No team had a more disappointing 2022 than the Denver Broncos. The trade for Russell Wilson was supposed to lead to Super Bowl contention. Instead, the most memorable part of the season will likely be Wilson’s ill-fated phrase “Broncos country… Let’s Ride”, which even Denver fans started using as a coping mechanism while watching their season unravel. This Broncos season preview will assess whether the Sean Payton hiring can somehow help Wilson get back in the saddle.
AFC West Preview – Denver Broncos
Draft Analysis: C+
This off-season felt somewhat bleak for Denver, in part because the trade for Wilson hamstrung their ability to substantially improve. The first pick they had this draft was the last pick of the second round, where they selected receiver Marvin Mims. Mims feels like an odd choice as his skillset is somewhat redundant to what Denver already has in KJ Hamler. He is undersized and explosive, but it’s often difficult to judge Big 12 receivers due to a lack of defense in the conference. Mims will at minimum provide solid depth in case Denver continues to experience injuries at the position.
The best pick Denver made came in stealing Drew Sanders in the third round. He has the athleticism and versatility to immediately push for playing time as an off-ball linebacker. Third-round corner Riley Moss has starter traits given his big frame and instincts. With a great cornerback group to learn from, Moss is a good bet to develop into a steal himself. Ultimately, given their depleted draft capital, the Broncos did very well with what they had to work with.
Season Outlook: 7-10
Quarterback
Russell Wilson’s fall from grace may be the most sudden and shocking collapse we have ever seen from a former elite quarterback. Up until last season, it felt like his path to the Hall of Fame was all but assured. Now it almost feels like he would need an all-time redemption story to even be in the league three years from now. That’s how bad Wilson was last season. Diving into why he collapsed, a few things stand out:
- Lack of Mobility: Russell Wilson’s greatness was never his ability to pick teams apart from the pocket. When Wilson was at his best, he was extending plays and buying himself enough time to find a receiver downfield. 2022 Wilson appeared slow and generally out of shape; even when he did try to escape the pocket, he was getting chased down by guys who wouldn’t have landed a finger on him in the past.
- Lack of Awareness: This presented itself in a few different forms. One was his general lack of self-awareness by doing bizarre things like having office hours for his teammates. He also generally didn’t seem to grasp the offensive concepts. Blame coaching all you want, but calling audibles using Seattle terminology is inexcusable.
Can Wilson be fixed? Maybe, but it’s going to take Wilson handling a reality check that he isn’t a classic pocket passer. Pete Carroll knew for years that letting “Russ Cook” was a mistake, despite the public clamoring of his star quarterback. And that’s okay! Russell Wilson was elite by doing things his way, and his hope for redemption is getting back to the mobile quarterback that would give defenses fits. It’s doubtful that version of him still exists, but if anyone can find it Sean Payton is the coach to do it.
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Offense
Denver’s offensive line gives them a great building block as they attempt to get things going under a new staff. Garett Bolles appears to have turned the corner from an early career penalty machine to a quality left tackle. The signing of Mike McGlinchey from San Francisco gives the unit solid bookend tackles. Quinn Meinerz has solidified himself as one of the best young guards in the league. If they can get better play from Lloyd Cushenberry II there might not be a weak link on this line.
The skill position group also contains a ton of promise. Jerry Jeudy feels like he’s better quarterback play from breaking out at some point. He runs incredible routes and separates very well. Courtland Sutton is at worst a solid #2 option in a good passing attack and should be better in his second year coming back from a major injury. Speaking of coming back from injury, Javonte Williams should not be slept on in the backfield. Prior to going down last season, he showed incredible tackle-breaking ability. He should have another chance at earning a workhorse role this season. Tight end Greg Dulcich gives this group yet another breakout candidate. As a rookie, he displayed rare speed and separation ability for a tight end. Like the rest of this group, he’ll be hoping that better quarterback play can take his production to another level.
Defense
Denver’s defense is anchored by their superstar duo of Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons in the secondary. Surtain is on the league’s short list of lockdown corners and has the chance to get even better. Simmons has been one of the most productive do-it-all safeties in the league in the past few years. He consistently impacts the game from all over the field, reminiscent of a young Harrison Smith. If the young guys Denver surrounded these two with can learn from their tutelage, this will be a top-tier secondary.
Denver went with the free agency route to build a solid front seven to complement their homegrown secondary. Frank Clark and Zach Allen are both great additions that should provide a ton of interior pressure. Randy Gregory is always a bit of a wild card, but there’s no denying his ability. If he’s right, then Denver should have a solid all-around pass rush. Josey Jewell and a combination of Sanders and Alex Singleton round out a promising linebacking corps. If the offense can somehow get to 22-23 points a game, then this defense should make Denver competitive.
Post Schedule Release Prediction: 6-11
Denver faces an uphill battle in a division featuring two of the best teams in the NFL. Going through the simulation, this outcome almost felt generous given the brutal schedule. Denver fans are hoping desperately that the old version of Wilson is still in there. This is a bet that it’s just not going to happen.
**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.
Main Photo: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
