Las Vegas is a wild, wild place but their oddsmakers know what they are talking about. That’s what makes the odds for the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year fascinating, or bemusing.
Who Vegas Oddsmakers Think Will Be 2023 NFL Coach Of The Year
The Ultimate Players’ Coach
Punters have either been sucked into the Hard Knocks hype or really love a man with a Scottish name. They have been rushing to back Dan Campbell. He is the current favourite to bag the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year award. Campbell is +820. That is understandable from the point of view that his Detroit Lions won eight of their last 10 games. However, Detroit lost their highest scoring player from 2022 though. Jamaal Williams upped sticks and signed with the New Orleans Saints. They do have David Montgomery and exciting rookie Jahmyr Gibbs replacing him though.
The more pertinent point relating to the 2023 Lions and Campbell’s chances is turnover in his coaching team for this season. Assistant head coach Duce Staley went to Carolina and has been replaced by Scottie Montgomery. Montgomery was previously the Indianapolis Colts running backs coach.
Tanner Engstrand has moved from tight ends coach to become passing game coordinator. Steve Heiden replaced him as tight ends coach. Heiden, who played in the league for 10 years, was previously the tight ends coach for the Arizona Cardinals.
Dre Thompson has joined from the Denver Broncos to become a defensive quality control coach too. Five more coaches also have new titles, but those appear to factor into how they perform their pre-existing roles.
Campbell’s approach of loading his team up with young, former players to create a player-friendly environment is intriguing. Assistant linebackers coach, Shaun Dion Hamilton, is just 27 and assistant quarterbacks coach J.T Barrett is the same age as Jared Goff (28). Most players will relate more to coaches who have experience performing tasks they are asking players to perform. So, there is a strong argument that Cambell is the smartest head coach in the league regardless of 2023’s results. Even with that said, the Lions are among the top-ten likeliest to win the Super Bowl, according to oddsmakers.
Dan Campbell isn't letting anything get in the Lions' way this season @brgridiron
Hard Knocks is streaming on @hbomax pic.twitter.com/OYku8Y43Qz
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 16, 2022
The Wild One
Second favourite is where the wildness begins. It is Sean Payton. Yes, that is right, the analyst on Fox Sports last season. His odds are +900. Payton has been making headlines ever since it was rumoured that he would return to coaching in the NFL. Back in January ESPN were asking what it would take for a team to get Payton from the Saints. Last month his withering assessment of Russell Wilson’s 2022 season set tongues a-wagging. “It was hard tape to watch” he said of Wilson, the quarterback he has been charged with coaching in 2023.
Apart from having a quarterback who he does not seem to be impressed by, Payton has also got 20 new coaches working under him. Therefore, he is working with a new team of players as well as a new team of coaches this season. That is a lot of plates to spin in 2023.
The Broncos only won five games in 2022. Thus, the bar for a successful season for the Broncos is very low.
Sean Payton is the perfect hire for Russell Wilson, perfect.
Under Sean Payton:
Drew Brees: Super Bowl MVP
Teddy Bridgewater: 5-1
Jameis Winston: 5-2
Taysom Hill: 7-2
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) January 31, 2023
The Understandable Odds
Depending on who you ask, either Robert Saleh or Matt Eberflus is third favourite at +1200, and either option is quite understandable. Although the fate of both is dependent on the health of their respective quarterbacks.
Justin Fields looks to be a quarterback who can lead a team to a winning season, but the Chicago Bears backup quarterbacks have only won five NFL games between them. Aaron Rodgers could be the missing piece for Saleh’s New York Jets odds this season. If anything happens to Rodgers, it might be a rocky 2023 for Saleh because backup Zach Wilson has shown that he is a very immature 23-year-old. Given that MetLife Field is not too sympathetic to football players’ joints, the Jets’ season could be derailed very quickly if anything happens to Rodgers.
The Really Odd Odds
The really bemusing odds are Andy Reid’s. The current Super Bowl champion and leader of the NFL’s dominant dynasty is at a shocking +4000. Other coaches with those odds are Todd Bowles and Mike McCarthy. Todd Bowles hasn’t got the superstars on his roster that Reid does, but the NFC South is a strange division so it’s difficult to count the Tampa Bay Buccaneers out of the playoff race. Mike McCarthy does have one of the better rosters in the NFL today, but he’s in a very tricky division.
Presumably the strength of Reid’s roster and the fact that Kansas City only lost four games in 2022 goes against him in the Coach of the Year race. However, given how many young players were involved for them last season and the age profile of those who have left, it is not beyond the realms of possibility they improve on last year’s stellar season. If that is so, Reid’s likelihood of winning 2023 NFL Coach of the Year could increase vastly.
Reid also lost Eric Bienemy as his offensive coordinator this off-season. However, Bienemy been replaced by Matt Nagy, who was offensive coordinator when Patrick Mahomes made his debut in 2017. Technically, Mahomes only started one game in 2017, but he won it, so it does not seem a disruptive change.
An Interesting Outsider for 2023 NFL Coach of the Year
In the last three years, Sean McVay is probably the only coach who could challenge Reid for the title of ‘best coach in the league’. His odds are currently +3000. The Los Angeles Rams‘ chances of making the playoffs in a volatile NFC West seem pretty good so McVay’s odds seem generous.
Main Photo: Kirthmon F. Dozier – USA TODAY NETWORK
