AFC South Preview – Houston Texans

The 2022 Texans spent the majority of the year tanking very effectively until disaster struck in Week 18. By beating the Colts, the Texans lost out on the first overall pick that seemed to be in their grasp all season. As a result, they missed out on Bryce Young and ended up firing yet another coach. This Texans season preview will examine whether the new regime can succeed better than the past two.

Draft Analysis: B+

The buzz before the draft, that the Texans were not going to go quarterback second overall, was extremely worrisome. Could you imagine if they had run it back in 2023 with Davis Mills and Case Keenum at quarterback? Any remaining fans would have mutinied! Houston put those thoughts to bed when they submitted C.J. Stroud’s name at #2.

Stroud is an exceptional passer with better mobility than he showed most of his career at Ohio State. The biggest knock on Stroud is that he hasn’t always shown a great natural feel for the game and struggles with quickly deciphering what defenses are throwing at him. Some of that is difficult to judge with quarterbacks at powerhouse schools where they often outclass opponents at every position and are typically not asked to do too much. Quarterbacks with great tangibles and concerning intangibles typically have a wide range of outcomes. Stroud certainly comes with a lofty ceiling but also a fair amount of bust potential. The most likely outcome is something similar to a more athletic Kirk Cousins, a better pure passer than football player. No matter what Stroud ends up being long-term, this is a pick Houston had to make in this spot.

The Texans gave up a haul to shockingly jump back up to third overall and snag Will Anderson. For a team that desperately needs All-Pro level talent, the juice appears to be worth the squeeze. Anderson is one of the most polished rushers to come out of college in recent memory and has understated athleticism. Not every elite edge rusher has to look and run like Myles Garrett! Anderson should immediately step in and be the culture setter Houston hasn’t had since J.J. Watt.

Juice Scruggs and Nathaniel Dell, taken in the second and third rounds both felt like reaches where they were taken. Scruggs has solid intangibles and size for a center but lacks the mobility you typically see in the zone running scheme Houston is looking to deploy. Dell is an undersized receiver who projects as a better return man than receiver to start his NFL career. Houston also added some potential contributors with their five picks on day three, but none project to start immediately. Even with some questionable day-two drafting, the aggressiveness in round one gives Houston a winning grade.

Season Outlook: 6-11

Quarterback

Stroud is going to have his work cut out for him in year one at the helm. He is throwing to one of the most unproven receiving groups in the league and has a rookie Offensive Coordinator. The good news is that Houston is going to have very low expectations, allowing him time to grow. Houston also plays in the only weak division in the AFC, so there should be some wins to be had. A good season for Stroud would be for him to show poise in a tough situation and dispel the notion that his lack of intangibles is going to stop him from reaching his ceiling as a franchise quarterback.

Offense

Even after a successful draft, this is still very much a team that’s bereft of offensive talent in key areas. At receiver, Houston added Robert Woods as a veteran presence that the skill position group needed. Bobby Trees might have the best nickname in football, but he can’t be counted on to be more than a complementary piece. Houston’s playmaking hopes ride on Nico Collins taking a major leap and John Metchie returning to form after battling Leukemia. Those are definitely eventualities to cheer for but remain huge ifs. Dalton Schultz and Brevin Jordan are a nice duo of safety blankets, but neither is an elite receiver. Dameon Pierce shocked many as a Florida backup turned rookie star at running back. Look for Houston to need to feature him heavily again in year two.

The offensive line is one of the more interesting units on the roster. They have invested heavily in solid franchise left tackle Laremy Tunsil to anchor a unit that feels taped together. Kenyon Green, who had a dismal year for a first-round guard, is going to have to take a step. Scruggs is also a huge question mark as a first-year starting center. Shaq Mason and Tytus Howard are a suitable duo on the right side, but there isn’t any depth behind them. If everything clicks the offensive line could surprise, but it’s less stable than it should be considering Houston’s investment in the unit.

Defense

On defense, Houston is counting on Will Anderson to single-handedly transform their front seven. The rest of the unit is made up of aging rotational linemen and linebackers that have mostly seen better days. There isn’t really a breakout candidate among the group either. Houston will need to add more talent up front in the coming years to complement Anderson.

The secondary is where the Texans should expect to see a big step forward. They desperately need top 2022 picks Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre to turn into stars. There is even more pressure here because they took Stingley ahead of Sauce Gardner, which could be an all-time miss. A lot of pressure is going to be on the young guys to step up on defense. If they don’t, this has all the makings of a bottom-three defense.

Overall, this team is still a long way from contending in a loaded AFC. They should, however, benefit from playing in a weak division and win more games than one would assume. If they can reel off six wins, there will certainly be some optimism about the future under Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.

Post Schedule Release Prediction: 7-10

As predicted, the Texans won more games in this simulation than their talent level suggests. This was largely in part to a fairly weak schedule by AFC standards. A number of their winnable nondivisional games are also played at home. Those are the types of games that a rookie quarterback going through growing pains can hope to win. Houston achieving a seven-win campaign would certainly be a sign of progress.

**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.

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