Mike Williams enters his fourth season in the NFL looking for his first back-to-back 1,000-yard season. Williams was second on the Los Angeles Chargers in targets and catches behind pro bowl teammate Keenan Allen. Williams led the Chargers in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in 2021. On March 8th, 2022 Williams signed a three-year 60 million dollar extension with 40 million in guarantees. He will receive 28 million in the first year of the new contract. Williams has a positive fantasy football outlook with emerging quarterback Justin Herbert (Herbert’s 2022 fantasy outlook) on a high-powered Chargers offense.
READ MORE: D.J. Moore Fantasy Profile
2022 Fantasy Football Outlook: Mike Williams
2021 Season Recap
In 2021 Mike Williams had a career year notching 76 catches, 1146 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. He was second on the Chargers in targets and catches behind Keenan Allen. Williams had 129 targets in 2021, which accounts for 32% of the targets over his career. Williams suffered a knee injury in week five against the Cleveland Browns. His season quickly changed after that, between weeks six and eight Williams only totaled six total receptions.
What happened to Mike Williams Week 6-10 last year?
Week 1-5: 22.8 PPR FP/G 10.2 TGT/G
Week 6-10: 5.9 PPR FP/G 5.3 TGT/G
Week 11-18: 15.3 PPR FP/G 8.1 TGT/G— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) July 20, 2022
Through those first five games of the season, Williams was WR2 behind Cooper Kupp. From weeks six through 18 Williams was WR28. He saw a huge drop-off in his production and also his targets. In weeks one through five he averaged over ten targets per game. From weeks six to 18 he averaged seven targets per game. Williams was the Charger’s big play receiver in 2021, he led the team in yards per catch with over 15 per reception. He is considered to be one of the best deep threats in the entire league.
Most efficient deep targets in 2021:
(Yards per route run leaders on targets deeper than 15 yards downfield — min 25 TGT)8.1 — Deebo Samuel, Tyler Lockett
7.6 — Kyle Pitts
6.8 — Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Williams
6.6 — Cooper Kupp
6.5 — Justin Jefferson
6.4 — Donovan Peoples-Jones— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 15, 2022
Mike Williams 2022 Fantasy Outlook
The Chargers had the number two passing offense in the league in 2021 led by Justin Herbert’s first 5,000-yard season. The Chargers enter this season bringing back most of the starting offense, with minor addition in Gerald Everett. In 2021 running back Austin Ekeler led the Chargers with 20 total touchdowns. This was an outlier season for Ekeler he should see some negative touchdown regression in 2022. On the other hand, Williams scored nine touchdowns in 2021 but was one of the worst red zone players in the league last year.
2021 – The WORST Redzone WRs based on Catch % (with at least 15 RZ targets):
1. Van Jefferson / 15 Tgts – 26.7% Rec
2. AJ Green / 17 Tgts – 29.4% Rec
3. Marvin Jones Jr / 18 Tgts – 38.9% Rec
4. Mike Williams / 23 Tgts – 39.1% Rec— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) June 17, 2022
He should see some positive touchdown regression in 2022. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were both top 10 in red zone targets for wide receivers in 2021. This seems to be a Justin Herbert stat and there’s no reason for that to change in 2022.
Average Draft Position
According to fantasy pros, Williams is going as WR19 in the fifth round of 12-team leagues. He is going before receivers like Brandin Cooks and Marquise Brown and after DK Metcalf and D.J. Moore. Due to quarterback situations, Williams is a better fantasy option than Metcalf although the ADPs do not indicate that. The fifth round is about the right round to take a consistent high upside receiver on a pass-happy offense.
2021: WR Weeks of 30+ Pts (PPR)
WR – Weeks (2022 ADP)Cooper Kupp – 6 (WR1)
*Davante Adams – 6 (WR4)
*Tyreek Hill – 3 (WR8)
Deebo Samuel – 3 (WR6)
Justin Jefferson – 2 (WR2)
Ja'Marr Chase – 2 (WR3)
*AJ Brown – 2 (WR11)
Mike Williams – 2 (WR19)
* = New team in 2022
— Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy) July 29, 2022
Williams teammate Keenan Allen is going two rounds earlier in the third round. Although Allen is a more consistent and dependable receiver, Mike Williams offers far more downfield upside which is a huge difference in fantasy football. Allen finished with 28 more targets and 30 more receptions and only ended up with 11 more fantasy points in 2021. Williams should see positive touchdown regression in 2022 and if he does he may find himself as a top five receiver in 2022.
Main Photo: Embed from Getty Images
