It’s easy to get overly excited about rookie running backs, especially in the fantasy football world. Each one looks great throughout the draft process and during non-contact practices. The reality is that only a few of them will produce year one. Below are three rookie running backs that are unlikely to be useful in fantasy football this season.
2023 Rookie Running Backs to Avoid in Fantasy Football
Kendre Miller – New Orleans Saints
This isn’t an indictment of Kendre Miller, but rather the situation the running back finds himself in as a rookie. Miller is an incredibly talented runner who displayed excellent patience, breakaway speed, and lateral agility at TCU. He averaged 7.5 yards per carry as a sophomore, then 6.2 as a junior when his workload skyrocketed.
One crucial area that Miller has room for growth is the receiving game. He showed competence when called upon but the opportunities were few and far between. He never topped 16 receptions in a season during college. It’s difficult for Miller to ever become a fantasy-relevant player if he isn’t reliable in passing situations.
Miller projects to eventually be an effective early-down running back with some receiving usage. This likely won’t be during the 21-year-old’s rookie campaign, however. The Saints running back room is crowded entering 2023. Even with Alvin Kamara’s three-game suspension to start the year, Miller will likely back up Jamaal Williams.
Another red flag for Miller is his availability or lack thereof, this offseason. He suffered a sprained MCL during his final game in college and spent the offseason rehabbing. Things were looking good until he suffered another knee injury during a preseason game. Reports suggest Miller will be fine, but rookie running backs missing time during training camp could lead to a smaller role.
Tank Bigsby – Jacksonville Jaguars
Tank Bigsby broke out in his freshman year at Auburn with over 900 total yards. He followed that up with two consecutive seasons of over 1100 yards from scrimmage and double-digit TDs. Bigsby put himself on the map right away and was a consistent producer throughout college.
Bigsby left a lot to be desired efficiency-wise despite impressive raw numbers. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a sophomore, which ranked 130th in the nation. He improved in 2022 but remained outside of the top-75 NCAA players in yards per carry. Bigsby profiles as a jack-of-all-trades, but master of none.
Jacksonville’s starting running back, Travis Etienne, missed his rookie season due to injury but looked great in year two. His 1125 rushing yards were the most by any running back under 24 years old. Etienne also led the NFL in rushing yards over expected per attempt (min. 100 carries) as a “rookie”.
Because of Bigsby’s well-rounded game, he’ll carve out a role for himself. He’s already made a great impression at training camp according to multiple reports. But based on Etienne’s play a year ago, Bigsby faces an uphill battle to become the starter.
Roschon Johnson – Chicago Bears
Bijan Robinson wasn’t the only Texas Longhorn running back drafted this year. The Chicago Bears selected his collegiate backup, Roschon Johnson, at the start of the 4th round.
Johnson was effective with limited touches in college. His yards per carry were neck-and-neck with Robinson’s in each of the last two seasons. He showed flashes of being a three-down back but particularly excels between the tackles. His powerful, downhill running style complimented Robinson well.
While he was solid when called upon, Johnson’s small sample size of productivity is a concern. He never topped 100 carries during a season and is now in a crowded backfield in Chicago. Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert led their respective positions in yards per carry last year. The team also signed veteran running back D’Onta Foreman earlier this offseason.
It’s unlikely Johnson sees more than a handful of carries in most games as a rookie. He’ll need a few things to go his way to be among the fantasy-relevant rookie running backs.
Main Photo: Orlando Ramirez – USA Today Sports
