The 2023 NFL Draft is just 69 days away. 27 of the 32 NFL teams have a first round pick, including the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have the 24th pick in the draft overall. The two big questions are: what should Jaguars fans expect them to do with that pick, and what do I think they will do with that pick?
2023 NFL Draft: What the Jaguars Should and Will Do in the First Round, Part 1
The biggest need the Jaguars have is to bolster their defense. They were ranked 28th against the pass, 23rd in sacks and 17th against the run. Additionally, their secondary, including free agents who were signed to shore up the secondary and complement Shaquill Griffin (mainly Tre Herndon and Darious Williams), underperformed last year. Unfortunately, Griffin wound up getting injured, and was limited to five games last season. Losing your star cornerback and having subpar performances from your reserves, is a recipe for disaster and that is one of the more fitting ways to describe Jacksonville’s secondary last season. The defense (or lack thereof), does not fall squarely on the secondary alone. The first and second levels (mainly the first level), were nearly as bad as the secondary. Playing a 3-4 defense, it is anticipated that the first line of defense (that is, the defensive lineman), are there to take on the opposing team’s offensive lineman, so that blitz packages and schemes can be developed for the linebackers to go up field and make tackles for loss and/or sacks. However, Jacksonville ranked 23rd in that department.
When taking into consideration all the needs that the Jaguars have, if they are to contend for a Super Bowl in the near future, there are some positions that need to be addressed, in my opinion, more than others. My method for looking at potential players the Jaguars could/should draft was based upon need as a unit. In Jacksonville’s case, the defense is in worse shape than the offense (which is actually not in bad shape it all). Next I looked at what parts of the defense need help, which is obviously the secondary and the D-line. From there I looked at individual performances from the 2022 depth chart, and evaluated based upon individual statistics. As it stands right now, there are 72 days until the draft. Jacksonville currently has the 24th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and nine total picks overall. Things can change including trading draft picks, players, free agent signings, et cetera. So keeping in mind the parameters as they are now: here are my predictions of what the Jaguars should, could, and likely, will do.
Need 1: Edge
After evaluating the biggest need, it is clear that Jacksonville would benefit from drafting an edge rusher. Both edge rushers from last year, Foye Fatukasi and Roy Robertson-Harris, did not look like starting NFL edge rushers, and Jacksonville would be wise to address this position, above all others, with the 24th overall pick in the draft, for a couple of reasons.
First and foremost, neither of their first-string edge rushers is getting the job done. Secondly, no other team with the 23 prior picks to the Jaguars have a significant need for an edge rusher, meaning that Jacksonville would have the opportunity to pick at least a top three edge rusher from the 2023 draft class. With that said, here is who Jacksonville could take.
1) Will Anderson – Alabama
At 6’4, 243 pounds, Will Anderson is projected as not only the top edge rusher in the entire 2023 NFL Draft, he is also, by some organizations’ accounts, the top overall player at ANY position, in this year’s draft. While no team appears to have as high of a need as the Jaguars do, at the edge position, teams will draft the best athlete in some cases, even if it is a player at a position that they do not need. For this reason, I do not see Anderson being available at pick number 24 come April. However, on the off chance he is still available, this is the pick the Jaguars should make.
2) Myles Murphy – Clemson
Bigger in size, compared to Anderson, at 6’5, 275 pounds, Myles Murphy, is a more feasible option for the Jaguars. While more feasible, it is also not a given that he will be available at pick 24. As mentioned before, Jacksonville does have the highest need of any team for an edge rusher. And while the chances are better that Murphy falls to 24th in the draft, those pesky teams whose philosophy is to draft “the best athlete” overall and not pay attention to need may go after Murphy, who is the fifth best prospect overall, of any position. The chances of getting Murphy instead of Anderson are better, but I still do not think Murphy lasts until the 24th pick, either.
3) Tyree Wilson – Texas Tech
As the old saying goes, “you cannot teach size,” and Tyree Wilson is no exception to the rule. At 6’6, 275 pounds, Wilson is a behemoth of an edge! Unlike Anderson and Murphy, Wilson is ranked as the 21st best prospect, regardless of position in the draft. This is the pick I feel Jacksonville will be able to and should make with the 24th pick in the draft. This is not only because it is likely he will still be available when the Jaguars are on the clock, but also because of his size. Imagine seeing a 6’6, 275 pound edge,running at you as a quarterback. Not only is it intimidating, but your ability to throw the ball becomes hampered, especially if he gets his hands up and jumps to knock down passes on a consistent basis.
Need 2: Cornerback
I am giving Montaric Brown the benefit of the doubt. Last year was his rookie season, and hopefully, his first season, was a learning process and that we will see him have a break out, sophomore season. Additionally, there has been chatter that the Jaguars may part ways with Shaquill Griffin, in a money-saving move. With these two considerations in mind, should the Jaguars decide not to draft an edge Tyson Campbell performed well enough to keep his starting position on the depth chart, there needs to be improvement at the other corner position in the Jaguars 3-4 defensive scheme, especially taking into consideration what the future may hold for Brown and Griffin.
