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2022 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for 2022; D.J. Moore, Kyle Pitts, Saquon Barkley, Trey Lance, and many more bold predictions.
Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

“Hot Taek SZN” is almost finished up so let’s have a little fun here. These are going to be a bit spicy as they are fantasy football bold predictions. Last year, I did pretty well considering the fact that these bold predictions don’t happen near as often as we hope they do. That’s how it goes when it comes to bold predictions, and fantasy football in general.

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Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for 2022

Before we get into these fantasy football bold predictions, I want to preface this by saying that all of these predictions are, by no means, the most likely outcome. Most of them should be considered 80th or 90th percentile outcomes or higher. Some are more likely than others, but that will depend on your own opinions of each player. For reference, all of these are based on a full PPR scoring format.

1. Saquon Barkley is a top-five RB.

Despite what some may have you believe, it wasn’t that long ago that Saquon Barkley was considered the top overall pick in fantasy drafts. He was coming off a rookie year in 2018 in which he put up over 2,000 total yards of offense while catching 91 balls and scoring 15 touchdowns. Barkley averaged 24 fantasy points per game that year and that was as a rookie.

This was after he was drafted second overall in the NFL Draft, something that’s unheard of in this era for a running back. It made some sense though considering his college production profile, as well as his athletic profile, were both off the charts. The potential was truly through the roof for this young stud. The next year was still good but a small step back after dealing with an ankle injury. Then disaster struck in 2020 when Barkley tore his ACL, MCL, and meniscus and he’s been injury-plagued since.

Heading into 2022, Barkley still profiles as a three-down workhorse running back for fantasy purposes. That is incredibly valuable in this era where the workhorse running back is becoming rarer and rarer. Barkley is also entering the season another year removed from the major knee injury and the healthiest he’s been in years.

There are still concerns about the offensive environment but the workload will be too juicy If he just stays healthy all year. Barkley likely won’t get near the 91 receptions with Daniel Jones as his quarterback since Jones has an affinity for scrambling sometimes instead of checking the ball down. Even still, Barkley caught 41 passes in 13 games last year, in a down year. In a full, healthy year he should be able to surpass 50 receptions with upside for much more. He’s currently being drafted as the RB12 and 21st overall but a full season from a healthy Barkley will likely turn in a top-five running back season and see him being mentioned as a top-five pick in fantasy drafts in 2023.

2. Christian McCaffrey Returns to His Throne as the RB1 and Outscores the RB2 by 3 PPG.

Don’t draft scared. Don’t let recency bias cloud your judgment. Too many people get caught up in trying to predict who will or won’t get hurt and most of it is all based on these two things. It is a great way to lose your league because while we, as a whole, do a pretty good job at projecting things like role, talent, and volume, we do a terrible job at predicting injuries. That’s because most of them are freak incidents that can (and do) happen to anyone. This is especially true with running backs that handle 20+ touches and take 20+ violent hits every game. Yet, despite all of this, every year people get caught up in doing this. This year it happens to be with Christian McCaffrey, who has been injury plagued the past two years.

In 2019 McCaffrey put up one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a running back. He was the top overall player averaging 29.3 fantasy points per game. For reference, last year’s RB1, Jonathan Taylor, only averaged 21.9 fantasy points per game. That is a truly drastic difference. To put it in perspective, the difference between peak Christian McCaffrey and peak Jonathan Taylor is the same as the difference between peak Jonathan Taylor and Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson had an awesome year but he was the RB16 in fantasy points per game.

When the difference between the possible RB1 and RB2 is the same as the difference between the RB2 and the RB16, that’s when you know that the RB1 is a cheat code. The Carolina Panthers also traded for Baker Mayfield this year, which should be a nice upgrade over Sam Darnold and increase the scoring opportunities for the Panthers. With two seasons of more than 100 receptions under his belt as well as a season with both 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving, McCaffrey is a steal at any pick in the draft. They say you can’t win your league in the first round, however, the advantage a healthy McCaffrey gives you over any other player in the field, tends to disagree with that old adage.

3. D.J. Moore is a top-five WR.

From one Panther to another, all D.J. Moore has done since entering the NFL is produce. After a solid rookie season, he’s now produced over 1,150 receiving yards in three straight seasons. Moore’s 3,525 receiving yards since 2019 rank fifth among all players, trailing only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Travis Kelce. That’s elite company and all of them are first-round (or very close) picks in fantasy football.

