Leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, Anthony Richardson was one of the most polarizing prospects. Yet, people gravitated towards one flaw that gave them pause. Many scouting reports labeled Richardson as an “inconsistent accuracy” passer. Despite these perceived inaccuracy issues, Richardson is still an elite athlete with freakish traits and even scored a perfect rating on his RAS card. With all this in mind, the Indianapolis Colts felt comfortable they could groom Richardson into a franchise quarterback when they selected him fourth overall. Does Anthony Richardson have what it takes to be a competent NFL quarterback and give fantasy managers enough weekly points to satisfy?
2023 Fantasy Football Player Profile: Anthony Richardson
The Perfect Stable For This Colt is in Indianapolis
Since the unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck weeks before the 2019 season, the Colts have been searching for his replacement. Fans have endured four different Week 1 starters (Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan) and a total of seven different players under center over the last four seasons, tied second-most during that stretch. Anthony Richardson brings inspiration back into the fandom while looking to stop the revolving door of starting quarterbacks. The search might be over and a new era of Indianapolis Colts football is on the horizon.
Landing with Shane Steichen and the Indianapolis Colts was the best-case scenario for Anthony Richardson. Steichen was a big reason for the MVP-caliber season from Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts in 2022. Coincidentally, Anthony Richardson and Jalen Hurts have very similar play styles and talents. Engineering an offense around Richardson and creating a game plan that suits his strengths should feel like Deja vu for Steichen. He did just orchestrate a phenomenal season for Jalen Hurts a season ago. Pairing young quarterbacks with knowledgeable coaches to put them in a position to succeed is important for their careers. The Colts nailed this coaching hire and draft selection combination.
A Risky Rookie…
Working on my next #FantasyFootball project.
Here is a list of all the 1st round rookie QBs that started in double digit games during their first season along w/ their fantasy finishes, total points & PPG.
How do you see Bryce Young, CJ Stroud & Anthony Richardson doing year 1? pic.twitter.com/2sNyLLPlxZ
— Austin Thomas (@Austin_Thomas18) August 16, 2023
Shifting gears from the collegiate level to the pros has been a learning experience for most rookie quarterbacks over the last decade. Going back to the 2013 season, there have been 19 rookie quarterbacks starting double-digit games for their respective teams. Only two of them were able to break the top-12 fantasy quarterback barrier while five finished in the top-20. At an 11% hit rate of first-year quarterbacks finishing as a top-12 fantasy option and just over a quarter (26%) reaching the top 20, those aren’t the best odds. The likelihood of Anthony Richardson finishing as a QB1 this season is slim, but there is a sliver of hope.
…Or a Rambunctious Rusher?
Continuing that #FantasyFootball data research from earlier…
These are all the QBs to rush over 500 yards in a season w/ their fantasy finishes, total points & PPG.
Mobile QBs are a cheat code in fantasy football averaging 20.6 PPG pic.twitter.com/uyCyl4jYLU
— Austin Thomas (@Austin_Thomas18) August 16, 2023
On the flip side of being a rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson possesses tremendous rushing ability. Mobile quarterbacks are a cheat code in the fantasy world and this skillset will only benefit fantasy managers. Reviewing the same duration as the rookies, the previous 10 seasons, there have been 31 occurrences where a quarterback has rushed over 500 yards. Of those 31, 22 ended the season as a top-12 fantasy quarterback, that’s a 71% success rate. Expanding it further to the top-16, which is Richardson’s current ADP, then 27 of the entries accomplished this achievement – an astounding 87% success rate. Of all these quarterbacks, they collectively averaged 20.6 PPG. Again, mobile quarterbacks have an unfair advantage with their rushing upside giving them a safe weekly floor. Anthony Richardson could be the next anomaly on the rookie list.
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ADP Bargain or Fool’s Gold?
Diving deep into the numbers, it appears that rushing quarterbacks have a better track record at fantasy success. The rookie numbers are worrisome, but a good portion of them didn’t play a full season nor had the rushing prowess of Anthony Richardson. Richardson’s already on the right track challenging the rookie narrative by being named the week one starter. The next step is to stay relatively healthy and surpass that 500-rushing yard mark. If he can do that there’s no question that he’ll be a massive value in fantasy drafts.
Will Anthony Richardson be the next rookie quarterback to have growing pains and come up short of expectations in his first season, or will he hit the ground running on his way to being the next dangerous mobile quarterback? Which side he lands on is to be determined, but the potential’s there to be a steal in your draft. Going off the board around QB16, Richardson’s rushing upside alone gives him a safe floor every week. With the tools around him it could catapult him into that QB1 (top-12) range any time he steps onto the field. There might be “safer” quarterbacks close to this ADP, but not all have the rushing upside that Richardson has and that’s the key to gaining an advantage over your league-mates. Don’t draft scared and scoop up this valuable asset being selected close to his floor.
Main Photo: Trevor Ruszkowski – USA Today Sports