Should the Jaguars decide to draft a cornerback they should be aware that five other teams have cornerback as one of their top two needs. Philadelphia and Minnesota have cornerback as their top need. Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, and Pittsburgh all have cornerback as their second-highest need. Additionally, Detroit holds two first round picks prior to the Jaguars pick at 24 (picks 6, 18).
1) Joey Porter Jr. – Penn State
While not built like his former NFL linebacker father, Joey Porter Jr., has the size to be a dominant NFL cornerback. At 6’2, 192 pounds, he has slightly above average height, and while some would argue underweight, he has the potential to increase his muscle mass, as his father was arguably one of the better conditioned players of his day, and if he listens to his old man, there is no doubt that he too could add muscle mass, while still maintaining optimal speed.
Overall, Porter Jr is the top ranked cornerback in the 2023 NFL Draft class. As far as overall prospect, regardless of position, Porter Jr ranks eighth. Assuming the Jaguars decide to draft a cornerback with their first round pick, it likely will not be Porter Jr especially with both Philadelphia and Minnesota choosing before them (that is, as it stands right now, assuming neither Minnesota or Philadelphia trade out of their current first round draft positions). On the extremely unlikely chance Porter Jr is available, and the Jaguars decide to draft a cornerback over an edge rusher, he should be their pick, but I would not count on it.
2) Cam Smith – South Carolina
While Smith does not have NFL lineage in his family tree, like Porter Jr., he is also extremely talented, matching Porter in height at 6’2, but weighs slightly less than Porter, at 187 pounds. Again, given an unlikely hypothetical scenario, where Porter Jr is off the board and one of the two teams that has cornerback as their highest need, decides not to draft a cornerback, then Smith is up on the stage, holding a teal jersey with a number one on the back, along with his last name. However, chances are likely he will not make it to the 24th pick either.
3) Kelee Ringo – Georgia
The upside for Kelee Ringo, over Smith and Porter is that he is a little more solid at 205 pounds, and like Smith and Porter, he is also 6’2. When I was discussing edge rushers, I had said the third overall edge prospect would be the likely choice for the Jaguars, should they want to draft an edge rusher with their first round pick. Well, Ringo being the third best cornerback will likely not make him the the Jaguars pick, in the first round, if they decide to draft a cornerback, because of the four teams picking prior to the Jaguars, who have cornerback as a top two need.
Assuming Philadelphia chooses Porter Jr with their top pick, and Detroit fills their top need with the sixth pick, they would then be likely to choose Smith with the 18th pick, leaving Minnesota to choose Ringo, with the 23rd pick, one ahead of Jacksonville. Again (not to be redundant), a scenario could play out where Ringo is available, and if that were to happen, then that should be the pick that Jacksonville makes; but I do not think this will happen.
4) Devon Witherspoon – Illinois
So far the shortest of the top four cornerback prospects at 6’0 and weighing 180 pounds, Devon Witherspoon could fall to the Jaguars at 24, but it is more likely that he too is picked before getting to the 24th pick in the draft. If he is available, and is the best prospect left at cornerback on the board, than Jacksonville should make him their choice, even though some critics may say he is undersized, especially when compared to the top three cornerback prospects before him. While height is not everything, it is a factor. However, he is not so drastically undersized that it would take away from his play making ability.
5) Brian Branch – Alabama
Going back to the height issue, I know there is not a correlation with jumping ability and height to the extent that it could compromise professional athletic performance (for you young ones out there, look up Brent Grimes). However, watching receivers getting taller and taller (Mike Evans, 6’5), I have never liked seeing a corner under 6’0 trying to cover a wide receiver who is over 6’0. With that said if Brian Branch, at 5’11 and 190 pounds, is available, and it is likely he will be, and the Jaguars do not have hang-ups about his height, then he should be their pick. However…
6) Christian Gonzalez – Oregon
If the Jaguars thought my opinion mattered, and the first four cornerback prospects were off the board, and Branch and Christian Gonzalez were left, then I would advise the Jaguars to pick Gonzalez over Branch, based on my totally non-scientific, but still strongly held belief, that a less than 6’0 cornerback, defending a greater than 6’0 foot wide receiver, is not going to end well for the cornerback. To me, this is the most likely and definitive pick that the Jaguars should make, if they decide to draft a cornerback, and if the top four cornerback prospects are already off the board.
Look for part 2 of my article on what the Jaguars should and will do in the 2023 NFL Draft, where I will discuss the third, fourth, and a bonus need that the Jaguars could fill with their first-round pick.
Main Photo: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
