Lamar Jackson’s 2023 fantasy football outlook is widely perceived as positive. However, there are reasons for scepticism.
The new offense brings with it a lot of promise. But could it flop? Will Jackson’s injury history be a point of concern this year? All of these are important questions to address before determining whether the 2019 MVP is good value at his current average draft position.
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2023 Fantasy Football Profile: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson 2022 Recap
2022 was a mixed bag for Jackson. He had some inspired performances. However, he also had some underwhelming ones. Couple that with the fact that he missed five games through injury, and it would be fair to say that 2022 was disappointing.
In 2022, the 25-year-old’s stat line was average. Through 12 games, Jackson threw for 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also managed 764 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns but recorded five fumbles.
Per game, Jackson averaged 186.8 passing yards, 63.7 rushing yards, 1.67 total touchdowns and one turnover. He finished as the QB14 in 2022 fantasy, averaging around 20 points per game.
Changing the Perspective on Jackson’s 2022 Fantasy Football Season
During Week 13, Jackson sprained his PCL after just 10 snaps against the Denver Broncos. This left him inactive for the remainder of 2022, including the playoff exit against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Thus, excluding the Broncos game from the per-game metrics provides a more accurate picture of Jackson’s 2022. Over the first 11 games, Jackson averaged the following per-game statistics: 202.8 passing yards, 68.6 rushing yards, 1.82 total touchdowns and 1.09 turnovers.
This offers a rosier perspective on Jackson’s 2022. If the second set of data is extrapolated over 17 games, Jackson would have totalled around 3,448 passing yards, 1,167 rushing yards, 31 total touchdowns and 19 total turnovers.
This would have seen him finish as the QB5 in 2022 (with 362.8 points, per Sleeper’s standard scoring system). That would have placed Jackson alongside Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts and well ahead of the next best quarterback (Geno Smith).
The point is this: yes, Jackson had an underwhelming 2022. However, when he saw the field, he rewarded fantasy managers with elite performances. Had he been able to stay healthy, he would have finished as a top five fantasy quarterback for just the second time in his career so far.
Lamar Jackson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
So maybe 2022 is misconceived by the mainstream press. While Jackson was a disappointment, his per-game averages placed him among elite company. He was, after all, considered in the MVP race for some stretches of the season.
With that established, it is time to look ahead. What does 2023 have in store for Jackson? Will it be a repeat of 2022? Or will Jackson be able to offer more this year?
The Good
The first thing to note is Jackson’s talent. Even in a down year in 2022, Jackson still provided fantasy managers with an elite quarterback option on a weekly basis (when healthy). This floor makes Jackson a highly attractive fantasy asset, with his ceiling allowing for further intrigue.
Jackson’s high floor on a per-week basis is established by his rushing ability. It is common knowledge that mobile quarterbacks are slightly more favoured in fantasy football (see Justin Fields, for example). Jackson’s ability to contribute around 60 rushing yards per game limits his volatility.
The Coaching
The situation that Jackson is in this year is also favourable, according to many analysts. This is mostly due to the arrival of a new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken. Monken’s new offense figures to be run heavy, just like Greg Roman’s was, but the passing game is expected to be elevated. Jackson’s faith in Monken’s new offense was clear when the franchise quarterback said that he wants to throw for “6,000 yards” in 2023.
Should fantasy managers be confident that Jackson will produce in Monken’s offense? While there are reasons for scepticism, the bottom line is that Monken was able to help the Georgia Bulldogs to back-to-back championships with Stetson Bennett. Bennett, a solid if unspectacular athlete, thrived in Monken’s system. For this reason, Jackson should (at the very least) have a high floor in Monken’s offense.
The Personnel
The personnel around Jackson is another positive. The offensive line will have a full season of Ronnie Stanley this year while Tyler Linderbaum is also expected to step up.
In the backfield, J.K. Dobbins is the healthiest he has ever been since 2021. Gus Edwards also returns to full health. This means that Jackson will have less defensive attention and less pressure.
