Each year, heading into draft season, we start to settle upon players we love and players we hate, relative to ADP. This article will dive into the latter portion, my fantasy football wide receiver fades. We never like to see players perform poorly, but we also need to identify players that look to be in disadvantageous situations. Here are three fantasy football wide receiver fades for 2023.
READ MORE: Quarterback Sleepers – Running Back Targets – Wide Receiver Targets – Tight End Targets – Quarterback Fades – Running Back Fades
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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Fades for 2023
Before we get into these fantasy football fades, I want to preface this by saying that all of these are relative to ADP. Of course, if any of them slip a few rounds, I’ll take a chance on them but that rarely happens. These are all based on Fantasypros PPR ADP data as of this writing.
1. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
If you’ve read the “Fade” series up to this point, you may think I absolutely hate the Jacksonville Jaguars. It actually pains me to be fading them so much as I think they can be a really fun team. It’s just that almost everyone is excited and it has pushed the ADPs to a point where they’ve gotten out of control.
The last time we saw Calvin Ridley, he was coming off a monster year in 2020 in which he scored 18.8 fantasy points per game and finished as the WR4. The following year his scoring dipped to 14.2 fantasy points per game through the first five games of the season before he shockingly stepped away from football for personal reasons. We haven’t seen him in an NFL game since. When Ridley tried to return to the NFL, he got suspended for the entire 2022 season for gambling on NFL games. He’s officially back now and will be making his Jaguars debut in 2023.
While Calvin Ridley/Lawrence are probably the best QB/WR combo Doug Pederson has ever had…
I’m a little concerned about Ridley’s ceiling.
Long history of spreading the ball around and producing mid fantasy WRs. Has never produced a WR1
Ridley is just expensive Michael Thomas pic.twitter.com/rQyXDcZY0K
— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) August 16, 2023
Heading into 2023 there are so many question marks when it comes to Ridley. He was definitely an elite talent but hasn’t played in an NFL game in nearly two years at this point. There aren’t many guys that can take that sort of time off and just come back like it was nothing, let alone on a completely new team too.
In addition to that, Ridley is now two years older and closing in on 29 years old. As previously mentioned, his production had already dipped at the beginning of 2021 as well. Right now he’s the WR17 and 40th overall player off the board and has been creeping into the third round in most drafts lately. That’s way too early for Ridley considering all the risks involved. He shouldn’t be drafted ahead of guys like Christian Watson, DJ Moore, or Keenan Allen. This makes Ridley one of the biggest fantasy football wide receiver fades for 2023.
2. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel is, admittedly, one of the most difficult players to rank in fantasy football. He’s been a truly unique wide receiver for fantasy purposes because of his versatility. Samuel has 101 carries over the last two seasons combined, far and away the most among any wide receiver. That’s in addition to 133 receptions on 215 targets. Samuel has turned all those touches into 2,634 total yards and 19 total touchdowns. He plays on one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL as well. So we’ve got one of the most versatile and efficient players playing in one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL and this all sounds good. So what’s the problem?
Heading into 2023, this San Francisco 49ers offense is still extremely crowded. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk are all extremely talented players that will steal touches from Samuel. He only scored 13 fantasy points per game last year which resulted in a WR28 finish. The added carries are nice but it would be much nicer if those turned into more targets.
We talk about it all the time that a target is approximately 2.5 times more valuable than a carry when talking about why we love running backs with a lot of usage in the passing game so the same holds true for Samuel. This all adds up to Samuel being one of the easiest fantasy football wide receiver fades for 2023. He’s being drafted as the WR16 and the 38th overall player off the board. Pass on Samuel and take players like Christian Watson or Justin Fields instead.
3. George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Body-contorting catches and crazy highlights are cool and all, but they don’t get you extra fantasy points in most leagues. There’s no denying George Pickens is a really fun player but can it translate into consistent success in fantasy football? Heading into last year, he was an interesting prospect as a rookie.
Pickens was drafted in the second round but many considered him to be more talented than that and only fell because of off-the-field issues. He had a decent rookie season in 2022 but nothing spectacular. Pickens caught 52 passes for 801 yards and four touchdowns on 85 targets across all 17 games. That was good for 9.8 fantasy points per game and a WR48 finish. Pickens, like the entire Pittsburgh Steelers team, should take a step forward in 2023. The big question is though: How big is that step forward going to be?
Don’t let this George Pickens TD distract you from the fact that Diontae Johnson had a 43% target share on the Steelers’ first drive of the preseasonpic.twitter.com/3hZPSakgXi
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 11, 2023
Heading into 2023, Diontae Johnson is still the true alpha wide receiver on this team. Some may disagree, but Johnson has seen at least 144 targets in three straight seasons now. He’s caught at least 86 passes in three straight as well. Pickens has a long way to go after seeing fewer targets than Johnson had receptions.
In addition to Johnson, tight end Pat Freiermuth is on the rise and a popular breakout pick as well. The Steelers will also feed Najee Harris plenty of touches as well. That doesn’t leave a whole lot of volume for Pickens, especially if the Steelers are middle-of-the-road or worse as an offense. The expectation is they will be better than last year but still not be a top-ten offense in the NFL. This all makes Pickens one of the biggest fantasy football wide receiver fades for 2023. I’d rather have any of Marquise Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, or Jahan Dotson at wide receiver, all of whom are being drafted after Pickens.
