It feels hard to believe but we are already at the halfway point of the Fantasy Football season! This year has been a roller-coaster season with the injuries and the breakouts and busts. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are the only teams on a bye this week. That should make setting a lineup more manageable but injuries to Breece Hall, D.K. Metcalf, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and others mean this will be another week of busy waiver wire moves.
Week 8 Fantasy Football Starts and Sits
Quarterback Starts: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa
Since Week 3 Joe Burrow is QB1 averaging over 25 points per game. Burrow has started to adjust to teams playing Cover 2 against the Bengals. In four of the last five games, Burrow has thrown for at least 275 yards and had at least two touchdowns. This week Burrow will see a Cleveland Browns defense that has struggled immensely. The Browns are 27th in yards allowed to number one and number two receivers, which fits right in with the Bengals offense.
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Tua Tagovailoa returned this past week from the concussion he sustained in Week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Dolphins have big advantages in the passing game with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They also have an advantage up front, Tua has only been sacked six times in five games and the Lions are bottom ten in DVOA adjusted sack rate.
Quarterback Sits: Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford
This is probably the worst stretch of Aaron Rodgers’ career and that might continue this week. The Packers travel to Buffalo this week to play a Bills defense that is top five in adjusted sack rate and top five in adjusted running back yards allowed. The Packers have struggled to sustain drives and struggled to create big plays. The Bills do not give up big plays, they are also coming off a bye. The Bills are second in the league in points per game and are expected to play with a lead this week. That may lead Rodgers to throw more which will create more opportunities for turnovers.
Matthew Stafford is coming off a bye week that was much needed, the Rams won before their bye but they have struggled to score points for the entire season. Stafford was one of my sits in week 4 against the San Francisco 49ers in a brutal matchup where he had two turnovers and no touchdowns. Who does Stafford play this week? The San Francisco 49ers! Stafford is 0-3 against the 49ers in the regular season since joining the Rams and he has four touchdowns and six turnovers. Until he proves otherwise he is a sit every time he plays against the 49ers.
Running Back Starts: Kenneth Walker and Ezekiel Elliott
Kenneth Walker is looking like a rookie of the year front runner and has taken off since Rashard Penny got injured in Week 4. He is the RB5 since Week 5, and over the last two weeks, he is averaging 23 touches and almost 140 yards per game. He has yet to have an impact as a receiver but with the carries he is getting the lack of targets hasn’t affected him yet. D.K. Metcalf sustained an injury in Week 7, his status for this week is up in the air. If he misses time that could lead to Walker being more involved in the passing game. Walker has a good matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed five touchdowns and at least 60 yards to nine different running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott had his best game of the season last week against the Detroit Lions. He was a start last week and he is a start again this week against an NFC North opponent. The Chicago Bears have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs so far this season. Zeke also has a great history against the Bears, in two games against the Bears, he averages 126 yards and a touchdown per game.
Ezekiel Elliott
Bears vs Cowboys 2016
Week 3#DallasCowboys✭ #CowboysNation #CowboysFam
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CBS 🎥 pic.twitter.com/cwkiElqzhY— Sohe (@SoheCoop) June 5, 2022
Running Back Sits: Najee Harris and Brian Robinson
Najee Harris has been a fantasy disappointment so far this season. Harris has failed to surpass 15 PPR points in a game this year. His targets have gone way down this year from last year. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett has started three games and Harris is averaging under four targets so far with Pickett as the starter. It doesn’t help that Harris has a matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that is only allowing 28 receiving yards per game to running backs. The Eagles are favored by double digits so the game script may take away his touches early in this game.
Since returning to the lineup, Brian Robinson is averaging over 15 carries per game and he immediately took over as RB1 for the Commanders. Since returning, he has out-snapped Antonio Gibson by six snaps per game, although Robinson is getting the touches he has been very inefficient so far this year. 168 yards on 48 touches, that, combined with an offense that struggles to score is bad for fantasy. What’s also bad is the matchup this week against an Indianapolis Colts defense that is top five in yards per carry and second-level yards allowed per carry.
Wide Receiver Starts: Michael Gallup and Tee Higgins
With the teams that are on bye this week, Michael Gallup is a good sleeper to start this week. Gallup only had two targets in Week 2 but that was Dak Prescott’s first game back so we won’t look too much into that. The Cowboys passing game hasn’t gotten going so far this season but a good matchup against the Chicago Bears will give Gallup a chance to get going. Another week back for Prescott he should be more comfortable throwing downfield. Gallup has played the Chicago Bears once and went over 100 yards on 10 targets in that game. If you have wide receivers on bye feel comfortable throwing Gallup in your lineup this week.
Tee Higgins had 93 yards on seven targets last week and he was the Bengals third-best receiver. Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd both went over 100 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7. Higgins has two games this season where he exited in the first quarter due to injury, outside of that he has been a WR1 this year.
Tee Higgins when playing more than 50% of snaps
8.4 targets/game
85.6 yards/game
2 touchdowns
16.8 fantasy PPG
WR10 in PPR— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) October 25, 2022
Higgins should get some touchdown opportunities this week against a Cleveland Browns defense that is bottom 10 in yards allowed to number two wide receivers. Chase should see more attention this week which should allow Higgins to get targets underneath.
Wide Receiver Sits: Darnell Mooney and Michael Pittman Jr.
Darnell Mooney hasn’t been able to find the endzone so far this season. Last week he had 53 yards on six targets, that’s about a regular game for Mooney which isn’t good for fantasy. The Chicago Bears scored a season-high 33 points and Mooney had 53 yards with zero red zone targets. As a matter of fact, no Chicago Bear player had a red zone target. Mooney has just two red zone targets on the season. Mooney has a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys who are top 10 in yards and targets allowed to wide receivers on the season.
Michael Pittman Jr. was my favorite wide receiver target entering the season. Mainly because he was Colt’s only reliable receiver and the fact that Matt Ryan would be an upgrade over Carson Wentz. Well, rookie Alec Pierce has shown to be a reliable target and Matt Ryan does not look the same. Now Ryan has been benched for rookie Sam Ehlinger who will take over the starting job. With Ehlinger being a rookie it is impossible to know the effect this will have on Colt’s passing game. With the bye weeks, it’s probably hard to sit Pittman but with lower expectations, the Colts may be run-heavy with a rookie quarterback. The matchup against the Commanders is a good one but I’d recommend waiting it out and seeing what happens before confidently starting him.
Tight End Starts: Pat Freirmuth and T.J. Hockensen
Pat Freirmuth is third on the Pittsburgh Steelers in targets on the season, in week 7 he had 75 yards on nine targets against the Miami Dolphins. Kenny Pickett is 1-2 as a starter in the two losses he has thrown 96 total passes. In the Steeler’s one win with Pickett, he had 20 pass attempts. The Steelers are expected to lose this week against the Philadelphia Eagles, so Freirmuth can rack up some more targets this week. The Eagles are bottom ten in the NFL in targets allowed to tight ends with eight per game. In games where Freirmuth has at least eight targets, he averages over 12 PPR points per game.
T.J. Hockensen has been hit or miss in fantasy this year. He has a 40-point game and three games under 10 points. Amon-Ra St. Brown left last week’s game with a concussion, it remains to be seen if he will be back for Week 8. If he is out that is a plus for Hockensen. If he plays that still gives him a chance in a high-scoring game against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins allow over seven targets per game to tight ends on the season.
Tight End Sit: Kyle Pitts
The Atlanta Falcons passing game has been nonexistent for the past few weeks. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is averaging 18 pass attempts in his last five starts. In that stretch, Kyle Pitts is averaging four targets per game and hasn’t surpassed 30 yards in over a month. Pitts is TE22 on the season averaging less than 30 yards per game. Pitts’ matchup this Sunday, the Carolina Panthers are top five in targets allowed to tight ends.
