The Colts spent 2022 shuffling through another lost season with yet another washed veteran quarterback. This offseason, the Colts finally went out and altered that pattern by drafting Anthony Richardson third overall. This Colts season preview will determine whether going young at quarterback will breathe life into a stalled franchise.
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AFC South Preview – Indianapolis Colts
Draft Analysis: C+
Everyone knew coming into the offseason that the Colts were once again in the market for a quarterback. Armed with the fourth overall pick, they had the assets to go get their choice of quarterback first overall when the Bears were shopping their pick. Well, Indianapolis didn’t do that. In what was essentially a two-quarterback draft, the Colts ended up with what can only be called a project by taking the third one in the class. Anthony Richardson has an incredibly high ceiling but a very low likelihood of getting there. More on Richardson will follow in the quarterback section below.
What the Colts were able to do on day two of the draft saved their grade. Corner Julius Brents is a tall, physical corner who can play press and tackle like a safety on the edge. He has some rawness to his game but 6’3’’ corners are difficult to find, and Brents has star potential. Receiver Josh Downs slipped to Indianapolis in the third and he should be a year-one contributor. He can play inside and outside despite his smaller stature and should be a solid complimentary piece.
On day three, the Colts added a ton of depth on the defensive side of the ball. Notably, fourth-round edge Adetomiwa Adebawore has the raw measurables to turn into a real contributor with time. He ran a freakish 4.49 at the combine at 280 pounds! Regardless of how nice the rest of the class was, this draft is ultimately going to be determined by Richardson and what he does or more likely doesn’t accomplish.
Season Outlook: 4-13
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson might be the most athletically gifted quarterback to ever come out of college football. He has ridiculous arm talent to go with ludicrous size and speed. He also has a significant history of getting dinged up in college and a propensity to turn the ball over. To top it off, he’s by no means a polished passer by any stretch. If there’s a reason for optimism, it’s that Richardson’s a fluid passer that can layer the football; quarterbacks with stiffer mechanics such as Paxton Lynch or Lamar Jackson tend to never improve on that front.
Richardson will likely start the year backing up Gardner Minshew until the calls to play him get too loud. There might also be the opportunity for a few wins to be had given the soft AFC South schedule, but anything short of a promising first look for Richardson might have the Colts looking ahead at next year’s quarterback class.
Offense
Just a year ago, it appeared that Indianapolis featured one of the league’s best running games behind one of the league’s top offensive lines. For the Colts to regain that identity, Quenton Nelson has to return to All-Pro form. The same could be said for stalwart center Ryan Kelly who had a down year in 2022. If those two can raise their play, Jonathan Taylor should be able to recapture his elite production. Taylor looked great on tape when healthy last season; it just often felt like he was doing most of the work on his own. If the line can start opening things up and Taylor stays healthy, the running game could get back on track.
On the perimeter, the Colts continue to lack a true threat in the passing game. Both Michael Pittman and Josh Downs project better as #2 options than featured targets for a passing attack. There is also scant depth behind them. Indianapolis also has one of the worst stable of tight ends in the league, featuring nobody worth mentioning here. Maybe Jelani Woods breaks out? Regardless, Shane Steichen will have his work cut out for him to reproduce what he did with Justin Herbert in LA and to a more tertiary degree Jalen Hurts in Philly. There isn’t nearly as much weaponry for him to work with in Indy.
Defense
The Colts defense has largely come and gone with the health of Shaq Leonard in recent seasons. Leonard is one of the players that give credence to elite off-ball linebackers being the most valuable defensive players in the league. He can single-handedly turn a bad defense above average and an average defense great. Elsewhere on the front seven, Indianapolis returns the steady run/pass defender DeForest Buckner and breakout edge candidate Kwity Paye. Zaire Franklin also returns as a solid sidekick for Leonard as the strongside linebacker. If Leonard can stay healthy, the front seven should keep this defense afloat.
The secondary, on the other hand, is lacking star power. Kenny Moore has been a dependable corner on one side, but the Colts are putting a lot of faith in Brents to make an impact right away. The safety play of Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas II also leaves a lot to be desired. The Colts are going to have to hope Leonard and their front seven can cover for the holes in their secondary.
Post Schedule Release Prediction: 5-12
In this scenario, Anthony Richardson was conservatively projected to start by Week 6. The Colts chalked up a couple of wins early and won a few shockers at home late. That seems to be in line with how tantalizing prospects like Richardson present. There will be a few weeks of hope mixed into a lot of weeks Colts fans will want to forget. The bad news is that this record would again leave them hovering outside of the range to nab a top quarterback prospect, so Indianapolis might have to be all in on Richardson.
**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.
Main Image: IndyStar-USA TODAY Sports
