Each year, heading into draft season, we start to settle upon players we love and players we hate, relative to ADP. This article will dive into the former portion, my fantasy football tight end targets. Every year there are players that outperform their ADP. Identifying these players can significantly help you win your leagues. Here are three tight ends to target in fantasy football for 2023.
READ MORE: Quarterback Sleepers – Running Back Targets – Wide Receiver Targets
Fantasy Football Tight End Targets for 2023
Before we get into these fantasy football targets, I want to preface this by saying that all these are relative to ADP. These are three guys that go later in drafts than they should and represent excellent values in fantasy football drafts right now. These are all based on Fantasypros PPR ADP data as of this writing.
1. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy managers sure do sour on high-end prospects extremely quickly. Just a year ago, Kyle Pitts was nearly everyone’s favorite breakout tight end. He was coming off a historic rookie season in which he caught 68 of his 110 targets for 1,026 yards and a touchdown. He did this as a 21-year-old rookie at one of the hardest positions to transition to in the NFL. The narrative around him was all positive in that he was going to take another step up and see touchdown regression and have a true breakout.
Things didn’t go as planned last year for Pitts and his fantasy managers. He took a step back in production only scoring 7.6 fantasy points per game and finishing as the TE22. Pitts also dealt with injuries as well as first a hamstring strain limited him and then an MCL tear ended his season. He also dealt with absolutely horrible quarterback play last year as he saw the worst catchable pass rate (59%) of any tight end in the NFL last year. The pendulum has swung far too much in the opposite direction when it comes to Pitts, which is usually the case when fantasy managers feel like they’ve been “burned” by a player.
Why I'm 100% in on Kyle Pitts for #FantasyFootball ⤵️ A short 🧵
1. Historically good DC + Prospect Profile
2. 1,000 yard season as a 21 year old rookie and is still just going to be 23 years old and in his 3rd year (the usual time we expect TEs to make leaps) pic.twitter.com/Czrw9ikVQL
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) June 28, 2023
Diving even more into Pitts’ 2022 season, there’s so much to like, aside from the actual production. In regards to the horrible quarterback play, Desmond Ridder is taking over for Marcus Mariota so the catchable pass rate should improve. On top of that, the Falcons threw the ball, on average, six more times per game under Ridder compared to Mariota.
Looking at Pitts’s specific metrics, nearly everything was elite from a pure talent perspective. His target share was 27.3%, second best among all tight ends. His YPRR sat at 2.07, fifth best among all tight ends. Pitts also led all tight ends in TPRR (34.3%) and air yards share (32.9%). Simply put, the man is a stud and just needs his quarterback to not be the worst quarterback in the league. Pitts’ current ADP of 59th overall as the 6th tight end off the board is simply too low as I have him ranked as my TE3 for 2023. He should be drafted ahead of guys like George Kittle, J.K. Dobbins, and Trevor Lawrence. Pitts is a great tight end to target in fantasy football for 2023, especially in full PPR.
2. Darren Waller, New York Giants
Darren Waller had a rough season last year, there’s no other way to put it. He had his worst season since 2018 and missed half the year due to injuries. This comes a year after a somewhat injury-riddled 2021 season as well. The lower body injuries are starting to stack up for a 31-year-old guy that relies on athleticism.
On top of that, the underlying metrics started to dip last year as well. His 18.8% TPRR was the second-lowest of his career. His target share also dipped nearly 10% down to 14.4% which is his lowest since 2018. Waller’s air yards share was still fifth-best among all tight ends at 19.4% while his YPRR was down but still a solid 1.69, 11th-best among all tight ends. The question is whether these dips in his metrics were caused by the injuries or was it truly a decline in skills and athleticism.
I’m betting that the answer to that question is that it was due to injuries. Let’s not forget that Waller was the TE6, TE2, and TE5 in the previous three seasons. His underlying metrics were even better as his air yards shares were fourth, second, and fourth best and his target shares were third, first, and fourth best in those seasons.
Waller is still an athletic freak and now is joining the New York Giants, where he should instantly become the top passing weapon for Daniel Jones. He is currently still going as the 5th tight end (55th player overall) off the board, and often later on most other sites. This price seems fair although he has the upside to finish as a top-three tight end again this year. When Waller slips to TE7 and the mid 70’s like he tends to do in most drafts, it makes him one of the best tight end targets in fantasy football for 2023, especially in PPR formats.
3. Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Chigoziem Okonkwo came out of nowhere last year to post some of the most interesting underlying numbers among all tight ends. Okonkwo was a fourth-round rookie last year and went undrafted in most fantasy drafts. It wasn’t even until Week 11 that he finally ran at least 10 routes in a single game. From that point forward, though, Okonkwo flashed in a big way.
He scored double-digit fantasy points in four of the final six games of the season. The most encouraging part of Okonkwo’s profile was his TPRR (33.3%) and YPRR (3.26). Those were the second-best and best marks among all tight ends last year. That’s a pretty insane feat for a fourth-round rookie with limited playing time.
2022 TE Yards per Route Run Leaders
per @FantasyPtsData1. Chig Okonkwo (2.83)
2. Travis Kelce (2.39)
3. Dallas Goedert (2.10)
4. George Kittle (2.06)
5. Mark Andrews (1.97)Chig Okonkwo clearly has ELITE POTENTIAL
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) July 20, 2023
As previously mentioned, the playing time was extremely limited. On the season, Okonkwo only had a 30.3% route participation. That number is a lock to improve but to what extent is the question? If Okonkwo can push for 70% route participation, that would be massive considering how good his TPRR and YPRR were last year.
DeAndre Hopkins signing with the Titans has also thrown some cold water on the Okonkwo hype train for a true breakout as his path to targets is more difficult now. That being said, his ADP continues to drop. Right now Okonkwo is being taken as the 15th tight end, and 138th overall player, off the board. That is way too low for a player with this archetype. I have Okonkwo as my 13th-ranked tight end and would gladly take him ahead of Cole Kmet, Adam Thielen, and any kicker or defense. This makes him one of the best tight end targets in fantasy football for 2023, especially if looking for upside.
Main Photo: Dale Zanine – USA Today Sports
