Week 16 is in the books and it’s on to the next one. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at the best Week 17 DraftKings plays.
Week 17 DraftKings Plays
Week 16 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
Looking back at Week 16, it was worse than last week. This week 40% of the recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the wide receiver group led the way with a 50% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear this week with a 28.6% success rate. It was not a profitable week. The cash build lost all seven double-ups and went 1-3 in H2Hs. We’ll look to do even better with the picks and get back into the profits in the Week 17 DraftKings plays.
- Week 15 – $373 → $66 ($307 LOSS)
- Year Total – $5,531 → $5,382 ($149 LOSS)
Week 17 DraftKings Plays
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $6,600 @ WAS
First, let’s get something out of the way right away. In cash games, play Trey Lance. It is simply too cheap of a price tag to pass up. With that out of the way, Jalen Hurts is a great option this weekend. Despite last week’s letdown, Hurts has still been the most consistent fantasy quarterback this season as nobody has more QB1 finishes. That is because he brings such a high floor due to his rushing ability. Hurts also has an amazing matchup this week against the Washington Football Team. Washington has allowed more DraftKings points to quarterbacks than any other team. Hurts also just scored 29.6 DraftKings points against Washington two weeks ago. In that game, he had almost 300 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns. It is likely that he will be able to do whatever he wants again in this one.
Trey Lance (SF) – $4,800 v HOU
A running quarterback in a great offense at a super cheap price? Yes, please! Trey Lance is going to be the chalkiest quarterback on the slate, especially in cash games, but rightfully so. Even if he was $1,000 more he would likely be the most popular so, at this price, it is a no-brainer. Lance has only started one game this year and in that game, he had 16 carries for 89 yards. It is very clear that the San Francisco 49ers will tailor the playbook to suit his strengths. In that game, Lance only had 15.6 DraftKings points but he also scored no touchdowns either through the air or with his legs and had less than 200 yards passing and an interception. That seems like the absolute floor in a full start this week against the Houston Texans. The Texans have been decent against quarterbacks but mostly because they have been getting run all over, which still plays to Lance’s strengths. The 49ers have the second-highest implied total on the slate at 28.5 points. There really is no reason to fade Lance in cash games this week. Jam him in and spend the salary elsewhere.
Trey Lance at 4.8k on #DraftKings this week… pic.twitter.com/0agIk6meUq
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 30, 2021
Others to Consider: Josh Allen (BUF) – $8,000 v ATL, Dak Prescott (DAL) – $6,700 v ARI, Taysom Hill (NO) – $6,000 v CAR
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (IND) – $9,000 v LV
Jonathan Taylor is an absolute stud. There really is no other way to put it. After a bit of a slow start to the season, he has come on like gangbusters and been completely unstoppable. After two straight single-digit DraftKings point performances in Week 2 and Week 3, he has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in 10 of the last 12 games. Even in those two games where he didn’t, he still scored 19.7 and 13.6 DraftKings points. Taylor is averaging 24.9 DraftKings points per game this season and over 100 rushing yards per game. This week he gets a juicy matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to running backs this year so far. The Indianapolis Colts also currently sit as 8-point home favorites with a 27-point implied total so Taylor should be able to turn in another big performance here.
Ronald Jones (TB) – $6,300 @ NYJ
Trusting Ronald Jones is never an easy thing to do. Even his own coach doesn’t trust him, as Bruce Arians has shown over the years. The problem is, there is not much in the way of competition for Jones. Leonard Fournette is still out and the wide receiver corps is extremely banged up. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have no other option than to lean heavily on Jones in this game against the New York Jets. This is as good as it gets for Jones as the Jets have allowed the most DraftKings points to running backs this year. They are also one of the biggest favorites on the slate as they are favored by 13 points over the Jets despite being on the road. Just last week Jones saw 20 carries and three targets and was able to turn that into 16.1 DraftKings points. As long as he doesn’t make a mental mistake early in this game, he should be able to see another heavy workload and do well in this one.
Sony Michel (LAR) – $5,800 @ BAL
It was not too long ago that Sony Michel was a forgotten name in the fantasy football community. Oh, how quickly things can change. A trade to the Los Angeles Rams was just what he needed to turn his career around. Michel has been a perfect fit in this Rams offense when he has been given opportunities and he should see plenty this week. Darrell Henderson has been placed on the IR with a knee injury so there is not much competition for Michel. Just last week he saw over 90% of the running back opportunities. That is massive for any running back, especially one that is priced this cheaply. The matchup against the Baltimore Ravens is not anything special but it is not something to fear either. The Rams are six-point road favorites with a 26.5-point implied total. That is a great game environment to be in when a running back is seeing this massive of a workload. Michel should likely return nice value once again this week.
