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Week 1 DFS: Top Quarterback Plays

Week 1 provides an opportunity to take advantage of DFS prices on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Let's examine the best DFS Week 1 quarterback plays.
DFS Week 1

Finally, some positive news for 2020: NFL DFS is back! We are just two weeks away from the Thursday Night Football season opener between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. Week 1 provides an opportunity to take advantage of DFS prices that have been set without the benefit of preseason games. There are values hidden throughout the slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Let’s examine the quarterback position for the best Week 1 plays.

Week 1 Top DFS Plays

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan ($7800 FD, $6700 DK):  The Atlanta game has the second-highest total projection on the Sunday main slate. Over his past 15 home games, Ryan has averaged 307.2 passing yards per game. In Week 1, Ryan gets a Seattle defense that ranked just 18th in DVOA per FootballOutsiders. The Seahawks ranked 24th last season with just 2.1 sacks per game. He is only the fifth-highest play on FanDuel and will finally play behind a completely healthy offensive line. Injuries have limited Atlanta’s offensive efficiency, ranking 26th and 25th the past two seasons in protection rate (PlayerProfiler).  The Falcons offense has a bonanza of receiving weapons with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and newly acquired tight end Hayden Hurst. Need more convincing?  Ryan gets a boost by playing in an “even” year.

Ryan is priced right in a high-scoring home game against a Seattle defense that is no longer the “Legion of Boom.”

Russell Wilson ($8400 FD, $7000 DK): Same game, different quarterback. Even Russell Wilson himself has started to push the #LetRussCook narrative. In their Week 1 matchup at Atlanta, the Seahawks will need to do that. In a likely shootout, Seattle should be able to carve up at Atlanta secondary that ranked just 25th-best against the pass last season. Both Tyler Lockett (4.40 40-Yard Dash) and D.K. Metcalf (4.33 40-Yard Dash) will provide vertical weapons on the friendly indoor carpet of the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Wilson can also attack Atlanta on the ground, where opposing quarterbacks tallied the second-most rushing touchdowns (five) against the Falcons. His price tag is higher than Ryan on both sites, but still a very safe value in a high-scoring NFC battle.

Teddy Bridgewater ($6800 FD, $5900 DK):  The comeback of Teddy Bridgewater from a gruesome knee injury is one of the true feel-good stories in the NFL. In Carolina, Bridgewater will get to lead an offense filled with explosive playmakers. The Panthers feature one of the fastest receiving cores in the league with D.J. Moore (4.42 40-Yard Dash), Curtis Samuel (4.31), and newly-acquired Robby Anderson (4.41). Add super-athletic tight end Ian Thomas, and the 27-year old Bridgewater has the best group of weapons in his career.

He will open the season at home against a Raiders team that ranked 31st in defensive DVOA, with the second-fewest interceptions (nine) of any team in the NFL. The Raiders allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the fourth-most passing touchdowns. Bridgewater’s price is affordable and allows for savings at the other positions while having a path to a high-end QB1 Week 1 performance. With a projected total of 47 points, Bridgewater is a great DFS value in an ideal situation.

 

Carson Wentz ($7700 FD, $6300 DK): Death, taxes, and Carson Wentz/Doug Pederson in Week 1.

Philadelphia has the best pair of tight ends in the league with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The recent injury to rookie Jalen Reagor will cause Wentz’s ownership to drop, and then there’s DeSean Jackson. Since 2011, Jackson has averaged 8.4 targets, 5.5 receptions, 93.4 receiving yards, 0.75 touchdowns, and 19.3 PPR fantasy points per game. Add in an efficient receiving back in Miles Sanders (23 receptions last six games of 2019), and Wentz has a fantastic group of receiving weapons.

The Eagles face a Washington team that ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA. Wentz should find plenty of fantasy success against a division rival who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Facing a weak divisional opponent in Week 1, Wentz is a strong DFS play.

 

Josh Allen ($7900 FD, $6500 DK): The third-year franchise QB for Buffalo draws a favorable home matchup against the Jets. Allen’s versatility allows for a safe floor and huge upside, as illustrated by over 1100 rushing yards his first two seasons combined. Allen was below-average against the Jets in the 2019 opener, finishing only as the QB18. But the addition of Stefon Diggs, veteran wideouts John Brown and Cole Beasley, along with the backfield receiving duo of Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss provide enough weapons to set up Allen for a great opening game. New York produced the second-best run defense last season, ensuring big-play opportunities for Allen. He’s slightly below the Top QB tier in Week 1, but still a very solid play.

 

Cam Newton ($7300 FD, $6100 DK): This may be the lowest DFS price we see for the former 2015 NFL MVP all season. Newton is only the 11th most expensive quarterback on both sites, and is playing in Foxboro against the worst defense in the NFL in 2019. The Dolphins allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the most passing touchdowns (39) with an additional three QB rushing scores.

There are enough small concerns that Newton is not the top Week 1 play, including unfamiliarity with the Patriots offense, the coaching connection between Miami and New England, and a lack of proven receiving options. However, Newton succeeded in Carolina with limited weaponry and was producing at a Top fantasy QB level in 2018 before his string of injuries.

The over/under of 43.5 is low, but Newton’s versatility at this price is too good to pass up.

 

Best of the Rest: 

Tyrod Taylor ($7000 FD, $5600 DK): Cheapest Week 1 option that has mid-tier QB in his range of outcomes. Bengals 30th in defensive DVOA last season
Jimmy Garoppolo ($7400 FD, $5800 DK): Will catch low ownership due to Deebo Samuel injury; at home vs. Arizona weak pass defense (27th in pass DVOA)
Lamar Jackson ($9400 FD, $8100 DK): Obvious high weekly potential, but rival Browns and high-price tag reduce Week 1 value.

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Mike Randle

Mike Randle

Mike Randle is a fantasy football fanatic. He is Team Manager for the LWOS Fantasy Football Department and contributes to Dynasty Trade Calculator. Mike also hosts the Pickin' Up the Blitz Fantasy Football Podcast. He is a happily married father of two beautiful children.

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