Tompa Bay is no more. There’s a new crew in Carolina. The Saints have a new quarterback but the same old Taysom Hill problem. The Falcons have a new defensive coordinator and big hopes. Who will make the most of the opportunity to fill the TB12-shaped hole atop the NFC South though?
Way Too Early NFC South Preview
Your 2023 NFC South Champions: The Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Desmond Ridder (or maybe Lamar Jackson if you believe the rumor mill). They certainly have the makings of a dynamic offense. With Arthur Smith at the helm, their total should exceed the sum of the parts. Atlanta should be the favorite to win the NFC South in 2023.
In 2022 the Falcons run game was one of the strongest in the league. Their 4.9 yards per attempt was fourth in the NFL. Only the Bears and Ravens (who have two of the most gifted running quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen) averaged more yards per game. They averaged 159.9 run yards per game! They ended the 2022 season with the 10th most rushing touchdowns. As a whole, their offense only converted 55.6% of their red zone visits to touchdowns, the 15th-best rate in the league. They need to improve how clinical they are next season.
Their touchdown pass rate of 4.1% was the 17th best in the league last season but only two teams threw fewer interceptions. They finished 12th in the league for the number of sacks they allowed with 37. There’s definitely a solid base to work from when it comes to improving their touchdown percentage.
Defensively Atlanta was poor last season, but they’ve got a new defensive coordinator this time around. Ryan Nielsen arrives from New Orleans where he had been the defensive line coach. The Falcons major failing on defense last season was the number of penalties they conceded. They conceded 100, the same number as the Bengals and Packers and the 7th highest number in the league.
The “Give It a Season To Bed In” Team The Carolina Panthers
Ok, so they haven’t got a quarterback or a Christian McCaffrey. But here’s what they have got, a Frank Reich, a Duce Staley, a Josh McCown, Ejiro Evero, and Dom Capers all on their coaching staff. Oh, and the 9th pick in the draft. Along with David Tepper’s incredibly deep pockets (which are somewhat irrelevant in a salary-capped league. Why do you think Steve Cohen bought a baseball team?). All those components should see them battling for the NFC South title.
Technically Frank Reich getting the job was a bit odd. Steve Wilks drastically improved a poor team. Under his leadership, they went 6-6. That was very impressive considering Carolina traded away two of their best players and cut Baker Mayfield during the season. Wilks has taken over from DeMeco Ryans in San Francisco now so it all sort of worked out fine.
By the end of last season, the Panthers’ rushing attack was quite good. They ranked 10th for rushing yards and 11th for rushing touchdowns. The passing offense was an area of weakness though which is probably why they have a former quarterback as their head coach now. It’s definitely why they’re aggressively looking for a new quarterback.
The defense wasn’t very good in 2022 but the run defense was ranked 12th in terms of yards allowed per carry. They conceded the 19th most points last season but were ranked 21st for rushing touchdowns allowed and 19th in terms of the number of touchdown passes they conceded. Ejiro Evero has certainly got a job on his hands, but his Broncos only allowed 32 touchdowns in what was a disastrous season in Colorado. Last season the Panthers conceded 42 total touchdowns so Evero should easily be able to improve that.
The “Maybe Next Year” Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The only thing keeping the Buccaneers off the bottom of the NFC South is the Saints decision to keep Dennis Allen as head coach and reunite him with Derek Carr. Whoever ends up playing quarterback in Tampa will have a supporting cast around him. They’ve got a few decisions to make on defense, but the offense is another running back away from being a powerhouse in the division.
Even in a poor season by their recent standards, they were still ranked 2nd for passing yards, 9th for touchdown passes, and 15th for total yards in 2022. The running game was not good at all though (that’s why they threw the ball so much) they were ranked 32nd for rushing yards and touchdowns. Someone to share the load with Rachaad White and a healthy Ryan Jensen will improve that though.
16 of the Buccaneers 2022 defense will hit free agency so they will need to freshen that unit up a bit with some rookies. The Buccaneers’ defense was odd last year, they were ranked 9th for the number of passing yards they allowed but 28th after allowing 29 passing touchdowns. Their run defense was more consistent, but not especially great. They were ranked 15th in the league for the number of yards they allowed and 10th for the number of touchdowns they conceded.
NFC South Cellar Dwellers New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr and Dennis Allen were together back in 2014 in Oakland when the Raiders went 3-13, so there’s that. Unsurprisingly Allen was fired after that season, so that doesn’t bode well for his future employment chances. Apart from that frankly, disturbing prospect the Saints have to deal with an Alvin Kamara legal issue. Two other running backs will hit free agency along with four wide receivers, so the offense appears to be in a transitional phase.
The Saints defense in 2022 was quite good until they faced third downs. They were ranked 24th at stopping 3rd down conversions in the league. 13 of their defensive players are hitting free agency too and they need to save $28.3 million to become cap compliant. They do have seven draft picks but unless they rework a lot of contracts, they need to replace some stars with cheaper options. 2023 looks like a reset and rebuild season in New Orleans they will be left behind by the rest of the NFC South.
Main Photo: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports
