AFC East Preview – Miami Dolphins

Mike McDaniel and his entourage of speed demons took the league by storm early in 2022. It felt like only injuries to Tua Tagovailoa stopped Miami from truly competing at the top of the AFC. This Dolphins season preview will seek to determine if a healthy Tagovailoa is enough for Miami to contend.

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Draft Analysis: B-

The Dolphins did not have many picks to work with on draft night. They had two first rounders at one point but got one taken away for tampering and lost the other in a trade for Bradley Chubb. The good news for Miami is they made the most out of the picks they had.

Cam Smith falling to Miami late in the second round could be a steal. He projects as a surefire NFL starter at corner given his size and coverage skills, which is rare to find in corner prospects. Taking running back Devon Achane in the third adds even more speed to the fastest offense in the NFL. Teams that lean into identities are typically better than those that do not. There is no doubt they are trying to win track meets in Miami right now.

Season Outlook: 8-9

Quarterback

The start of Tagovailoa’s career has been a fascinating one. He was inserted into the starting lineup in the middle of his rookie season and was seemingly benched every other week. Then, the past two seasons, he has shown flashes of promise only to be derailed by injuries.

Going into year four, Tagovailoa actually has a higher winning percentage as a starter than both Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. There are a lot of caveats that come with that stat, but it does showcase that Tagovailoa has found a level of success when he has been available. However, availability continues to be a concern, and Tagovailoa has flaws as a quarterback beyond that. Despite this, given that Miami has the most explosive weaponry in the league, the Dolphins should be able to compete for a playoff birth if their signal-caller stays healthy.

Offense

Regardless of Tagovailoa’s availability, this offense runs through the league’s best, and fastest, receiving duo. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can score from anywhere on the field. It always feels like the Dolphins are in the game with those two on the field.

The weaponry could get even scarier if Miami does add Dalvin Cook to an already dynamic running back room. Jeff Wilson is an underrated runner, and Achane is another threat to score every time he touches the ball.

If there is a concern with this offense, it is along the offensive line. Signing Connor Williams and Terron Armstead in recent off-seasons greatly improved the talent level. Armstead, however, has never played a full season and Williams is sitting out amidst a contract dispute. If the unit as a whole can stay healthy, Miami could have the most entertaining offense to watch in the league.

Defense

Miami’s addition of Jalen Ramsey could be the most important addition by any team this offseason. Analytics might say that Ramsey’s play diminished a bit, but the tape still shows a rare difference maker on the perimeter that opponents try to avoid. Ramsey opposite Xavien Howard gives this defense the clear and rare identity of being built around an All-Pro corner duo.

The Dolphins also feature the type of pass rush that should allow for plenty of turnover opportunities. A full season of Bradley Chubb rushing opposite Jaelan Phillips and you could imagine the need for a second turnover chain to be brought out in Miami. Elsewhere, Christian Wilkins and Jerome Baker serve as underrated pieces to round out a solid front seven.

Post Schedule Release Prediction: 9-8

The Dolphins are going to be a fascinating team this year. Miami feels like a team that is going to have trouble against bad teams with rugged, veteran defenses like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but can win track meets with teams like the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.

Miami start the year against several of said rugged teams featuring defenses that match up well against their finesse. For that reason, the bet is that Miami narrowly misses the playoffs, but there is certainly upside for more.

**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.

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