The experts say the Cincinnati Bengals let go of a can’t miss star in free agency in Carl Lawson. The case of Carl Lawson screams out that the Brown family doesn’t want to spend money on the Bengals being successful. But, that line of thinking is false. Letting Lawson go was the right move for the Bengals for this season and for the future. Carl Lawson vs Trey Hendrickson will be debated for seasons to come. Both are great defensive linemen, but here is why the Bengals signing Trey Hendrickson was the correct move.
Cincinnati Bengals Signing Trey Hendrickson, Not Carl Lawson Was the Correct Move
The History of Carl Lawson
Lawson was so well regarded by NFL teams that he lasted until the fourth round in the 2017 NFL Draft. There were 115 players taken before him, and the Bengals were not even certain that they had drafted a can’t miss star when they made their selection. Lawson’s rookie season was his best so far when he finished with 8.5 sacks. He appeared in all 16 games that season with just one start.
A popular saying in the NFL is that the best ability is availability. In the next two seasons, Lawson missed 13 games due to injury. In 2018 Lawson had one sack, and in 2019 he picked up five sacks. In 2020 Lawson did rebound and played in 16 games but he notched only five sacks over those games.
Hindsight reveals that Lawson was a darling of Pro Football Focus. While fans in Cincinnati may have heard this information, no one in the national media was discussing the greatness of Lawson. Lawson’s numbers showed up in quarterback hurries. Of course, hurries can result in touchdowns for a quarterback that doesn’t go down. But the bottom line is that 8.5 of Carl Lawson’s 20 career sacks came as a rookie.
But his output was enough for the New York Jets to sign him to a three-year, $45 million contract with $30 million guaranteed. The Jets paid $15 million per year for a player that has been injury prone. The Bengals were correct to not spend that kind of money on Lawson.
Trey Hendrickson Excels
Trey Hendrickson was selected in the same 2017 draft as Lawson, but he was selected 13 spots earlier. And Hendrickson is roughly seven months older than Lawson, so age is not an issue.
Hendrickson did not play in as many games as Lawson in his first three seasons. The New Orleans Saints defensive line was very strong during his time, so he played in only 30 games from 2017 – 2019. The big difference in Hendrickson’s missed time was not due to injury. When injuries to others allowed Hendrickson to receive playing time, he exploded with 13.5 sacks in 2020.
For 13.5 sacks in 2020, the Bengals rewarded Hendrickson with a four-year, $60 million contract with $16 million guaranteed, making it less risky than Lawson’s contract.
The naysayers will say that Hendrickson benefitted from playing with better talent than the Bengals had on defense. The knock is that his sack numbers were due to receiving single coverage. Some question how Hendrickson will adjust to playing with “lesser” talent.
Lawson vs Hendrickson
Carl Lawson’s most successful season came when he was playing alongside Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap in their healthier days. Which begs the question, which is the better long-term investment? Carl Lawson or Trey Hendrickson? Should the Bengals have paid $15 million annually, with more guaranteed money (almost double), for a player that had five sacks last year and missed parts of two seasons due to injuries? The Bengals made the right move by signing Hendrickson, who has remained healthy and showed what he is capable of when he sees playing time, for roughly half of the guaranteed money Lawson received.
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2020 Prediction
Hendrickson brings the production of 13.5 sacks instead of the promise of quarterback hurries. He also brings the experience of being a part of a high performing defense and the lessons learned from playing with more heralded players. Carl Lawson may be the darling of the national media now that he plays in New York, but Trey Hendrickson will be leading the Bengals to the playoffs this season while Lawson misses the playoffs again. The Cincinnati Bengals signing Trey Hendrickson was the right move.
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