The revamped receiving corps is, perhaps, one of the biggest positives for the Ravens this off-season. Odell Beckham Jr.’s arrival in Baltimore sent waves around the NFL. The ravens doubled down at receiver by drafting Zay Flowers in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft too. Meanwhile, Rashod Bateman returns to full health, as does Devin Duvernay.
New signing Nelson Agholor has impressed at training camp, and so have sophomore tight ends Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar. Amidst all the new faces, Mark Andrews remains an elite tight end.
Reasons to Worry
On-Field Concerns
Despite all the positives, there are a few things that fantasy managers ought to be wary of. Monken’s offense has been hyped up massively so far, but could it stutter? As with any new scheme, there could be a painful teething period towards the start of the year.
There is also a possibility that the scheme will not suit Jackson’s strength as much. Among the changes, one new aspect of the passing game will be the involvement of receiving backs. This is not something that Jackson has prioritised in the past.
Alongside this, there is fear that the new offensive system will not allow Jackson to freestyle as much. The more structured passing attack will result in less encouragement to scramble out of structure. This might limit the big plays that Jackson has on the ground as an improviser.
Needless to say, health is another concern. Jackson has not stayed fully healthy for two seasons now. What says that 2023 will be different? If Jackson runs less in 2023, he may be more likely to stay unscathed. But last year’s injury came on a non-scrambling play. Maybe it is just the reality that Jackson will never play more than 12-14 games a year.
Off-Field Concerns
Jackson’s health is not the only health-related concern. Last year, after Bateman went down, the air attack took a step back. This could happen again this year. Beckham returns from a major injury and Bateman has struggled to stay healthy. Dobbins and Stanley have also had health concerns of late. While Monken’s offense hopes to mitigate any potential losses, there is no doubt that losing any of these could change the offense for the worse.
It is also the case that Jackson’s long-term future has been settled. With a new deal udner the belt, will Jackson’s play take a step back? This has been a common occurrence for players straight after receiving lucrative contracts. However, it is worth noting that Jackson being in a contract year in both 2021 and 2022 did not elevate his overall production in either year.
Lamar Jackson Average Draft Position in Fantasy Football Drafts
According to FantasyPros, Jackson is currently the QB5, meaning he sits at around the 35-40 range among all players. Given how he performed in 2022, some would say that he is ranked too high. However, drafting him as the fifth quarterback brings excellent value.
In 2022, Jackson’s per-game average would have made him QB5. That was in Roman’s outdated offense. This suggests that, on a per-week basis, Jackson can be expected to offer elite performances for fantasy managers. With Monken now calling the offense, the ceiling is much higher.
Given Jackson’s previous seasons as well as the news around him this off-season, it is reasonable to expect a productive year. In 2023, fantasy managers should draft Jackson with the expectation that he will provide around 4,000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
Despite the positive outlook, drafting Jackson ahead of Joe Burrow, Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes would be ill-advised. However, he certainly belongs alongside Jalen Hurts in that next tier.
For managers (justifiably) concerned with Jackson’s health, there are three options. The first option is to draft a late-round, reliable quarterback. This is someone who will start games and give solid performances but generally have a limited ceiling. In 2023, that could be Desmond Ridder or Sam Howell.
The second option would be to draft/acquire Tyler Huntley as a handcuff. If Jackson were to suffer an injury, Huntley would immediately step in. He has less mobility than Jackson, but the 2022 Pro Bowler can manage a game just fine. This is the perfect option for those that have faith in Monken and Baltimore’s offense. It is also a good option for managers in larger leagues.
The final option is to work the waivers. This will be risky and will put teams at the mercy of free agents. However, picking up in-form quarterbacks off the waiver wire on a weekly basis will work if Jackson only misses a few weeks. This would be the preferred strategy in smaller leagues when more quarterbacks will be available.
Lamar Jackson has led all players in fantasy points per game since entering the league ⭐️pic.twitter.com/Auv2cbiw2n
— Legit Football (@_legitfootball) July 5, 2023
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