RBs with at least 75% of their team's backfield touches over the last month
Najee Harris – 91%
Sony Michel – 91%
David Montgomery – 85%
Jonathan Taylor – 84%
Josh Jacobs – 78%
Joe Mixon – 77%
Devin Singletary – 75%— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) December 30, 2021
Others to Consider: Jaret Patterson (WFT) – $4,800 v PHI, David Montgomery (CHI) – 6,500 v NYG, Darrel Williams (KC) – $5,800 @ CIN, D’Andre Swift (DET) – $6,000 @ SEA
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp (LAR) – $9,500 @ BAL
Cooper Kupp, always. As stated last week (and every week), if Kupp is less than $10,000 he is a great play. He is currently on pace to break the all-time single-season receiving yardage record and he has a chance to break the all-time single-season receptions record as well. It has been a truly special season for Cooper Kupp. He has scored at least 20 DraftKings points 12 times this season. He has scored at least 30 DraftKings points six times this year. Kupp has scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game this year and is averaging 28.1 DraftKings points per game. This week’s matchup against the Baltimore Ravens is a great one. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this year and the secondary has been extremely banged up lately. Just last week they got torched by Joe Burrow and the Bengals to the tune of over 500 yards through the air. This looks like an absolute smash spot for Kupp and with so much value on the slate, he is not too hard to fit in.
Antonio Brown (TB) – $6,100 @ NYJ
Antonio Brown saw a big salary spike from last week but it is still not nearly enough. With Chris Godwin out for the year with an ACL tear and Mike Evans likely to be limited, Brown should be fed targets in this one against the Jets. Last week he saw 15 targets in his first game back and caught 10 of them for 101 yards. That was good for 23.1 DraftKing points. Brown is averaging 20.8 DraftKings points per game this year. He missed half the season due to injury and suspension but has been incredible when he has played. As mentioned before, the Buccaneers are 13-point favorites over the Jets and the Jets defense can’t stop anyone. On paper, they have been good against wide receivers but that is only because they have been getting run all over by running backs. There is a bit of concern as Brown tweaked his ankle in practice on Wednesday, so that is something to monitor. Assuming Brown plays, he should be fed another heavy target share and produce a great game once again.
Antonio Brown top-2 wide receiver 👀 pic.twitter.com/N1Qm9ly7uH
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 1, 2022
Zay Jones (LV) – $3,900 @ IND
It has reached “silly season” for the Raiders and it doesn’t get much sillier than Zay Jones as the featured weapon in the passing game. As silly as it is, that is what has happened over the last few games. Jones has now seen at least seven targets and caught at least five balls in each of the last three weeks and yet he is still priced under $4,000. It is usually pretty tough to find that sort of volume at this price point. The Colts are not a matchup to necessarily target but they are not one to fear either. The game environment in this one is what is enticing. The Raiders are 8-point road underdogs in a game with a 45.5-point implied total so they should be throwing early and often. This game is also being played in a dome which is huge for the passing games of both teams, especially at this time of year. Jones should be able to return good value once again this week.
Others to Consider: Braxton Berrios (NYJ) – $3,700 v TB, A.J. Brown (TEN) – $7,200 v MIA, Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) – $5,800 v LV, Deonte Harris (NO) – $3,000 v CAR, Jakobi Meyers (NE) – $5,100 v JAX
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (ARI) – $5,200 @ DAL
Over the last few weeks, Zach Ertz has been seeing a big bump in target share. He has seen 13, 11, and seven targets over that span. That has also coincided with the DeAndre Hopkins injury. Ertz has been a big beneficiary of Hopkins missing from the Arizona Cardinals lineup. While Ertz has not had any big games in that span, he has been a solid floor type of play due to the volume. He has also not scored a touchdown in that span, otherwise, he would have had some big games in there. This week against the Dallas Cowboys is a great spot. The Cowboys are just middle-of-the-pack in terms of DraftKings points allowed to tight ends, but this is arguably the best game environment on the slate. These are two of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL. This game also has the highest combined total on the slate at 52 points. Volume should be plentiful in this one for Ertz.
Top-5 TEs in Week 16 Target Share
1. Zach Ertz 30%
2. Kyle Pitts 25%
3. Mark Andrews 25%
4. Tyler Kroft 23%
5. Dalton Schultz 21%— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) December 28, 2021
Stephen Anderson (LAC) – $2,500 v DEN
Last week Jared Cook was a chalky play and this week it could be his backup, Stephen Anderson. Anderson is actually the Los Angeles Chargers third-string tight end but Cook is out due to COVID and Donald Parham suffered a scary injury a few weeks back. Anderson is a decent pass-catcher and will be catching passes from sophomore sensation, Justin Herbert. The most intriguing part is that he is the stone minimum price this week and should be on the field a lot. Anderson does not need to do much to return good value and he allows the possibility to spend up and get plenty of studs in the lineup. It also helps that the Chargers are 7.5-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos. The Chargers also have a 26.5-point implied total and this game will be played in a dome. All of these things make Anderson a solid punt play at tight end this week.
Others to Consider: Dallas Goedert (PHI) – $5,100 v WAS, Foster Moreau (LV) – $3,800 @ IND, Cole Kmet (CHI) – $3,400 v NYG
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Trey Lance
- RB – Ronald Jones
- RB – Sony Michel
- WR – Cooper Kupp
- WR – Deonte Harris
- WR – Antonio Brown
- TE – Zach Ertz
- Flex – David Montgomery
- D/ST – Miami Dolphins
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 17 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 18. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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