At first glance it would seem absolutely insane for the Houston Texans to trade Deshaun Watson, who is one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. But this is the same organization (albeit under then head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien) that traded away DeAndre Hopkins, possibly the best receiver in the league, for essentially a basket of oranges. Watson isn’t happy with how the hiring of new general manager Nick Caserio transpired, or with how the Texans organization has operated lately. With the moves they have made and the Texans being the only team/organization with a head coach opening to not interview Eric Bieniemy, it is easy to see why Watson is frustrated. Each season in Houston is a waste of his talent and another season down the drain. Of course, the Texans and Caserio should do all they can to try to win with their superstar quarterback, but they simply might not be able to put any pieces around him and Watson may no longer want to be in Houston. Here is how a Deshaun Watson trade could make sense and with which teams the Texans could and should try to strike a deal.
Deshaun Watson Trade Could Make Sense for Houston Texans
The Texans, thanks in large part to O’Brien, don’t have any picks in the first two rounds of the draft this year. They have eight picks in the 2021 NFL Draft (one each in rounds three, five and seven, two in the fourth round and three in the sixth round), but no first or second-round picks due to a 2019 trade with the Miami Dolphins. Teams can usually add pieces through the draft for a lot cheaper than they can through free agency. Teams can also leverage draft picks, particularly in the first and second round, into players that desperately fill a need. But Houston does not have this luxury. However, if they actually trade Watson they could acquire both draft picks and salary cap flexibility.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Draft Picks
After a dreadful 1-15 season the Jacksonville Jaguars have the first pick in this year’s draft. The consensus number one pick, with good reason, is quarterback Trevor Lawrence, out of Clemson. But, in addition to the first overall pick, the Jags also have the Los Angeles Rams first and fourth-round picks thanks to the Jalen Ramsey trade, the Minnesota Vikings second-round pick courtesy of the Yannick Ngakoue trade and the Cleveland Browns fifth-round pick due to the Ronnie Harrison trade. The Jags also have the most cap space ($75 million) this off-season.
Deal
Jacksonville could offer a package of the first overall pick in this year’s draft, along with the first-round pick they got from the Rams and one or both of their second-round picks in this year’s draft for Watson and a third or fourth-round pick. Wouldn’t the Texans have to accept that deal, despite how great Watson has been? The Texans recently extended Watson’s contract so they could get that off the books and free up some cap room since Lawrence would be on a rookie deal. They could then use the additional picks to actually try to put a team together that is worth something outside of the quarterback.
How Jaguars Benefit
Some may question why Jacksonville would make this deal. The reason they would is because Watson is a proven commodity. Andrew Luck was a “generational talent” coming out of Stanford and he was drafted number one overall, rightly so, by the Indianapolis Colts. But, despite Luck’s obvious talent, that pick never really panned out in the big picture sense, mainly due to injuries Luck sustained throughout his career. Lawrence should absolutely be drafted number one overall this year and he will most likely go on to have an amazing NFL career, but he’s still unproven at the NFL level. Watson has shown what he is capable of as a professional. Without him the Texans may well have gone winless this past season. The former Clemson quarterback threw for a league best 4,823 yards with 33 touchdowns (tied for seventh most) and only seven interceptions. His QBR of 71.0 was good for 12th best and his rating of 112.4 was second to only Aaron Rodgers (who will probably be the 2020 league MVP).
On September 5, 2020 the Texans and Watson agreed to a four-year extension worth $160 million (total value of the deal is $177.54 million) and $111 million in guarantees. This deal could keep Watson in Houston through 2025. The Texans have almost no cap space, but the Jaguars have enough salary cap room to absorb Watson’s contract and make moves in free agency.
Miami Dolphins
Draft Picks
While a trade with the Jaguars makes more sense, the Miami Dolphins should also call the Texans regarding acquiring Watson. The Dolphins, who have two first-round picks this year, including the third pick (ironically from the Texans), have the draft capital to make a deal as well. The Dolphins went 10-6 this season and somewhat went back and forth between career journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Tua Tagovailoa under center.
Deal
Given the fact that the Dolphins had a nice season, but weren’t completely sold on either quarterback, it is possible they would part with their two first-round picks and one or both of their second-round picks this year in exchange for Watson and a third or fourth-round pick. Yes, the Fins could use those picks in other areas, but Watson would be a serious upgrade at quarterback, even if Tagovailoa improves in his second year and beyond. Normally it would seem really premature to essentially give up on a quarterback after one season, but Watson is that kind of good and the Buffalo Bills also reside in the AFC East and Josh Allen is playing at a really high level.
The issue with this proposed deal in comparison to the hypothetical trade with the Jags is Jacksonville has the first overall pick and Miami only has the third. And that first pick represents Trevor Lawrence. However, Houston could still draft a quarterback (Justin Fields out of Ohio State or Zach Wilson out of BYU) with the third pick as at least one of them would still be on the board or demand that Tagovailoa be included in the deal. The Texans could then use the additional picks to put some talent around Fields, Wilson or Tagovailoa and hope either Fieldsd or Wilson works out or Tagovailoa continues to improve and stays healthy. Making a trade with Jacksonville makes more sense from the Texans perspective, but a deal with the Dolphins could work out well too.
Last Word
The Texans simply cannot make the playoffs and go on a deep run as currently constructed. Parting with a quarterback of Watson’s talent and leadership would be difficult, but given their roster, draft capital and salary cap limitations, it may be the quickest way to right the ship in Houston. A Deshaun Watson trade might just make sense for the Houston Texans.
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