Moore never gets mentioned among this group of players but it’s only a matter of time until he does. He’s done all this in spite of some of the worst quarterback play in the league with Sam Darnold. Moore gets knocked for his lack of touchdowns but Darnold only threw nine touchdowns the entire year. It’s going to be tough to score more than a handful of touchdowns in that scenario.

Heading into 2022 it’s all systems go for Moore to completely break out. As previously mentioned, Baker Mayfield is now the quarterback for the Panthers. Mayfield isn’t necessarily a great quarterback but he’s been near league average in most metrics. Darnold, meanwhile, was near the bottom. That alone should allow most, if not all, of Moore’s numbers to go up. Even more encouraging is that his career trajectory has looked very similar to that of Stefon Diggs. Both players showed they can succeed in any role, which is huge. If everything clicks and Moore stays healthy, 100+ catches, 1,500+ yards, and 10+ touchdowns are a possibility. He’s currently the 15th wide receiver off the board and could pay huge dividends.

4. Kyler Murray finishes as THE QB1.

“Wait on quarterback” has always been some of the best advice when it comes to 1QB fantasy football leagues. While that is still a great strategy with how many good quarterbacks there are, it has also become very advantageous to take one of the high-upside mobile quarterbacks as well. There are becoming more and more of them and they present both a floor and ceiling that is hard to match from a pure pocket passer.

With there being more of them to choose from, there are more options and you can wait and still get a great one in the middle rounds. The best value of them all, though, happens to be Kyler Murray. In the last two seasons, he’s finished as the QB3 and QB4 in fantasy points per game. Murray averaged 22.2 and 24.4 fantasy points per game in those seasons.

Heading into 2022, Murray could be in store for his best season yet. Each of the last two seasons he’s had extended stretches where he’s looked like the league MVP. Then he gets a little banged up and stops running as much. Hopefully, the injury bug doesn’t bite this season.

The Arizona Cardinals also went out and traded for his old college teammate, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Christian Kirk is no longer there but Brown should represent an upgrade. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games of the season but that may just result in Murray using his legs a bit more.

The Cardinals are still likely to be one of the fastest-paced and most high-powered offenses in the league and will play in plenty of shootouts. Murray is maybe the only quarterback in the league with the chance to throw for 5,000 yards while also rushing for 800 yards in the same season. With a bit of luck in the health and touchdown departments, Murray can finish as the best quarterback in fantasy football.

5. Kyle Pitts finishes as THE TE1.

What a complete 180 from the Kyle Pitts mention in this article last season. Last year he was drafted as the TE4 despite being a rookie tight end. I said that he wouldn’t finish as a top-ten tight end. While he ended up as the TE11, his ADP is right back up to TE3 heading into 2022.

It makes sense considering the level of prospect he is and the season he had as a rookie. Despite the TE11 finish, last year was actually more encouraging than discouraging. Sure, he was a disappointment compared to his ADP but Pitts still put up over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, a rarity for a tight end. He also drew 110 targets and caught 68 passes. The big downfall was that Pitts only had one touchdown. That was a stone-cold fluke considering his size and athleticism and the number of targets he had.

Heading into 2022, Pitts should only get more involved in his Sophomore season. He now has a full year of experience in this offense and in the NFL and should be much more comfortable. On top of that, not only were the raw numbers great, but the underlying metrics were even better.

Pitts was top-five among all tight ends in targets, routes run, air yards, receiving yards, yards per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception. He did all this as a rookie. Safe to say, Pitts is going to be a superstar and the sky is the limit. He has all the makings of an elite fantasy tight end for the next decade.

This year he is losing Matt Ryan and gaining Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Some might see this as a downgrade, but Ryan wasn’t the same last year and Mariota is far better than people give him credit for. Mariota also fueled Delanie Walker to a career year and a TE3 finish back in 2015. Pitts is a far better tight-end prospect than Walker was. All of Pitts’ numbers should go up this year, especially the touchdowns. That gives him a great chance of finishing as the best tight end in fantasy football in 2022.

6. Trey Lance is a top-five QB.

Every year a quarterback being drafted outside of the top ten breaks out in a big way and becomes a fantasy football monster. That quarterback is almost always a mobile quarterback given the ceiling and floor they present at the position. Last year it was Jalen Hurts. 2020 gave us Josh Allen and 2019 gave us Lamar Jackson. All three of those quarterbacks ran a ton.

This year, there are two quarterbacks that look like they could follow in these footsteps and they are Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Both have the ability and skill set to do so, but Lance looks like not only a much safer option but also has a much higher upside. There are some questions about Lance as a passer because of the lack of competition and the generally small sample size. He barely played last year as a rookie and only played one game in 2020 at North Dakota State. However, in 2019, as a Sophomore, he played 16 games and threw for 28 touchdowns without an interception. Lance also had 2,786 passing yards. That was in addition to 1,100 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. 

