Any overconfident finance professional will tell you all about the quantum investment strategy known as “deep value” and how depth is the key to success (even if you didn’t ask). The NFL equivalent is building a deep roster. It’s one of the keys to success, nowhere is that truer than in the quarterback room.
2023’s Top Five Backup Quarterbacks
Kyle Shanahan’s 2022 49ers ably demonstrated how important backup quarterbacks are as their backups repeatedly became starting quarterbacks. Admittedly Shanahan could probably devise a plan to make almost any quarterback succeed. Even so Sam Darnold, Trey Lance, and maybe even Brandon Allen fall squarely into the “honorable mention” category here. Any of them will add some wins if they’re called upon.
Taylor Heinicke
The Green Lizard, as he’s known, always seems to start the season as a backup, but has a knack for winding up as the starting QB sooner or later. Heinicke is only 30, so he will probably be a starter again. He’s already started 25 of the 33 NFL games he’s played in.
Heinicke went undrafted in 2015 but Mike Zimmer’s Vikings signed him as an undrafted free agent. He landed a roster spot as the third QB when Mike Kafka was put on IR. Heinicke wouldn’t actually make his NFL debut until 2017 as a Texan though and it was a brief appearance. He rushed for two yards and threw one pass in week 2; it was caught, and it went for 10 yards. But that was it for the season. He started one game as a Panther in 2018 and then missed the entire 2019 season. In 2020 he signed a contract with the Washington Football Team, and he’s been there for the last three seasons.
Heinicke started 24 games in Washington, winning 12 of them. Not great on the face of it but given the incessant turmoil (a head coach battling cancer, the previous starting quarterback dying in an automobile accident, sexual harassment investigations, and a protracted sale) it could have been far worse.
In Washington Heinicke threw for 5,415 yards in those three seasons, with 33 touchdown passes and two more on the ground. He ran for 431 yards in total at an average of 4.7 yards per attempt. Probably the most important part of his stay in the capital was his five fourth-quarter comebacks though, in his 12 wins Heinicke led five game-winning drives.
It seems unlikely Heinicke will be named the starter in Atlanta but if something happens to Desmond Ridder, they have someone who is more than capable of saving the day.
Bailey Zappe
Zappe is another who could well find himself as a starter sometime this season. There’s a new offensive coordinator in New England and he may well believe Zappe fits his system.
Zappe’s only 233 days younger than current starter Mac Jones, but Jones has an extra season in the NFL under his belt. Presumably, that’s enough to see him start in week 1.
In the four games Zappe played in his lone NFL season, he completed 70.5% of his passes and won both of his starts (which was even more impressive given the Patriots had three different people calling plays and none of them were offensive coaches). He threw five touchdown passes and his 5.4% touchdown rate was higher than Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson’s (although they obviously played a lot more games).
P.J Walker
The key reason PJ Walker is one of 2023’s best backup quarterbacks is where he is. He has the tools to run a similar scheme as Justin Fields. Now, Walker’s tools might not be as sharp as Fields’ but in Luke Getsy’s system, Walker will be able to run the RPO when required or just throw downfield bombs for DJ Moore.
Neither quarterback has a dazzling win-loss record but that’s mainly because they have never really had much talent around them. They do have some similar statistics though; Walker has a 57.5% completion rate compared to Fields’ 59.7% career completion rate. Walker’s net yards per attempt was 5.43 and Fields’ is 5.14.
Walker isn’t the elite running threat Fields is (but really only Lamar Jackson is), he can get out of the pocket, avoid pass rushers and extend plays though. The most important parallel between the two is that they’re both brave, keeping their eyes down the field looking for targets and neither hesitates when it’s time to let the ball fly from a collapsing pocket.
With new talent on the Bears roster (Robert Tonyan particularly) they shouldn’t have to rely on Fields performing miracles anymore. But if something does happen to him the next man up will slip in seamlessly.
Andy Dalton
Picking someone who is completely different from the guy who will be starting ahead of him in Carolina as the fourth most important backup might now seem completely contradictory, but that’s only because it is.
Dalton might not be the most dynamic, or the most exciting quarterback currently playing in the NFL. Bryce Young could be. But in 2022 Andy Dalton was a top 10 QB when it came to completion rate, yards per attempt, QB rating, and net yards per attempt. Despite playing on a Saints team who lost more than they won and finished third in the NFC South, Dalton’s completion rate was the best of his 12-year career.
His interception rate was the third lowest it had been in his entire career. His yards per attempt was the second best in his career since 2015 when A.J Green and Marvin Jones Jr. Were catching the passes. And his touchdowns rate was his highest since 2018.
Dalton is undoubtedly in Carolina to mentor Young. After trading up to get the rookie Carolina will be hoping he won’t have to spend much time on the field. But he does the Panthers have the perfect guy to run an efficient offense?
Cooper Rush
At one stage in 2022, Rush looked like a better starting option than Dak Prescott. That might have been because Prescott wasn’t entirely healthy in 2022 but Mike McCarthy appeared happy to play him.
Rush ended 2022 with a 4-1 record, Prescott’s was 8-4. Rush threw three interceptions and fumbled twice; Prescott threw 15 picks, fumbling four times. But Prescott completed 66.2% compared to Rush’s 58% and Prescott’s 5.8% touchdown rate was 2.7% higher than Rush’s.
There is a new offensive coordinator in Dallas, but Mike McCarthy might still be calling the plays. Having a quarterback who has recently won games definitely counts as building a deep roster. Should Prescott suffer another injury in 2023 Rush will be able to continue where he left off in 2022.
Main Photo: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports
