The Atlanta Falcons-Green Bay Packers game on Monday Night Football has all the makings of a primetime shootout. The line opened at Green Bay -5 and quickly climbed to the Packers as a seven-point favorite at Lambeau Field. Bettors have continued to back Green Bay with roughly 60 percent of the bets and 64 percent of the money wagered on the home favorite. The more interesting betting angle comes from the over/under.
Monday Night Football Preview: How to Bet the Atlanta Falcons-Green Bay Packers Matchup
This game total opened at 57.5 and climbed as high as 58, before dropping to the current level of 57 points. There is still variation among many sportsbooks, so it is always important to use a site like Wetten.com to find the most favorable line.
High game totals tempt the public to bet the under, but recent history indicates we should do the opposite. Using data from BetLabs, there have been 18 times since the 2003 season where the NFL total closed at 57 points or higher. In those games, the over has a 12-6 (66.7 percent) hit percentage for a R.O.I. (Return On Investment) of 30.9 percent. Since 2017, the over is 7-2 including the 69-point explosion in Seattle’s 38-31 win over Dallas in Week 3. The Packers have the highest team total on the Week 4 slate at 31.8 points. For a seven-point underdog, Atlanta’s 24.8 team total reinforces the high scoring floor in this contest.
Green Bay Offensive Attack
Green Bay’s offense has been one of the NFL’s most efficient through the first three weeks. The Packers rank second in offensive DVOA per FootballOutsiders. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown nine touchdowns with no interceptions and is sixth in fantasy points per game (24.5). Green Bay should again have the services of top wideout Davante Adams, who has recovered from a hamstring injury suffered in Week 2. This lessens the impact of placing wide receiver Allen Lazard on injured reserve with a core-muscle injury. Look for lanky wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling to stretch the field with his 4.37 speed and 67th percentile catch radius. Rodgers has also built a rapport with veteran tight end Robert Tonyan, who provided the overall TE3 performance in their 37-30 Week 3 win at New Orleans.
Even worse for the Atlanta defense, they will be without both starting safeties, starting cornerback A.J. Terrell, and defensive end Takk McKinley. The Falcons’ ability to generate pressure and defend Rodgers’ aerial attack will be at a season-low.
Atlanta will also be challenged to also stop the versatility of running back Aaron Jones, who ranks second in rushing yards (303) and third in targets (18) at the position. Under Dan Quinn, the Falcons have constantly ceded running back receptions, giving Jones a chance for massive production.
Atlanta’s Offensive Attack
Quarterback Matt Ryan should have his full complement of receivers, all of which have recorded big performances this season. No NFL receiver has played better than Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley, who ranks first at the position in air yards (542), red-zone targets (seven), and fantasy points per game (26.8). Perennial All-Pro Julio Jones is expected to return after missing Week 3 with a hamstring injury, while slot man Russell Gage has cleared the concussion protocol.
Green Bay’s defense has struggled to stop the running game. The Packers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (29.2) including the third-most receptions (24). The Packers are just 27th in run defense DVOA. They have fared better in the passing game but will be vulnerable to tight end receptions with the absence of linebacker Christian Kirksey. Look for tight end Hayden Hurst (ninth in tight end air yards) to convert the opportunities he receives in the short to intermediate area of the field.
The Falcons play fast, regardless of the score. They rank second with an average of 23.8 seconds per play, trailing only Dallas. Even when they have led by seven points or more, Atlanta is still the seventh-fastest team at 26.9 seconds. Regardless of the situation, the Falcons want to push the pace.
The Pick
This promises to be one of the most exciting games of the 2020 season. With Atlanta’s defensive limitations, they will need to score points to stay competitive. The Falcons simply lack the personnel to control the ball and play the time of possession battle. Green Bay has shown no signs that their offense will struggle against an Atlanta defense that has failed to hold substantial second-half leads in two consecutive weeks.
Look for the Falcons and Packers to rely on their bevy of offensive weapons and crest in the 60-point plateau on Monday Night Football.