Lance only got the chance to start two games in his rookie season last year. In those two games, he had 24 carries and 120 rushing yards. Sure it’s a small sample size, but it shows that Kyle Shanahan was designing the offense around his ability to run the ball. If we play the extrapolation game over a full 17-game season, that would turn into 204 carries for 1,020 rushing yards. That sure looks like a Lamar Jackson stat line.

It shouldn’t be expected for Lance to rush for more than 1,000 yards but it is certainly in the range of outcomes and that’s what is so enticing about his fantasy profile. In the two games, he started, he only had 441 passing yards and two passing touchdowns against one interception. Even still, Lance had 15.6 and 20.1 fantasy points. That’s how important that rushing aspect is. He also had another game of 20.4 fantasy points in which he came into the game after Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt.

This year he should be even better as a passer with another year of growth and learning the system. He also has some of the best YAC weapons in the league in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. There will be plenty of times that Lance throws a quick pass to them at or behind the line of scrimmage and they take it to the house.

Lance also gets all those points and will benefit from being insulated in this offense. There really is almost no way that Lance fails as a fantasy quarterback, assuming he starts the entire season and there is a great path to top-five production with an outside shot that he could be THE top quarterback in fantasy football in 2022.

7. Evan Engram and David Njoku BOTH finish as top-12 TEs.

My favorite strategy when it comes to drafting tight ends is “great or late.” This is where you target one of the elite tight ends like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts in the first three rounds, and if you don’t get one of them, then wait until the late rounds to grab one or two tight ends with upside.

Of course, if any of the others, like Dallas Goedert or Dalton Schultz, fall to a good value, it’s worth taking advantage of. Usually, however, they go earlier than they should as people will get concerned about missing out. The problem there is that usually, you have to pass up a high-upside breakout candidate wide receiver to do so. It’s much better to take the wide receiver and then look towards the upside tight ends later.

There usually is not much of a difference between the two at the end of the year anyways. This year there are two candidates going outside the top-15 tight ends and outside the top-150 overall players that have a great chance of emerging as every-week starting options. Those two players are Evan Engram and David Njoku.

In regards to Evan Engram, he is getting a fresh start this year with the Jacksonville Jaguars after two straight disastrous seasons. The entire New York Giants offense was a disaster those two years. Before that, Engram finished as the TE7, TE4, and TE4 the previous three seasons in terms of fantasy points per game. He’s had or been on pace for, over 100 targets in four of his five seasons as a pro.

Engram has one of the best athletic profiles of any tight end as he is in the 87th percentile or better in all metrics, including a 100th percentile 40-yard dash time. The Jaguars have an ambiguous wide receiver room, a coach that has featured tight ends, and a young, talented quarterback. Another 100+ targets should be in store for Engram as long as he stays healthy.

Njoku also has a great athletic and prospect profile in his own right. He just hasn’t had the opportunity so far in his career. That should change this year with Austin Hooper out of town. During the preseason, Njoku ran a route on 80% of the Cleveland Browns dropbacks. That number is extremely encouraging, especially on a team that has Amari Cooper and basically nothing else for pass-catchers. The Browns don’t profile to be a very pass-heavy offense, especially with Jacoby Brissett, however, Njoku should be a vital piece as long as he stays healthy and keeps up that level of route participation. If both of those things happen, a top-12 season is a great possibility.

8. Travis Etienne is a top-ten RB.

Take a good look at Travis Etienne’s profile and it will have you salivating. He was a first-round pick in 2021. He ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at his pro day and a 4.50 at the combine. Etienne also had an incredible college career at Clemson. He had over 6,000 total yards and 78 touchdowns. Etienne also caught 102 passes and had a 12.2% target share in his final year. He is clearly an explosive playmaker and profiles as a special player, especially in the passing game.

Unfortunately, he suffered a Linsfranc injury last preseason and missed the entire year. That is where the worries end though. There’s certainly a chance he comes back less explosive and a changed player, but that seems like a slim chance given how young he is and the fact that he’s more than a full year removed from the injury at this point. His backfield mate, James Robinson, also suffered a more serious Achilles tear and that occurred in Week 16 last season, meaning that he won’t even be a full year removed until after the fantasy season is over. 

With Robinson still so fresh off the Achilles injury, Etienne should have a sizable workload early in the season. If he is successful, he could take the job and run with it. The nice part for Etienne is that even if he isn’t a workhorse, he can still be great in fantasy because of his expected usage as a pass-catcher.

