Each year, heading into draft season, we start to settle upon players we love and players we hate, relative to ADP. This article will dive into the former portion, my fantasy football running back sleepers. Every year there are players that outperform their ADP. Identifying these players can significantly help you win your leagues. Here are three running backs to target in fantasy football for 2023.
READ MORE: Quarterback Sleepers
Fantasy Football Running Back Targets for 2023
Before we get into these fantasy football sleepers, I want to preface this by saying that all these are relative to ADP. These are three guys that go later in drafts than they should and represent excellent values in fantasy football drafts right now. These are all based on Fantasypros PPR ADP data as of this writing.
1. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb has been one of the best running backs in the NFL since he entered the league in 2018. Over the last five years, he’s averaged better than five yards per carry every season. He’s also scored at least eight touchdowns every season and rushed for more than 1,000 yards each year as well, aside from his rookie season in which he had 996 rushing yards.
Over the last four seasons, Chubb has averaged at least 15 fantasy points per game and finished as a top-10 running back every year as well. The problem, however, is that he’s never finished better than RB6 despite being considered a top-three running back talent by most people. The reason for that has been the presence of Kareem Hunt, who has limited Chubb’s workload a bit, especially in the passing game. Chubb has only topped 27 receptions once in his five-year career and never had more than 278 receiving yards. That all looks likely to change this year.
Nick Chubb PPG last 4 yrs:
-2019: 15.9 (RB10)
-2020: 17.3 (RB7)
-2021: 15.4 (RB10)
-2022: 16.6 (RB6)Nick Chubb tgts/rec/snap% last 4 yrs:
-2019: 50/36/71.0%
-2020: 18/16/48.6%
-2021: 25/20/51.7%
-2022: 37/27/56.7%2023: Kareem Hunt is gone…
Nick Chubb to the moon 🚀🌙
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) July 27, 2023
Heading into 2023, Chubb should be in line for the best situation of his career. Hunt is no longer on the Browns and they only have Jerome Ford behind Chubb currently. Ford is a fine running back but shouldn’t challenge Chubb for as many touches as Hunt has the past few years. This should allow Chubb to see career highs in snap share, touches, targets, and receptions. On top of that, the Browns’ offense should be better than ever, assuming Watson gets back to anywhere near the player he’s been prior to last season.
Combine a career-high in usage (especially in the passing game), a better offense, Chubb’s talent as a player, and his current ADP of 15th overall as the sixth running back off the board is too low. I’ve recently moved him up to my RB4 and a top-12 overall player. He should be drafted ahead of players like Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown, all of whom are being taken ahead of him right now. Chubb is a great running back to target in fantasy football for 2023.
2. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard was one of the biggest steals in fantasy football drafts in 2022. Going as the 33rd running back off the board and 86th overall player on average, he finished as the RB8 in full PPR points per game, averaging 15.6 points per game. Pollard did this despite a 50.9% snap share and a 48.1% opportunity share. Ultimately that amounted to only 193 carries and 39 receptions on 55 targets. He was selected after players like Hunter Renfrow and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, among many others. This was because Ezekiel Elliott was still around and was a borderline workhorse running back the previous season. Instead, Pollard finished the season with more touches and was clearly the more effective and explosive back.
Like Chubb, Pollard should be looking at his best career situation in 2023. Elliott is likely gone and even if he does come back, it will be in a minor role. Pollard should be looking at a big spike in snap share and opportunity share. It wouldn’t be surprising at all, given how talented he is both as a runner and a pass-catcher if he sees somewhere near 250 carries and 75 targets. He is currently still going as the ninth running back (21st player overall) off the board, sometimes slipping into the third round. This is too low as Pollard is my RB5 this season and a top-15 overall player. He should be drafted ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams, and Patrick Mahomes. Pollard has the upside to be the top running back and player in fantasy football and that makes him one of the best running back targets in fantasy football for 2023.
3. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon has been a polarizing running back among fantasy managers for years now. Early in his career, people were excited about him after he was graded as a high-end talent that fell in the draft due to character issues. The landing spot with the Bengals was nice as well. Mixon played well in his rookie season and followed that up with a great sophomore campaign.
In the next two seasons, his efficiency dipped and he got hurt so plenty of fantasy managers soured on him due to being “burned” by him. That made Mixon an incredible value heading into 2021 and he delivered with 18.0 fantasy points per game as the RB5. He was still a value pick last year albeit not quite the same. Still, Mixon was fine as the RB7 with 16.1 fantasy points per game. Despite that, fantasy managers have still soured on Mixon because of efficiency concerns and are pushing him outside the top-12 at the position heading into 2023.
Just a Saturday afternoon PSA:
Joe Mixon is still being drafted at his floor and if he lands on the good side of TD variance (very possible on one of the best offenses in the league), he has top 5 upside
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) July 22, 2023
As previously mentioned, Mixon is being a bit disrespected. Part of that is the efficiency concerns and part of it was off-the-field issues including both contract and legal issues. The contract issue has been resolved and it seems likely the legal issue isn’t going to affect him this season so he has been moving up draft boards recently but it’s still not enough.
In 2022, Mixon set career highs in targets (74), receptions (60), and receiving yards (441). He ranked seventh in targets, fifth in receptions, sixth in receiving yards, seventh in target share, 11th in YPRR, and seventh in opportunity share. The biggest concern to his workload, Samaje Perine, is in Denver now. There’s no reason to expect a different workload for Mixon in 2023 on a Bengals team looking to run it back and compete for a Super Bowl again. Sure, the efficiency isn’t ideal but his role and workload in this offense is simply too good for him to be drafted this late.
Right now, Mixon is being taken as the 15th running back, and 37th overall player, off the board. I have Mixon as my 12th-ranked running back and an easy third-round pick. He should be drafted ahead of guys like Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Joe Burrow, making him one of my favorite running back targets for 2023 in full PPR formats.
Main Image: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
