Tyreek Hill enters his seventh year in the NFL with a new quarterback for the first time in five years. Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins on March 23rd. He will have an adjustment period going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. In his three fully healthy seasons with Mahomes, Hill averaged out as wide receiver three across those seasons. For the first time in the last five seasons, he enters the fantasy football season with some uncertainty and question marks.
2022 Fantasy Football Outlook: Tyreek Hill
2021 Recap
Tyreek Hill finished as the wide receiver six in 2021. He saw career highs in receptions, targets, and first down but suffered his lowest yards per catch average since his rookie season. This was mainly due to teams playing shell coverage vs the Kansas City Chiefs to take away the explosive plays. Hill showed versatility by being able to adapt to an underneath target. Hill is the ultimate boom or bust player in fantasy. Last season he had four 25-point games and four games under 10 points. This is mainly due to how much attention he gets from other teams. If you’ve had Hill in fantasy this is something you should already be aware of.
2022 Outlook
In search of a large payday that the Chiefs wouldn’t match, Hill was dealt to Miami. He enters this season with third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and second-year wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins also added running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Offensive line signings of Connor Williams and Terron Armstead will help bolster an offensive line that allowed 40 sacks in 2021.
The Dolphins also brought in Mike McDaniel as their new Head Coach, as he was previously the San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator. McDaniels brings to Miami a run-heavy system that creatively utilizes its weapons. The Dolphins were a quick run-pass option passing team in 2021, that will change with McDaniel’s new offense somewhat. McDaniel used Deebo Samuel as a running back at times, Hill has similar traits and could see some more carries this year. Early in his career, Hill saw time aligning in the backfield.
Tua’s development and willingness as a downfield passer will be a huge key for Hill’s fantasy outlook this year. Tua finished at the bottom of the league in yards per attempt in 2021, which seems like a bad fit for Tyreek Hill. But Alex Smith was known as a conservative passer until Hill was drafted by the chiefs.
Alex Smith in his one & only career season with Tyreek Hill as a starter (2017):
– Led NFL in DEEP (20+ air yds) comp pct, pass yds, TD & passer rtg
– Had career-high 4,042 pass yds & 26 TD
– Finished as the QB4 in #FantasyFootball 🤯Tua Tagovailoa could be a STEAL at QB17 ADP
— Michelle Magdziuk (@BallBlastEm) July 23, 2022
Jaylen Waddle led all rookies in receptions in 2021, seeing how he and Hill split targets will be fascinating to watch.
Average Draft Position
Tyreek Hill is currently going as wide receiver eight in the second round of 12-team leagues. Considering he enters a new situation, seeing Hill go round two makes sense. Hill going in the second round seems like a stretch at this point in time, given all the uncertainty it is hard to know what his upside is. Feeling good about the Dolphins situation is why you should take Hill. Being comfortable with Tagovailoa under center means one anticipates Hill’s production to remain high. Hill’s teammate Jaylen Waddle is going 20 spots later in the fourth round. At this point in time, the better value may be his teammate. Nevertheless, Tyreek Hill is one of the best fantasy football receivers in recent years.
Main Photo: Embed from Getty Images
