The Fantasy Football playoffs are just two weeks away, and having the right team going into the playoffs is vitally important. Just two teams are on bye this week but more injuries are piling up in every position so that doesn’t help. It does make the waiver wire more important each week. We will do our best to help you get the right team lined up for fantasy football starts and sits Week 13.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 13
Quarterback Starts: Jimmy Garoppolo and Kenny Pickett
Since Christian McCaffery was traded to the San Francisco 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo has been on a hot streak. Nine touchdowns and two turnovers in his last five games. Averaging over eight yards per attempt and over 220 yards per game during a four-game winning streak. This week the 49ers will play the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have a middle-of-the-pack defense but they are top 10 against the run and bottom 10 against the pass. With this projected to be a high-scoring game, Garoppolo and the 49ers pass catchers will have good opportunities in the passing game.
Kenny Pickett is only averaging 13 fantasy points a game and is QB27 on the season. He isn’t considered a must-start quarterback option at this point in his career, but he has some decent potential this week. Pickett is averaging over 35 pass attempts per game in his last five starts. Pickett is also averaging over 30 yards per game as a rusher during that stretch. The Steelers have a great matchup this week against the Atlanta Falcons, the Falcons are bottom five in pass attempts, yards, and touchdown passes allowed this season.
Quarterback Sits: Tua Tagovailoa and Tom Brady
Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passer rating and sacks taken this season. He is also top three in passing touchdowns despite missing two games this year. The Miami Dolphins average over 25 points per game this season, he, alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, has one of the more explosive passing games in the league this year.
2022 Passing AY/A Leaders
T. Tagovailoa (9.18)
P. Mahomes (8.03)
J. Garoppolo (7.57)
J. Hurts (7.51)
Full leaderboard: https://t.co/KgQS4ytRjH— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) November 29, 2022
That offense will play the number one defense in the NFL this week in the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are number one in passing touchdowns and rushing yards allowed and also top 10 in various defensive categories including yards per attempt and passer rating. Since Week 8, the 49ers haven’t allowed a point in the second half of any game.
The 49ers defense in the 2nd half since Week 8:
😳 0 points allowed
😳 58.9 passer rating allowed (lowest)
😳 4.45 passing yards/attempt (lowest) pic.twitter.com/zoU6lJlnTi— PFF (@PFF) November 28, 2022
In the past, Tagovailoa has struggled with pressure and he will get that this week, left tackle Terron Armstead suffered a pectoral injury in week 12 and that is bad news with Nick Bosa on schedule this week.
Tom Brady as a Buccaneer has had a bad history against the New Orleans Saints, even with the Saints defense having a down year, it is hard to imagine Brady coming through against them this week.
"This is his kryptonite."@PriscoCBS speaks on who the Saints are to Tom Brady 👀 pic.twitter.com/4549mgEdW4
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) November 29, 2022
Tom Brady is number one in the NFL in pass attempts yet he is only seventh in touchdown passes. His 3.0% touchdown percentage ranks 30th ahead of only Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. The Buccaneers are 26th in the league in scoring, Brady is simply not throwing touchdowns this year. This is Brady’s lowest YPA season in 20 years. Brady has had all of his wide receivers healthy over in the last four weeks and has thrown just six touchdowns on 174 pass attempts. In Week 2 against the Saints, Brady threw for a season-low 190 passing yards.
Running Back Starts: Dameon Pierce and David Montgomery
Dameon Pierce has been miserable as of late. In his past two games, he has just 33 yards on his last 25 touches. That is historically bad, that’s someone you do not want to play in fantasy. The reason why you should start him this week is that he has a matchup against a Cleveland Browns defense that is also historically bad.
The Browns have a league-worst -32.2 EPA on running back carries.
The next closest team (Chargers) is at -17.7 EPA allowed on those carries.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 21, 2022
The Browns are bottom 10 in rushing yards per game, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns despite being middle of the pack in running back carries allowed. The Texans have been miserable as of late but if they can keep this game close, then Pierce will have the chance to explode this week for fantasy. Prior to this rough stretch, Pierce averaged 90 yards on 19 touches per game.
David Montgomery’s best game of the season came in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers: 136 yards on 17 touches. That was in a game where the Chicago Bears lost by 17 points. Both teams are pretty even at this point in time with the Packers completely looking like a shell of themselves. Aaron Rodgers suffered a rib injury in Week 12 and his status for this week is in question. Even if he plays, the Packers have struggled to score this season. The book on David Montgomery has always been that he needs it to be a close and competitive game for him to be effective in fantasy. This is projected to be a low-scoring, close game between two bad teams, the perfect setup for Montgomery against a Packers defense that has been awful against the run.
The Packers have allowed 256 rushing yards and 8.8 yards per carry halfway through the third quarter.
