will probably not feature much from their tight ends. Hayden Hurst offers Bryce Young another veteran receiving option in a pass-catching unit flushed with youth. Hurst is a dependable blocker and receiver, but will not offer much in the way of upside. Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble are not terrible options as depth. The Bucs will be relying on year two of Cade Otton, who had some good moments in his rookie year but is unlikely to be ready to be a significant contributor.
Offensive Line
The Best: Atlanta Falcons
The Rest: New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons enter 2023 with one of the league’s best offensive lines. They have invested a lot of assets into their line, and it has begun to pay off. Jake Matthews is a stalwart at left tackle. Chris Lindstrom was an All Pro last year, and has been extended for the foreseeable future. Even Kaleb McGary, following a rocky rookie season, made significant strides in 2022. On the left side of the interior, Drew Dalman and rookie Matthew Bergeron are not as established, but both come with a lot of upside. If they can just be average-to-good, this line can cement itself as perhaps the league’s best.
The Saints have also made it a priority in recent years to invest in the offensive line. Four of five starters are either first or second-round picks. Ryan Ramczyk and Erik McCoy have proven themselves among the league’s best at tackle and center respectively. Cesar Ruiz, former first-rounder, took a leap in year three after getting dangerously close to ‘bust’ territory. James Hurst will likely start at left guard and should offer dependable play on the interior. Trevor Penning at left tackle is going to be this group’s wild card. Penning entered the league extremely raw and missed much of his rookie year due to injury. He has stayed healthy through camp, and has had ups and downs. His progression in year two will be the primary factor behind the perception and performance of the Saints line.
The Panthers, similar to the Saints, will be counting on their 2022 first-round left tackle to turn things around. They drafted Ikem Ekwonu sixth overall, hoping to create a bookend tackle duo with established veteran Taylor Moton. Ekwonu had an up-and-down rookie year but his ceiling remains sky-high. The rest of the Panthers line is a solid, but not exceptional unit. Austin Corbett is working back from injury, and Brady Christensen will look to rebound after a down year in 2022. Bradley Bozeman is an adequate starter at center, but the strength in this line lies on the outside if Ekwonu can elevate his play.
The Bucs may have the division’s best player on the line in tackle Tristan Wirfs. A superstar on the right side over his first few years in the league, Wirfs will now be making the switch to left tackle following Donovan Smith’s departure. Outside of Wirfs though, there is not much to speak about with the rest of the group. With Smith and Shaq Mason gone, Tampa Bay will roll out a line full of youth in 2023. Ryan Jensen has already been ruled out for the year, leaving Robert Hainsey tasked with starting at center. Hainsey played in all 17 games last season but isn’t of the same caliber as a healthy Jensen. The right side of the line, with guard Cody Mauch and tackle Luke Goedeke is also extremely inexperienced and still needs significant development.
look at the movement Tristan Wirfs (#78) gets. Moves the defender over a whole gap. pic.twitter.com/IlwYFg8SOl
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 27, 2023
Universal Responsible Gambling Disclaimer:
Ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Main Photo: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
