Kenny Golladay and DeAndre Hopkins are both rated inside the top 10 in wide receiver rankings for re-draft this season. Golladay enjoyed a breakout year with the Detroit Lions, while Hopkins continued to do what he has done for years. While most would agree Hopkins is the more talented player, talent doesn’t always translate to fantasy football production. Hopkins moved from the Houston Texans to the Arizona Cardinals in 2020. Now his role is likely to look a lot different from what it was in Houston. Meanwhile, Golladay returns to a familiar offense. Fantasy football team managers should target Golladay of Hopkins.
Fantasy Football: Draft Kenny Golladay Over DeAndre Hopkins
Comparison of Last Season
Golladay enjoyed a breakout season in 2019. His 13.5 fantasy-point-per-game in half-PPR leagues was eighth-best among wide receivers. This was despite playing half the season with subpar quarterbacks. Looking at just his first eight games, before Matthew Stafford went down, his points-per-game increased to 15.2. Still, Golladay continued to put up more than respectable numbers despite below-par quarterback play in Jeff Driskel and David Blough.
Those weren’t the only injuries Golladay had to deal with around him. The team also struggled to keep their run game going with starter Kerryon Johnson missing eight games. His opposite wide receiver, Marvin Jones, missed three games with an injury. Despite everything, Golladay topped ten points in 10 of 16 games, and 20 points in five games. Overall Golladay had 1,190 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Hopkins was his usual self with Texans. He enjoyed his fifth straight season with at least 150 targets, put up 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns. Interestingly, Hopkins had fewer yards and touchdowns, but his ridiculous volume of catches kept him ranked ahead of Golladay. With the team lacking a true number two wide receiver, Hopkins was looked to early and often to make plays and keep the Texans in the game. He finished the season with the fifth-best average in points-per-game with 14.5.
It’s fair to wonder what could have been for Golladay had had he kept the pace he was on with Stafford under center.
Continuity
But now it is fair to wonder how Hopkins is going to keep his numbers up. In one of the more shocking trades in recent memory, Bill O’Brien shipped Hopkins off to the Arizona Cardinals. The trade will make any Cardinals fan’s mouth water. The team now has arguably the best trio of wide receivers in the game with Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk. However, that is a lot of mouths to feed in a Kliff Kingsbury offense that loves to spread the ball around.
Will Fuller was second on the Texans in targets last year but only saw 71 compared to Hopkins’ 150. Compare that to the Cardinals’ top two target split, where Fitzgerald saw 109 to Kirk’s 108. In this situation, there is virtually no chance Hopkins gets a sixth consecutive 100-target season, and he may not even see 100.
And things only get worse from there. Many believe that continuity will rule this off-season. The COVID-19 outbreak has cut training camps down and completely eliminated the preseason. This gives newcomers to teams less time to develop chemistry with their teammates and learn their new systems. This is especially important for wide receivers, who need to be on the same page as their quarterbacks.
Admittedly, Hopkins is used to rotating quarterbacks out, and just having them chuck the ball to him, but his quarterback, Kyler Murray, might not follow that lead. Having already relied on Fitzgerald and Kirk during his rookie season, Hopkins might not get as many looks as he’d like
Golladay on the other hand returns to the same system. Stafford, Johnson, and Jones should all be healthy and ready to go. The offense will hope to pick up where they left off with Stafford playing. They were averaging 390.87 yards of offense, which would have ranked fourth in the NFL if they would have kept that pace. The only real change was adding running back D’Andre Swift in the second round, which will keep things moving should Johnson go down again.
ADP and Value for Kenny Golladay Over DeAndre Hopkins
FantasyPros has Hopkins as the WR5 and a fringe first-round pick. ESPN seems to still think Hopkins plays for Houston, ranking him as the WR3. Golladay comes in at WR7 for FantasyPros and WR8 for ESPN. Considering the logjam of running backs in the top two rounds, Golladay is a guy that could fall to the end of the second round.
What that means for those drafting in the back end of the first, is that they should leave Hopkins be and target a running back. Then, once the snake comes back around, Golladay should be there for taking. Or, pull a double whammy and get a guy like Julio Jones to pair with Golladay. Finally, the zero-running-back team manager who is able to snag Michael Thomas in the first could end up with two top-five receivers if the pull the trigger on Golladay in the second.
But whatever happens, Hopkins should be kept in mind as a player who is unlikely to live up to his ADP with his new team. On the other hand, Golladay seems to be rated at his floor and has as high a ceiling as anyone on the board.
