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Derrick Henry 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Derrick Henry has been an elite fantasy football asset for years, but can the former second-round pick keep it up in his age-29 season?
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The ageless wonder! 29-year-old Derrick Henry has been an elite fantasy football asset for years and now enters his eighth season in the NFL, all with the Tennessee Titans. The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner, Henry has been the league leader in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns (2019 & 2020).

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2023 Fantasy Football Profile: Derrick Henry

King Henry

Through his first five seasons, Henry never missed more than one game in each season. Unfortunately, in 2021 Henry suffered a broken foot in Week 8 and only played eight regular season games. Come 2022, King Henry was once again a reliable player. Henry started 16 of the 17 regular season games for the Titans.

Derrick Henry ended 2022 as the fantasy football RB3 in standard scoring leagues and RB4 for PPR leagues. In 2021 from Week 1 through his foot injury in Week 8, Henry was again the RB1 running back in fantasy football. 2020 was a similar story with King Henry leading all running backs in standard scoring formats. 2019 had Henry second to only Christian McCaffery.

In 2022 Derrick Henry carried the ball 349 times for 1,538 yards averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Derrick Henry reached the end zone 13 times on the ground and had a career year catching the ball. Henry was targeted 41 times and caught 33 passes, 14 more than his previous career high of 19 in 2020. Henry racked up 398 receiving yards, eclipsing his previous high of 206 in 2019.

A King or A Peasant?

28-29 years old is when running backs typically see a drastic drop in production. Per ESPN stats: Among those who debuted since 2000, running backs experienced a 25.2% decline in PPR points per game, and 37.0% in total PPR points scored, from their age-28 to age-29 seasons. Only 11 running backs have reached their age-28 and 29 seasons since 2010 and the group saw a 16.8% decline in PPR points per game going from ages 26 to 27, an 8.4% decline going from 27 to 28 and a 15.3% decline going from 28 to 29.

Players like Shaun Alexander, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, and Deuce McAllister saw a major dip in numbers during their age-29 season. As we approach 2023, some teams have already given up on their stars at age 28. Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook both were sent packing this offseason by the teams they have been stars on since being drafted.

So, what, if anything, makes Henry different? The age question is always going to linger, players like Tom Brady beat father time for longer than most expected, and greats like Peyton Manning seemingly woke up one day and just weren’t the same player, “fell off a cliff” if you will.

When you draft Derrick Henry in your fantasy football league, age is a risk you’ll just have to accept. For most of his career, Henry has just been a reliable bruising back that continues to get the job done. There was concern last year about age, but Henry managed to finish as the third-ranked running back.

Averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 349 attempts and adding the pass-catching stats is enough for me to trust the 6’-3” 247-pounder to get it done for just one more season. The Titan’s strength of schedule is the fourth easiest for the running back position to face according to FantasyPros. Going as the 18th player overall and seventh running back off the board on average in a PPR league according to Sleeper, Henry can be a big difference maker for you.

Main Photo: Denny Simmons – USA Today Sports

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