That's an indictment on everyone — the GM, the coaches, the players. Green Bay's run defense is bad year after year. It's been a huge organizational problem.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 28, 2022
In Week 12, the Packers gave up over 350 rushing yards to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Running Back Sits: Miles Sanders and Saquon Barkley
Miles Sanders had his best game of the season in Week 12 with 160 yards and two touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers. This is Sanders’ first 100-yard game since Week 4. With that said, Sanders from Week 12 to Week 13, Sanders matchups are a night and day difference. The Packers rank 31st in run defense while the Tennessee Titans rank third. Sanders’ matchup is against the Tennessee Titans who have been elite against the run this year. They’re top three in yards, yards per carry, carries allowed, and touchdowns allowed. Most people can’t afford to sit Sanders but temper your expectations this week.
Saquon Barkley is RB6 on the season averaging 18 PPR points per game. He got off to a hot start but is starting to slow down as the season goes on.
2- Saquon Barkley
In his last 2 games (DET/DAL), he's rushed 26 times for 61 yards.
And he's caught 6 of 11 targets for 26 yards.
He also has 1 TD.
— Jim Coventry (@JimCoventryNFL) November 30, 2022
In weeks 1-7, Barkley was RB2 averaging over 20 PPR points per game. From weeks 8-12 Barkley is RB18 averaging 15 PPR points per game. In Weeks 1-7, Barkley averaged 129 yards per game, in the last five weeks that has dropped down to 77 yards per game. Barkley’s production has fallen off a cliff. Obviously, you can’t really sit him but lower expectations in a matchup against a Washington Commanders defense that is top 10 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed.
Wide Receiver Starts: Chris Godwin and Brandon Aiyuk
Although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has struggled this season, Chris Godwin has started to get healthy and is back to his normal self.
Chris Godwin had 3/35 in the first half of WK1 before tweaking his hammy & missing the second half – in his first game back from an ACL tear.
Since then?
6+ receptions & double-digit fantasy points in 8-consecutive games, including 12/110/1 this week.
BUY.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 29, 2022
Since Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Godwin is averaging over 10 targets per game and has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games. The Buccaneers lead the NFL in passing attempts with over 42 pass attempts per game. Although the Buccaneers offense hasn’t been efficient, the targets Godwin is getting gives him weekly potential to blow up. Godwin’s teammate, Mike Evans, has struggled recently, with just 125 yards in his last three games. Godwin is taking over as the number one option for the Buccaneers.
Since Week 6, Brandon Aiyuk is WR8 averaging over 17 PPR points per game. In that stretch, Aiyuk has at least 60 yards or a touchdown in every game including 80+ yards in a four-week stretch. Aiyuk’s matchup is with the Miami Dolphins who are the bottom ten in pass attempts allowed. Aiyuk is starting to take over as the San Francisco 49ers number-one receiver. Deebo Samuel has two more targets than Aiyuk but with seven fewer catches, 141 fewer yards, and four fewer touchdowns.
Wide Receiver Sits: Michael Pittman Jr.
In Week 12, Michael Pittman Jr. scored his first touchdown since Week 1. Pittman has a consistent target production with over nine per game, but due to quarterback issues, his fantasy numbers have been hit or miss. Over half of his games finished with under 60 yards and in two different games, he was held under four receptions. The matchup this week isn’t great for Pittman against a Dallas Cowboys defense that is elite against number-one wide receivers. Pittman will probably be shadowed against Cowboys All-Pro cornerback, Trevon Diggs.
Trevon Diggs has the 5th highest coverage grade in single coverage this year among CBs (min. 20% snaps), per PFF. #Cowboys
— John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 23, 2022
The Cowboys are top five in the NFL in yards and targets allowed to the number one receiver this season. Diggs has done well in shadow coverage this season and Pittman is the type of receiver that Diggs does well against. Also the O-line vs D-line matchup this week is bad for the Colts, the Cowboys defense is number one in the NFL in sack rate and Colt’s offensive line is 31st in the NFL in sack rate.
Tight End Starts: Logan Thomas
Logan Thomas is fifth on the Washington Commanders in targets, Thomas has played in nine games this season. The Commanders have won four of five games this season. His stats haven’t been that impressive so far this season but outside of Travis Kelce, most tight ends are hit or miss in fantasy. Over the past three weeks, Thomas has had a 71% snap count percentage. His three redzone targets in the last three games give him touchdown upside. Thomas’ matchup this week the New York Giants, gave up three redzone touchdowns to tight ends in Week 12.
Tight End Sits: Noah Fant
Noah Fant is third on the Seattle Seahawks in targets, and he hasn’t had a huge role in the passing game this season. Just 41 targets in 11 games this year. The Seahawks split their tight end snaps between Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson. Each play at least 33% of the snaps including Dissly and Fant over 60%. Fant and Dissly both have over 30 targets on the season. Both have five rare zone targets each on the season which puts a limit on what Fant can do every week. The Rams are top five in yards and targets allowed to tight ends this season.
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