AFC South Preview – Tennessee Titans

No coach has done a better job than Mike Vrabel in getting the most out of his teams. The Titans have squeezed every ounce of success out of a roster lacking stars and a true franchise quarterback. 2022 was finally the year where things started to cave in on a roster desperately needing a facelift. This Titans season preview will assess whether they did enough this off-season to upgrade their roster.

Draft Analysis: A-

The Titans had a lot of work to do going into the draft and only a handful of picks with which to do it. The good news is that Tennessee got great value in the first few rounds. There was a lot of speculation that Tennessee would reach for Will Levis with #12 overall. Instead, they went with Peter Skoronski to shore up an offensive line starved for talent. Skoronski might be the safest offensive lineman in the draft and could be a pro bowler inside or out. The Titans were then able to swoop back in and grab Levis early in the second round. That’s about where he should have been taken as he’s a project at this stage who needs seasoning. Burning a second-round pick to find out if he’s the answer is a lot better than using a first.

Running back Tyjae Spears was Tennessee’s last pick of note with their remaining picks. He likely won’t ever be a starter in the league, but he should provide a good change of pace to spell Derrick Henry. The Titans still have a lot of work to do in adding young talent to the roster. But if Levis turns into a franchise quarterback, they’ll be off to a fantastic start.

Season Outlook: 5-12

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill projects to be the starter until the wheels fall off this season (which they very well might). When he started last year, the Titans were actually a respectable 6-6. The numbers are never going to be eye-popping, but Tannehill limits mistakes and typically gives Tennessee a chance to win. He’s a solid game manager built in the mold of a prime Alex Smith. If a team can play good defense and control the clock with the run game, he can have success. Unfortunately, he’s more of a quarterback at team wins in spite of rather than because of. For that reason, Levis will likely get a showcase at some point this season.

Offense

The offense continues to be built around an old-school ground-and-pound approach featuring an aging Derrick Henry. The truth is that the play-to-play efficiency numbers haven’t been great for Henry. He typically relies on wearing a defense down and eventually breaking big plays in the second level, where he has the speed to run away from linebackers and the size to plow through defensive backs. Therefore, he needs to receive a large volume of touches to find regular success. Last season he continued to get those touches as the offense’s workhorse, logging the most carries in the league. It’s safe to wonder how much more wear and tear Henry’s body can handle going into his age 29 season.

Before the Titans signed Deandre Hopkins last week, there wasn’t much skill position talent on the roster outside of Henry. Their leading returning receiver would have been Chigoziem Okonkwo who had a whopping 450 yards. The move to trade AJ Brown for Treylon Burks still won’t look great if he doesn’t break out this year, but at least the Titans don’t need him to as desperately with Hopkins on board. If Hopkins can maintain his high level of play and Burks does take a major leap, this offense might beat expectations.

If the lack of skill position talent wasn’t enough, Henry will also be running behind a mediocre offensive line. Andre Dillard was brought in to presumably play left tackle after flaming out in Philadelphia. Projected right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere has generally played poorly to this point and is now suspended six games for gambling. Outside of Skoronski, there isn’t much to get excited about with this group. Overall, if there aren’t a few surprise breakouts, this could be one of the worst offenses in football this season.

Defense

Led by a deep pass rush and secondary, Tennessee features one of the most complete defenses in the league. Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry anchor them up front by getting consistent interior pressure on the defensive line. That should allow Harold Landry and Arden Key to wrack up some solid sack numbers off the edge. If there is a weakness on the front seven, it’s the lack of a proven inside linebacker. Monty Rice flashed at times last season, and the hope is that he can step up and be the impact linebacker that can complete an otherwise stout front seven.

The unheralded star of the secondary continues to be Kevin Byard. He has been one of the most underrated safeties in the league throughout his career and continues to make plays. Kristian Fulton has been a solid corner throughout his career. If Caleb Farley can make good on his potential and finally break through, then this secondary could get even better. Given the offense’s projected putridness, a lot of weight is going to have to be shouldered by this defense for the Titans to find success in 2023.

Post Schedule Release Prediction: 4-13

The Titans are certainly a team that feels in flux going into 2023. Even with a proven head coach in a bad division, finding wins on the schedule was tough. Maybe Will Levis will come in and play a lot better early than expected, but this team feels like a contender for one of the quarterbacks at the top of next year’s draft class.

**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.

Main Photo: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK