As a pass rusher in the modern era of the NFL, sacks are almost unarguably the metric by which most pundits measure your efficiency. That said, as the all-time sack leader in Denver Broncos franchise history, the 2019 season of Von Miller offers itself as evidence to suggest this method of appraisal may be less effective than these same pundits considered Miller’s performance in 2019 while simultaneously providing greater context for said performance.
Vonward and Upward
Dispelling Rumors of Von Miller’s Regression
In Miller’s so-called “down year,” he accrued eight sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and 20 quarterback hits, all of which were his lowest totals outside of his injury- and suspension-shortened season in 2013. While sacks certainly influence the outcome of drives and can fundamentally alter both the physical and mental aspects of a quarterback’s performance (see Brett Favre against the New Orleans Saints in the January 2010 NFC Championship Game or Tom Brady against the Denver Broncos in the January 2016 AFC Championship Game), they are neither the be-all nor the end-all metric for a pass rusher— pressures are far more salient and efficient as an indicator of a rusher’s impact on the game.
So what?
It is time to accept the truth: statistics are useless without context.
Contextualizing the Chase
Pro Football Reference defines a quarterback pressure as the sum of a defender’s hurries, knockdowns, and sacks (the three tenets of a pass rusher’s role against passing plays). In Von Miller’s 2018 Pro Bowl season, the former Texas A&M Aggie blitzed 88 times, earning 12 hurries, seven knockdowns, and 14.5 sacks for a total of 34 pressures (though PFR lists his 2018 total as 35).
Named to the Pro Bowl and as a second-team All-Pro for his efforts that year, Von Miller surpassed his pressure numbers in his first season under head coach Vic Fangio in 2019 with six more hurries, three more knockdowns, and six and a half fewer sacks on 36 fewer blitzes, yielding 37 pressures (more than double the next player on the team’s numbers and comprising just over 27 percent of the team’s total pressures). Additionally, he managed to improve his missed tackle percentage by 6.9 percent. To widen our lens, Miller’s totals in 2018 were not enough to break the top 20 in league-wide pressures, whereas in 2019 his pressures were 12th overall, offering additional context as the only player in the top 15 who played less than 16 games.
Contextualizing Von Miller’s 2019
Looking ahead, Von Miller says he wants to lead the league in sacks as DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, and Aaron Donald have before him. The context says it is more realistic than another season without double-digit sacks.
Despite the trials and tribulations of Von Miller’s apparent down year (countless injuries to starters, a perpetually stagnant offense designed by a rookie play-caller who failed to earn a second season with Denver, and an immobile veteran quarterback leading the offense at the twilight of his career), the team managed to conclude the 2019 campaign 10th in scoring defense and 12th in total defense after having ranked 15th in scoring and 13th in total defense in 2018.
These numbers are consistent with the improvement in the Chicago Bears league-wide defensive standing in Fangio’s first year, where they made the jump from 31st in scoring and 30th in total to 20th in scoring and 14th in total. But do we see a similar rise in numbers from year one under Fangio to year two?
What about in the individual statistics of a team’s number one pass rusher, like Denver’s Von Miller?
Using the Past to Inform the Present
In Fangio’s second year with Chicago, the team regressed to 24th in scoring and 15th in total defense. That said, players in the system saw marked changes in their statistical output. Lamarr Houston, for example, entered his first and only year with the Chicago Bears carrying a career-high in single-season sack productivity of six. In his single season with Fangio, he accrued eight sacks (like Von Miller did in 2019), with Willie Young putting up six and a half total sacks in the same season.
When Young became the primary pass rusher in 2016, Fangio’s second season and Young’s second season with him, his numbers jumped to seven and a half. When Young played only four games in 2017, Akiem Hicks, who totaled seven sacks under Fangio in 2016, saw his numbers jump to eight and a half sacks in his second year in the scheme. A similar jump for Miller in his second season in Fangio’s system would see him earn ten sacks, hypothetically matching his 2017 Pro Bowl season’s total.
Even without fully delving into how the significant injuries in each level of the 2019 Broncos defensive unit artificially deflated the former Super Bowl MVP’s statistical productivity concerning sacks, it is obvious his responsibilities in the scheme changed, as his 36 fewer blitzes illustrate. Despite knee-jerk reactions from fans and pundits alike, one cannot solely chalk Von Miller’s second-worst season for sacks in his career up to an individual’s performance in a team sport the likes of football.
Concluding the Contextualization
In a scheme as unique and dynamic as Fangio’s, where he places a premium on zone coverage, tackling in the secondary, and versatility in the front seven, successful individual statistics rely on the efforts of players in complementary positions and overall context. For example, in 2019, injuries befell the team’s best pass rusher behind Miller (Bradley Chubb, with whom Von Miller put up 14.5 sacks in their one shared season) and their second cornerback (Bryce Callahan). Compounded with an inconsistent carousel at positions in the front seven, Miller often endured double- and triple-team blocks.
In 2020, the team will not only be in its second season under Fangio, but will have added cornerback A.J. Bouye and five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, will have brought Chubb and Callahan back from injury, and will have re-signed Mike Purcell and Shelby Harris, who were pivotal in the trenches last season. This is, of course, without mentioning the continued development of Alexander Johnson or the draft acquisitions of McTelvin Agim, Justin Strnad, and Derrek Tuszka, all of whom, should they make the team, have a chance to make an impact in rushing the passer in the front seven this season and beyond.
Taking into account that Von Miller has consistently improved his sack numbers the years following a season where he had fewer sacks than the year prior, it becomes rather simple. Guaranteed to face fewer double- and triple-teams this season, it is more than reasonable for Broncos Country to contend the reports of Von Miller’s career’s death are greatly exaggerated.
