2022 was an exciting year in Duval County. Trevor Lawrence emerged as the franchise savior he was advertised to be, putting the Urban Meyer year behind him. They even managed an incredible comeback playoff win against the Chargers before flaming out in Kansas City. This Jaguars season preview will determine whether or not they can continue building on their 2022 foundation.
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2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Season Preview
Draft Analysis: C
The Jaguars went into this draft with a boatload of picks and a real opportunity to upgrade a flawed roster. Suffice it to say that it appears they failed to do so to a meaningful degree. Starting with Anton Harrison in the first round, the draft was filled with reaches that have loads of bust potential. Harrison has the size teams look for in a starting tackle but displays stiffness and slow feet that could be an issue at the pro level. He graded more as an athletic second or third-round prospect with traits than a sure-fire starter teams typically hope to find in the first.
In the second round, Jacksonville dipped into a deep tight end class by drafting Brenton Strange out of Penn State. He’s a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect that gives Jacksonville a more conventional tight end and should allow Evan Engram to spend more time in the slot. The Tank Bigsby pick was one of the better picks Jacksonville made. He should be a fun change of pace to Travis Etienne and provide solid depth for a back with major injuries in his past.
Jacksonville added a whopping ten picks on Day 3. It’s always difficult to project players taken on the third day, but a few stand out. Antonio Johnson is an instinctual safety that was getting first-round buzz at this point last year. He lacked consistency but still displays the traits that could make him a quality starter at the next level. Cooper Hodges in the seventh round also displays traits that could make for a lengthy NFL career as a backup. The tape shows a ferocious player with no quit, and those guys are generally good bets to stick around.
Jaguars Season Preview: 11-6 (Division Winner)
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence came into the league as a once-in-a-decade type of prospect. After enduring one of the most challenging rookie seasons in recent memory, he developed into a star in 2022. What might be scary for the league is that he still has substantial room to grow.
He still misses some easy throws that he’s going to need to consistently make at the NFL level. It’s something he showed great improvement on throughout the season, so there’s reason to believe he’ll continue to do so. Going into his second year under Doug Peterson, an MVP run might be in the cards for the first Jaguars franchise quarterback since David Garrard.
Offense
The Jaguars spent a ton of money on the offensive side of the ball the past few offseasons. Frankly, they overpaid for a lot of those guys and are still a very middling group on offense. The offensive line could be a disaster with the suspension of Cam Robinson. Outside of stud guard Brandon Scherff, there may not be another league-average starter on the line. Lawrence and Etienne managed fine without a decent line last year and it looks like they’ll need to repeat that feat in 2023.
Jacksonville also paid receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones like they’re real go-to NFL options. Kirk was an afterthought in Arizona and Jones was considered a bust until reviving his career as a Raider. They were fine in 2022 but any hope of an above-average receiving corps comes down to Calvin Ridley’s return. Reports are that he’s been tearing up camp, so maybe there’s hope for a return without rust.
Trevor Lawrence throwing with Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk
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— ETNSZN (@duvalwall) July 13, 2023
Outside of Lawrence’s progression, the most impactful events in Jacksonville last year were the surprising emergences of Evan Engram and Etienne. Etienne was a first-round pick, so maybe it shouldn’t have been that surprising. However, he showed burst and playmaking ability that transcended what he showed in college. Etienne was also frustratingly underused at certain points in the year. It took Pederson and Co too long to realize Etienne was their best overall weapon and to quit misplaying him as a third down scat back, but going into 2023 he should be the bell cow from the start.
Defense
Jacksonville’s defense will be extremely reliant on their young pass-rushing duo taking a major leap this coming season. Josh Allen has shown tantalizing promise and production at times early in his career; he just hasn’t been able to string a consistent run together. He oozes speed and twitchiness, so the potential for a breakout is certainly there.
The same can be said for last year’s first-overall pick, Travon Walker. Jacksonville decided to try to outsmart the room and take him ahead of sure-thing Aiden Hutchinson, but Walker showed some potential despite a lackluster season. If one or both of their young edge rushers break out, Jacksonville might avoid another bad defensive year.
The anchor of Jacksonville’s defense is a solid linebacking corps headlined by another breakout candidate in Devin Lloyd. Lloyd showed promise as a potential rare sideline to sideline mike linebacker but faded a bit late. Perhaps year two can provide that end-to-end consistency (a common theme here).
Foyesade Oluokon is a solid starter at the other linebacker spot and another member of the overpaid club. Rounding things out, the secondary is a solid unit overall that added some depth in the draft. They won’t be the reason this defense finds success, but they’re also not going to be the problem. Overall, if a few young guys can take big steps this year Jacksonville could rise above the 11-6 projection.
The 4th Seed in the AFC
This is the rare case where the simulation result matched with what was expected in the Jaguars season preview. The Jaguars are definitely the class of the AFC South for the foreseeable future and should benefit from that schedule. In this case, the highlight of their season was coming away with a revenge victory over Kansas City. There is a lot of reason for optimism in Jacksonville and that should continue following another divisional crown.
**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.
Main Photo: Corey Perrine – USA Today Sports
