Josh Allen is a polarizing quarterback. Since he was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in 2018, there have been people on both sides of the fence debating his ceiling. Granted there have not been many quarterbacks who find success at the pro level who also had sub-par college careers. But Josh Allen has a chance to be the exception to the rule. He made progress in his first two seasons and appears to be headed in the right direction. Allen will need a number of variables to work in his favor for him to win the NFL MVP. Having seasons similar to previous NFL MVPs will certainly help his case.
What Needs to Happen for Josh Allen to Win the MVP?
Team Success
One way to get Allen on the MVP radar is for the team to have success and win in prime-time. The national media will tell you that Allen’s coming-out party was on Thanksgiving in 2019; however, Allen already had better performances in his career. On December 30, 2018 against the Miami Dolphins, Allen accounted for five total touchdowns. He threw for 224 yards and ran for another 95 yards. On November 17, 2019, Allen beat up on the Dolphins again, throwing for three touchdowns and running for another. On both occasions, Allen won AFC Offensive Player of the Week and the Bills won those games. Conversely, the Bills playing on Thanksgiving was their first chance to play in prime-time last season. The national media then started to pay attention to the quarterback.
Allen will need to lead this team to wins on the big stage to be in the MVP conversation. The Kansas City Chiefs play the Bills in Western New York in 2020. That match could certainly be a candidate for a prime-time booking. The Bills also play home to the Seattle Seahawks in 2020. Allen will have opportunities. The Bills can sweep the AFC East and find five or six more wins on their schedule to get to 11 or 12. The kicker here is that the team needs to earn a top playoff seed. The top-dogs in the AFC are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. They should both be vying for the top seed come playoffs but there is no guarantee they will. If the Bills can get to 12 wins that might be good enough for the top seed in the AFC.
Josh Allen Performance
Josh Allen cannot miss games. If he is going to win the MVP he has to remain healthy even though his style of play is conducive to injury. He will have to play well and play often. The team cannot overcome what he brings to the position during the regular season. Not with the schedule the Bills play next season. He will need to have multiple 300-yard passing games even though he hasn’t had one yet. One thing he also hasn’t had is a top-tier wide receiver corps. He has that now with the addition of Stefon Diggs. John Brown had 1,060 receiving yards in 2019. He moves to your number two. And Cole Beasley caught six touchdowns last season. That is quite the trio at wide receiver. They will need to have similar production next season if Allen is going to win the MVP.
Allen threw for 20 touchdowns last season and rushed for nine on the ground. Lamar Jackson ran for seven touchdowns and threw for 36 touchdowns last season, good enough to lead the league. With the addition of Diggs, Allen can easily throw 10 more touchdowns next season especially since defenses will not be able to key in on all three receivers. If Allen does not miss games, with improved offensive weapons, and the division up for grabs, he will throw for 36 touchdowns. Maybe more.
Lamar Jackson 2019 NFL MVP Season
Speaking of Lamar Jackson, let’s take a dive into his MVP season. In 2019, Jackson threw for 3,127 yards, 36 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Allen threw for 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Those numbers are pretty similar. What propelled Jackson to NFL MVP was his rushing numbers and team success. Jackson ran the ball 176 times for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns. Allen was about half that with 109 attempts for 510 yards and nine touchdowns. The biggest difference between the players is that Jackson had more designed run-plays called for him. Many of Allen’s rushing attempts were from scrambling. The rushing stats gave Jackson the edge over Allen but Jackson’s team was also the number one seed in the AFC.
Lamar Jackson won the AFC Offensive Player of the Week five times in 2019. Allen won it only once. With the number one seed locked up, Jackson only missed one game as he sat out week 17 and the Baltimore Ravens finished the season 14-2. The point is Jackson played well, he did not miss games and his team won. Rushing numbers aside, Allen can lead the Bills to this type of season in 2020.
Patrick Mahomes 2018 NFL MVP Season
Patrick Mahomes is a different animal. Comparing his game to Allen’s is somewhat disrespectful. However, they are in the same league and Mahomes had the luxury of sitting behind Alex Smith before finally starting a game as a rookie in week 17. Josh Allen did not. Not with Nathan Peterman as the starting quarterback. In 2018 Patrick Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. That is more of your traditional quarterback MVP type season. Still, 50 passing touchdowns is a lot. That’s a tall order for a player like Allen, but Mahomes was throwing to an elite wide receiver corps. Kansas City finished the regular season as the number one seed in the AFC at 12-4 and Mahomes did not miss a game. Mahomes’ 2018 campaign fits the criteria for league MVP; exceptional individual performance, durability and team success. Allen is capable of improving his passing touchdown total and having similar success to Mahomes.
Cam Newton 2015 NFL MVP Season
Cam Newton had a season that Allen could replicate in 2020. Newton was not at the top of many passing statistics nor did he have Lamar Jackson-type rushing numbers. He did it by leading his team to a 15-win regular season. Many will tell you that the Carolina Panthers defense had a lot to do with that. Newton had a 59 completion percentage in 2015. That was good for 27th in the league. In 2019, Allen’s completion percentage was 58.9, ranking dead last in the league. Newton threw for 3,837 yards his MVP season ranking 16th and his 35 passing touchdowns was good for fifth in the league. Those numbers do not often win the MVP award, especially when Drew Brees throws for 4,870 yards and Philip Rivers throws for 4,792 yards.
Cam Newton ranked 16th in 2015 in passing yards. However, he still won the MVP largely due to his team’s success. He also did not miss any games in 2015 to round out the MVP criteria. The Carolina Panthers, who coincidentally had Sean McDermott coordinating their defense in 2015, went on to play in Super Bowl 50. Newton’s 2015 MVP type season is the most likely shot Allen has at winning the award so long as he stays healthy, plays well, and his team wins games.
There is a path for Josh Allen to win the NFL MVP in 2020. The most likely scenario is the Bills finish 12-4 as the number one seed in the AFC. and Allen throws for about 4,000 yards and 37 touchdowns. He would also have to play well in prime-time and big games and he has to add about 7-800 yards rushing. