NFL prop bets provide devout fantasy football zealots some of the best opportunities to take advantage of the wagering market. With all the time fans put into researching and analyzing individual players and trends, why not apply that to the betting world? Each week, Last Word On Pro Football will provide a look at some of the best prop bets for that week.
Let’s build on last week’s perfect 5-0 record.
Below is a look at the best Week 3 prop bets for the Week 3 Sunday/Monday schedule. (All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook).
NFL Week 3 Fantasy Prop Bets
Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Touchdowns (-225)
Quarterback touchdown prop bets are frowned upon because of their reliance on luck, but this one is too good to pass up. The public is backing the Colts with 54% of the bets and 68% of the money per the Action Network App. The line has ballooned from Colts -7 to Colts -11.5. Darnold has thrown a touchdown in 23 of his 28 career games (82.1%). In a game that projects for a ton of negative game script for New York, Darnold will have a ton of pass attempts. Whether it’s during the regular game flow or in “garbage time,” I like his chances for at least one passing touchdown.
Adam Thielen Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)
The Titans enter their Week 3 game at Minnesota with a ton of injuries in their secondary. Tennessee will be without their two top cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson (knee) and Malcolm Butler (quad) due to injury. Per Player Profiler, Thielen ranks first in wide receiver Air Yards share at 53.5%. He is the clear primary receiver for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who will need to score to keep pace with Minnesota’s poor defense. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak expressed a preference to run the ball more this week, scaring off potential bettors from the Vikings passing game. Thielen has the third-highest target share of any wide receiver at 33.3%. In a desperate spot at home against a short-handed Tennessee secondary, I’m going with the over on 4.5 receptions.
Mitchell Trubisky Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Over his four year career with the Bears, Trubisky has averaged 25.9 rushing yards per game. He faces an Atlanta defense that has the most fantasy points per game of any NFL team to opposing quarterbacks. The Falcons allowed both Russell Wilson (29 rushing yards) and Dak Prescott (18 rushing yards) to approach this total, and allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2019. In a game with a 47.5 total, Trubisky will need to score points, and should have ample opportunities to run Falcons defense that has allowed a total of 78 points through two weeks.
Derrick Henry Under 102.5 (-112)
We are returning back to Derrick Henry for another under on his rushing total. Last week, his rushing prop against a Jacksonville team he usually dominates was an absurd 118.5. This week on the road, it is still too high at 102.5. The Jaguars allowed 84 yards on 25 attempts for just a 3.4 yards per carry average. Henry’s is annually less efficient in the beginning of the year, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in September over his career. He has failed to crest the 4.0 yards per carry level in either game this season. I expect Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer to have a strong gameplan to limit Henry and do not see him breaking 100 yards in Week 3.
Jordan Reed Under 52.5 (-143)
The betting public will back the over on this receiving yardage prop for Reed, who caught seven passes for 50 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Jets. But even with that big performance, Reed still failed to exceed this total. Vegas is offering +115 odds on the over, tempting the public to simply project Reed for a George Kittle-like workload. Backup quarterback Nick Mullens has targeted the tight end spot heavily, but only when it was Kittle. In six games with Mullens, Kittle has averaged 8.3 targets, six receptions, 102 receiving yards, and 18.2 fantasy points. Last Sunday, 45 of Reed’s receiving yards and both of his touchdowns came in the first half with Jimmy Garoppolo. The Giants have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Avoid recency bias and take the under on Reed’s receiving yardage total.
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