Leonard Fournette is a rather polarizing running back in the NFL. He has about as much talent as any back out there. The Jacksonville Jaguars saw this and took him fourth overall in the 2017 draft. Fantasy players also knew he could immediately be a lead back, and he was scooped up in the first round of many redraft leagues despite never playing a down in the NFL.
But things started to go awry for Fournette in his second year. He was hampered by injuries and even missed a game after being suspended for throwing a punch at another player. Still, he came into 2019 and redeemed himself, having his best statistical year as a pro. So why is a guy who has a straight shot at a top-ten finish being rated so low in fantasy football? He could be a real value in 2020.
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Fantasy Football Preview: Leonard Fournette
Career in Review
Few backs have had as weird a career as Fournette. As a rookie in 2017, he burst onto the fantasy landscape with 1,040 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. He added a respectable 302 receiving yards and another touchdown. Though he was looked at more of a standard-league running back, he still finished as RB8 in half-point PPR leagues, despite missing three games. His 16.3 fantasy points-per-game were sixth-best in the league.
He looked on pace to pick up where he left off in 2018, but instead only appeared in eight games due to both suspensions and injuries. Even when he played, he wasn’t as effective, regressing to just 13.7 points-per-game. Coming into 2019, Fournette’s ADP plummeted from being a top back and a first-round pick, to RB15 with a third-round grade.
Instead, he came in and rewarded those who still believed in him with his best year as a pro. He racked up 1,152 rushing yards and showed he has value in the passing game, catching 76 passes for 522 yards. The only knock on Fournette is his touchdown total. He somehow only managed to see the end zone three times all year. This caused him to only tack in an RB9 finish despite blowing away the scrimmage yards he had as a rookie.
Overall Fournette’s 2019 was somewhat of a microcosm of his career in terms of his huge potential that can sometimes go unrealized. For example, week four he had a ridiculous 88-yard run – that he didn’t score on. He ended the game with 245 scoreless scrimmage yards. His stat line the week before is even more mind-boggling. Fournette churned out a 69-yard run (that he also didn’t score on). However, he finished the game with only 66 rushing yards on 15 carries.
2020 Preview
Apparently, the Jaguars didn’t trust Fournette enough to pick up his fifth-year option. This means that long-term, Fournette is unlikely to be wearing a Jaguars uniform. But short-term, it means they are going to get all they can from Fournette. And Fournette also comes in with a chip on his shoulder hoping he can convince another team (or even the Jaguars) to give him the payday he deserves.
Other than that, most of the Jaguars’ offense remains intact. Jacksonville and head coach Doug Marrone are rolling with the upstart Gardner Minshew at quarterback. DJ Chark hopes to continue their development behind their strong chemistry, and other names like Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook return.
Some are touting former Washington Football Team scatback Chris Thompson as a threat to steal targets in the pass game from Fournette. While it’s not out of the question, Thompson will have to first prove he can stay healthy. He hasn’t appeared in more than 11 games for the past three seasons and is now 29 years old. If Fournette can keep his focus as he did in 2019, he can probably also keep Thompson on the bench.
Leonard Fournette ADP and Outlook
Fournette has one of the most head-scratching ADP of any back out there in redraft. Both FantasyPros and ESPN has him as the RB16. This is madness, considering that after he had a terrible sophomore season, and still had question marks on if he could ever get more involved in the passing game. Instead, Fournette came in more focused than ever and was a key cog in the Jaguars offense.
Factoring in the positive end of touchdown regression, even if his involvement in the passing game wanes a bit, he should have an increase in end zone visits that more than offsets this.
A deeper dive can reveal some justification for his ranking, as there are a ton of upside running backs for 2020 in fantasy. It is tough to justify taking Fournette over someone like Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, or even Josh Jacobs. But there are other risky backs like Miles Sanders, who is on a Philadelphia Eagles team that loves committee rushers. And then there is Chris Carson, who has as high a ceiling as any runner, but can’t stay healthy and seems to be on a short leash due to fumbling issues.
All things considered, Fournette isn’t a guy that players should look to reach for, but if he still on the board in the third round, it would behoove them to pass up Fournette. As long as he stays healthy, he is a lock for a top-ten finish. If he can keep his targets up and score more touchdowns, he even has top-five potential.
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