NFL history is littered with examples of bad trades. After he spent the 1991 season on the bench in Atlanta the Falcons decided to trade Brett Favre to Green Bay. The rest, as they say, is history. Following that debacle, the Falcons decided in 2001 to trade their first pick to San Diego. The Falcons drafted Michael Vick, who would wind up in jail six years later. San Diego used their first pick (they also received two later picks and Tim Dwight to select LaDainian Tomlinson. In his nine seasons in San Diego Tomlinson had 16,445 total yards and 144 touchdowns!
The Quarterback Carousel Is Broken
As we wait for the Jets and Aaron Rodgers to finalize one of the most protracted trades ever. Lamar Jackson may or may not be traded before the 2023 season kicks off and other quarterbacks could be on the move. Sam Darnold’s arrival in San Francisco could mean Trey Lance is on the trade block. There are currently rumors swirling around New England about Mac Jones’ future too. So, in one of the most tumultuous off-seasons in recent times one question should be asked, does trading for a star quarterback bring success?
Well, the simple answer is only once in the Super Bowl era. Peyton Manning is the only two starting quarterbacks to win Super Bowls after being traded to a different franchise. Two others, Kurt Warner and Craig Morton have started Super Bowls for two different teams. Warner for the Rams and Cardinals and Morton for the Cowboys and Broncos. Jim McMahon won two Super Bowl rings with two different teams but his second came when he was Brett Favre’s backup in Green Bay.
A Change Is As Good As A Rest
Only three starting quarterbacks have won a ring after being traded. Joe Theismann won one after he was traded to Washington. Theismann was originally drafted by the Dolphins in January 1971 (and by the Minnesota Twins in June of the same year). Contract negotiations with the Dolphins didn’t result in Theismann signing with the team though, he instead played in the CFL. In 1974 the Dolphins traded Theismann’s rights to Washington for their first-round pick in the 1976 draft. Theismann went on to win his Super Bowl ring in 1982 before being forced to retire in 1985. During his 10-year career as a starting quarterback in the NFL, he threw for 25,206 yards and 160 touchdowns. The Dolphins missed out on a great one.
Young Hearts Run Free
Steve Young was drafted by the Los Angeles Express in the USFL (so you know this is going to be a good story) in 1984. He signed a 10-year contract worth $42 million. The contract he signed was due to last 43 years! But a year after that contract was signed the owner of the Express J. William Oldenburg, who had given himself the nickname “Mr. Dynamite”, was accused of fraudulently borrowing $17.5 million. Unsurprisingly Young only received about $4.2 million from the USFL team.
Young signed with the Buccaneers in 1985 after they had acquired his rights in a supplemental draft of USFL and CFL players. However, after they decided Young was a bust the Buccaneers drafted Vinny Testaverde with the first overall pick of the 1987 draft. After spending four seasons as Joe Montana’s backup (winning two rings in the process) Young started 11 games in 1991 because Montana suffered an elbow injury in the 1990 NFC Championship game. He went on to miss five games with a knee injury but returned to start the final game of the season when they beat the Bears 52-14. Young went on to win the Super Bowl as a starter in 1994 when he threw six touchdowns against the Chargers.
A Lion In Sheep’s Clothing
The final starting quarterback to win the Super Bowl after being traded happened just last year. After 12 years in Detroit, Matthew Stafford arrived in Los Angeles. Stafford’s story is nowhere near as eventful as Young’s but the Rams’ path to their highly coveted Championship is. Stafford wasn’t the only high-profile acquisition the Rams made to ensure they won a home Super Bowl. In 2020 they traded their 2021 first and fourth-round draft picks to Jacksonville for Jalen Ramsey. On the 1st of November, they traded two picks in the 2022 draft to Denver for Von Miller, and on the 11th they signed Odell Beckham Jr.
How vital Stafford was in winning that Championship with that supporting cast is open to debate. The Rams only lost a single game when Miller played over 50% of their defensive snaps. Jared Goff threw 10 fewer interceptions in Detroit than Stafford did in 2021 and both ended the regular season with a 67.2% completion rate.
Just A Second
Those starters who have won a ring after being traded are very much the exception that proves the rule though. The rule is that trading for an experienced quarterback doesn’t guarantee your franchise will win a Championship. The Big Lead cataloged 31 quarterback trades that garnered at least one first-round pick between 1970 and 2016. That list begins with the trade of Marty Domres from the Chargers to the Colts and includes the Theissman trade.
Domres replaced Hall of Famer Johnny Unitas but ended up winning just eight games in his four seasons as a Colt! Fran Tarkenton was the most successful in this category. He was traded back to the Vikings from the Giants in 1972, there were only 26 teams in those days, but trading for a quarterback you decided you didn’t need five years earlier is odd. After his return to Minnesota, he won 74 games in seven seasons and took them to three Super Bowls.
Not Quite The Same
Other quarterbacks, like Favre, have won rings after being traded notably, Eli Manning and John Elway. Favre though never started a game in Atlanta and only threw four passes as a Falcon. Both Manning and Elway were traded after refusing to play for the team that drafted them, in Manning’s case it was the Chargers. Their history is awkward, to say the least where quarterbacks are involved. Brad Johnson is another special case, he did win a Super Bowl with a different team than the one who drafted him, but he took a circuitous route to get there.
Johnson was traded from Minnesota to Washington and eventually went on to win a Super Bowl in Tampa Bay. He wasn’t traded to the Buccaneers though, he signed as a free agent after Washington didn’t offer him a contract extension. Johnson was practically a journeyman by the time he arrived in Tampa Bay. Johnson started in Minnesota and Washington (and also in the World League for the London Monarchs) before Washington traded him to the Buccaneers.
Will They Ever Learn?
In an analytics-driven world, teams are realizing just how little value there is in trading for a starting quarterback. That at least explains why the Lamar Jackson situation has become so convoluted. Since the 2016 list was compiled only two starting quarterbacks have been traded. Both occurred last season, with DeShaun Watson moving to Cleveland and Russell Wilson’s departure from Seattle to Denver. Both teams who received the draft picks seem to be in a better position now. Obviously, it’s too soon to assess if Watson and Wilson are successes, but history would suggest they (or Jackson and Rodgers) are unlikely to become Champions.
Main Photo: Dan Powers – USA TODAY Sports
