Each year, heading into draft season, we start to settle upon players we love and players we hate, relative to ADP. This article will dive into the latter portion, my fantasy football tight end fades. We never like to see players perform poorly, but we also need to identify players that look to be in disadvantageous situations. Here are three fantasy football tight end fades for 2023.
READ MORE: Quarterback Sleepers – Running Back Targets – Wide Receiver Targets – Tight End Targets – Quarterback Fades – Running Back Fades – Wide Receiver Fades
Fantasy Football Tight End Fades for 2023
Before we get into these fantasy football fades, I want to preface this by saying that all of these are relative to ADP. Of course, if any of them slip a few rounds, I’ll take a chance on them but that rarely happens. These are all based on Fantasypros PPR ADP data as of this writing.
1. T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
This one is going to ruffle some feathers considering how good T.J. Hockenson was after getting traded to the Vikings and how excited fantasy managers are to draft him this year. During the 2022 season, Hockenson set career highs in targets (129), receptions (86), receiving yards (914), and fantasy points per game (12.7). That was good enough for a TE4 finish. He was even better, though, after being traded to the Vikings. Both his target share and air yards share ticked up and he averaged more than 14 fantasy points per game. Many fantasy managers have been waiting for a while for Hockenson to reach these heights since he was such a heralded prospect coming out of Iowa and being taken with the eighth overall pick back in 2019. That should bode well, especially with the Vikings getting rid of Adam Thielen, right?
.@notJDaigle has shown me the light on T.J. Hockenson. 🚨🚨🚨
In 7 games with Detroit last year, Hock was on pace for:
6.1 targets
15.2 YPR
9.2 YPT
7.0% TD%
12.2 PPR FPPG
Best FP: 35.9
Worst FP: 1.6In 10 games with Minnesota last year, Hock averaged:
8.6 targets
8.6 YPR
6.0… pic.twitter.com/6gpBNCPEMx— Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_) August 23, 2023
Heading into 2023, the Vikings may have gotten rid of Thielen but they drafted Jordan Addison in the first round of this year’s draft. Addison figures to slot in immediately and should see a heavy complement of routes and targets. Hockenson’s talent profile is also much more aligned with the TE3-7 range than it is THE definitive TE3, which is the main issue. Right now he’s the TE3 and 42nd overall player off the board. That’s way too early considering Kyle Pitts, who I have ranked ahead of Hockenson, gets drafted nearly two rounds later. Draft a great wide receiver like Christian Watson or D.J. Moore or even take Justin Fields in that range instead and get a tight end later in the draft. This makes Hockenson one of the biggest fantasy football tight end fades for 2023.
2. Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Just a few months ago, the Bills decided to use their first-round pick to take Dalton Kincaid 25th overall in the NFL draft. That made him the first tight end off the board. There was immediate excitement for him to join Josh Allen and the Bills’ high-powered offense. Kincaid had a nice 2022 campaign finishing with 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns. He then posted a 4.68 40-yard dash time. His breakout age, college YPR, and college dominator were all 80th percentile or better. Kincaid also graded out 90th percentile in Fantasy Life’s TE rookie super model. Everything looks to be “wheels up” heading into 2023 right now so what’s the big issue?
Ultimately, Kincaid is still a rookie tight end. This is one of the hardest positions to transition from college to the pro game and it’s shown over the years. It’s rare for any rookie tight end to step right in and put up a big season. The position is more than just running a route. They need to understand pass protection concepts and it’s not an overnight thing.
The camp hype tends to think that Kincaid will be used primarily out of the slot. While that may happen, we’ve heard that narrative year in and year out just for the rookie tight ends to disappoint for fantasy football purposes. Stefon Diggs is still the alpha target earner in this offense and Gabe Davis will likely be second. In addition, Dawson Knox will compete for snaps and routes with Kincaid so he may not see as many snaps or routes as people are hoping. This all adds up to Kincaid being one of the easiest fantasy football tight end fades for 2023. He’s being drafted as the TE13 and the 124th overall player off the board. I’d rather take an upside wide receiver like Elijah Moore or Rashod Bateman and then take a tight end like Chigoziem Okonkwo or Greg Dulcich a round or two later.
3. Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Is there any tight end that’s more boring than Cole Kmet? That can be taken however you want to take it as there are times that boring is best when it comes to fantasy football. However, when it comes to the tight end position, it’s usually not the case. Kmet has finished TE16 and TE21 the past two years averaging 8.7 and 7.1 fantasy points per game, respectively. He got there in different ways, though, as last year was lower volume than 2021 but he scored seven touchdowns last year as opposed to none in 2021. From 2021 to 2022 Kmet dropped from 93 targets, 60 receptions, and 612 yards down to 69 targets, 50 receptions, and 544 yards. That had a lot to do with the fact that the Bears were one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL with Justin Fields at the helm.
Cole Kmet’s CAREER HIGH PPG: 10.0
Greg Dulcich ROOKIE PPG: 10.3
yet according to @KeepTradeCut 👇🏼
📍Cole Kmet: TE14
📍Greg Dulcich: TE15Dulcich > Kmet in ALL Formats 🙄 pic.twitter.com/zo0tVRlcnN
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) August 17, 2023
Heading into 2023, there’s no reason to expect Kmet’s targets to go up. The Bears should throw more passes in 2023 than they did in 2022 but Kmet’s 19.3% target share is almost certain to drop. He did that when Darnell Mooney was the lead target and Mooney himself even went down with an injury. This offseason the Bears traded for DJ Moore. Moore is a far more talented wide receiver who should command a large target share. It will be hard for Kmet to earn much more than a 15% target share unless Moore goes down. That creates an extremely narrow path to success and that path is through spike-week touchdown production. Kmet turns into a touchdown-dependent player on a team that may be middle-of-the-road at doing so. He’s currently being drafted as the TE12 and the 122nd overall player. This makes him one of the biggest fantasy football tight end fades for 2023. Like Kincaid, your plan should be to draft Jared Goff, Elijah Moore, or Rashod Bateman instead of Kmet and then take a tight end like Chigoziem Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, or even Hayden Hurst later.
Main Photo: Matt Krohn – USA Today Sports
