Drew Lock has never lost to the Los Angeles Chargers. In fact, his performances against the Chargers have earned him two-thirds of his division wins through his 15 career games thus far. If the Denver Broncos are to sweep the Chargers this season, they will need their quarterback to continue improving on his past performances against L.A., continuing the Drew Lock undefeated streak.
Keeping the Drew Lock Undefeated Streak Going
Contextualizing Drew Lock’s Past Performances
Through two games against the Chargers, Drew Lock has led the Broncos to a combined four-point margin of victory. 23-20 and 31-30 wins illustrate the competitive nature of these contests, suggesting Lock’s third game against Los Angeles will follow suit. These games offer quite a bit of context to craft an effective lens through which to look at Week 16’s matchup.
Through these two aforementioned games, Lock accrued 382 passing yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. According to Pro Football Reference, he also averaged a bad throw on 18.55 percent of his passing attempts.
Onward and Upward
Strangely enough, Lock’s numbers were superior in his second game against L.A. despite finding himself under pressure on 12.1 percent more of his dropbacks than he had in his first game against the Chargers (25 percent and 12.9 percent respectively). Having played this second game without Courtland Sutton (who caught both of Lock’s touchdowns against L.A. in 2019), this improvement is even more puzzling.
His 63.8 percent completion percentage against Los Angeles is about 10 percent higher than his percentage against any other division rival. Additionally, he has thrown more touchdowns against Los Angeles than he has against any of the other 11 teams he has played against. If the Broncos want to collect their sixth win of the season, he will need to exhibit a similar degree of improvement.
How Drew Lock Can Sweep Los Angeles
Drew Lock has spent the majority of his collegiate and professional football career trying to do it all, himself. This has resulted in a gunslinger mentality that led to Denver leading the league in attempts deep down the field. It also left Denver dead last in throws behind or near the line of scrimmage.
Unsurprisingly, this is a recipe for disaster with a rookie quarterback (which Lock still is in terms of games played) in his first year in a new system. When one considers that dating back to college, this is Lock’s fifth scheme and fifth offensive coordinator in as many years, these concerns compound.
A Team Game Includes Coaches
For Lock to continue growing as a passer—especially against Los Angeles—he will need to continue to focus on higher percentage throws and checkdowns. The onus for this responsibility does not solely fall on Lock, but also on offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur (to call the correct plays in the correct situations) and head coach Vic Fangio (to hold accountable Shurmur and Lock alike).
While Lock’s average depth of target actually increased in his second game against the Chargers, it might behoove the Broncos offense to try to keep this metric static, especially now that Chris Harris, Jr. is back on the field for L.A.
With the prospect of Phillip Lindsay missing the Chargers game due to injury, the Broncos will need to rely heavily on Royce Freeman and Melvin Gordon III to facilitate a play-action passing offensive. Without an effective running game or play-action passing attack, it is likely the high octane Chargers offense will force the Broncos to abandon the run in the second half, which would almost guarantee a Denver loss.
Gameday Specifics
It might be too obvious to simply assert Lock needs to spread the ball out to his playmakers. Where it grows more specific is in the play-calling side of this sentiment. Electric players like Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler need to receive more touches, regardless of the form in which those touches come.
If Shurmur and Lock cannot organically get these rookies their targets, they will need to manufacture touches. This is achievable through screen passes, jet sweeps, end-arounds, touch-pass plays, and effective in-breaking or crossing routes on play-action. Needless to say, for the latter to work, the play design will, too, need to be efficient.
Making Peyton Proud
The Broncos offense can also find success by employing consistent pre-snap motions to identify man or zone coverage, a tactic often utilized during the Peyton Manning era in Denver. When the Chargers are in man coverage, Lock can know before the ball is even snapped that he will likely need to check down before the pass rush takes advantage of tight coverage. When they are employing zone coverage, Lock can feel more comfortable standing in the pocket for a slightly extended period of time.
These motions would also allow for more misdirection in the offense. As Broncos Country has seen in recent weeks, misdirection seems particularly effective for the young offensive lineup. Against both the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs, for example, it was a wide receiver’s pre-snap motion out of a bunch formation in shotgun that facilitated misdirection and ensuing touchdowns to Tim Patrick.
Contextualizing Drew Lock’s Future Performance
It is no secret Drew Lock is a polarizing figure to Broncos Country. Many fans have impatiently demanded his replacement, while countless others have rightfully remained patient and look forward to his inevitable return as starting quarterback in 2021. Regardless of what fans might think of the passer who is not even old enough to rent a car and is still young enough to be on his parents’ insurance, he has undeniable potential.
His performances against Los Angeles, albeit still not at an elite level, illustrate what can happen when his potential comes to fruition. If the Broncos want to continue Drew Lock’s undefeated streak against the Chargers, they will need to maximize their efforts to facilitate this transition from potential to kinetic. This entails more consistently using the offensive tactics that have actually worked this season (e.g., pulling offensive linemen, quick throws, naked bootlegs/moving the pocket, screen passes, and crossing routes) and getting the ball out of Lock’s hands quickly and efficiently.
Considering the objective inconsistency of Pat Shurmur and the coaching staff as a whole, it would not be unreasonable to not expect this to happen. Ideally, Shurmur will do his job properly and execute these tactics throughout the remainder of the season, but if the first 14 games were any indication it is somewhat unlikely.
Drew Lock Capable of Keeping the Streak Alive
Drew Lock is more than capable of defeating the Los Angeles Chargers, just as he has every time he has played them. With that said, he will need some help. Because of this? Barring a catastrophic performance in spite of the aforementioned gameplan specifics, Lock cannot reasonably shoulder the blame for a potential loss.
The Broncos want to continue Drew Lock’s undefeated streak. Broncos Country want to continue Drew Lock’s undefeated streak. Above all else, however? Drew Lock wants to continue Drew Lock’s undefeated streak. For fans, it might not even be a matter of want, but a matter of need.
As the Rolling Stones contend, you can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