Most of his player comparisons are usually to D’Andre Swift and Alvin Kamara. Those are some of the best pass-catching running backs in the league and are taken in the second round in most fantasy football drafts. Meanwhile, Etienne is usually a fourth-round pick and taken as the 18th running back off the board on average. Players like Swift, Kamara, and Austin Ekeler have shown to be great fantasy running backs despite seeing only around 200 carries.

Even if Robinson comes back strong to take a big portion of the carries, Etienne should still see 160+ carries and 55+ receptions on the season. Even at a workload like that, he can be a top-ten running back for fantasy purposes. The scary thing is that there is upside for so much more and should that happen, he’ll be an easy top-ten running back in fantasy football in 2022.

9. Courtland Sutton becomes this year’s “Cooper Kupp.”

Let’s get the disclaimer out of the way early: Nobody should expect anyone, let alone Courtland Sutton, to put up a season like Cooper Kupp did last year. The numbers he put up in 2021 were some of the best we’ve ever seen. What we’re looking for here is a wide receiver being drafted in the 4th-6th rounds that can take that big leap up into superstardom. There are plenty of great options in that range but Sutton of the Denver Broncos stands out among the rest.

For starters, like Kupp last year, Sutton is getting a massive upgrade at quarterback after the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson. Now there’s no word as to whether they’re eating breakfast together like Stafford and Kupp, but all reports out of camp have made it clear that Sutton is the guy Wilson leans on more often than not.

Also similar to Kupp, Sutton is another year removed from a major knee injury and should be much healthier than he was the previous year. This should allow him to get back to his pre-injury form. Let’s not forget that Sutton was the WR27 in 2019 when he averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game. He had 126 targets, 72 receptions, 1,112 receiving yards, and six touchdowns that year. He was able to do that in spite of the three-headed monster at quarterback that was Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Brandon Allen.

The AFC West is also loaded this year and primed for a ton of shootouts. All the stars are aligning for Sutton to return to pre-injury form and take another leap on top of that with Wilson at the helm. Don’t be surprised if, at the end of the year, Sutton is considered among the truly elite wide receivers in fantasy football.

10. Darnell Mooney, Rashod Bateman, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Elijah Moore all live up to the “breakout” hype and all finish as top-20 WRs.

Darnell Mooney, Rashod Bateman, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Elijah Moore have been some of the most popular names associated with “breakout” wide receivers this offseason. All four of them also have red flags and people who are extremely down on them.

St. Brown is usually the one that elicits the strongest response, one way or another. He went on a historic tear down the final stretch of the season as a rookie. It also coincided with both T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift missing time. Some believe that he was simply too good to ignore, while others believe he was a product of being the only show in town. Bateman and Moore have great college careers and prospect profiles and both flashed at times as rookies last year. Both of them also play in “less than ideal” passing environments and need to prove they can be an alpha for longer stretches. Mooney has the advantage of being the only third-year receiver of the group and is the main option for the Chicago Bears. He’s also fresh off a season in which he saw 140 targets and caught 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns. His passing environment, though, is also less than ideal.

I’m here to say that all of them succeed. All of them are young, talented wide receivers and all of them can ball out this year. St. Brown inexplicably dropped in the NFL Draft last year and showed why he should’ve gone off the board earlier. Matt Harmon, the creator of the widely renowned Reception Perception, recently likened him to Cooper Kupp. That’s high praise. He should continue to be a featured weapon for a much improved Detroit Lions offense this season, even with Hockenson and Swift healthy.

Mooney should only improve from last season’s numbers. Allen Robinson is now in Los Angeles and Matt Nagy is also out of the picture. Justin Fields should improve in his Sophomore season as well. Mooney could be in line for 150+ targets this year and with some improved efficiency, the sky is the limit.

Rashod Bateman, while in a run-heavy scheme, should also benefit from a veteran leaving town, with Marquise Brown now in Arizona. Bateman is a great wide receiver prospect and should easily be a top-two target getter in this Baltimore Ravens offense. The Ravens aren’t pass-heavy but they are high-scoring and efficient.

Finally, Moore looks like he should emerge as the alpha for the New York Jets. He was the WR4 in fantasy from Week 7 until Week 13 (when he got hurt) last year. The quarterback situation isn’t great but he produced with Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Josh Johnson last year. The Jets should once again be losing and throwing often, to the benefit of Moore. All in all, try to draft as many of these guys as you can in as many of your leagues as you can so you don’t miss out on all the fun.

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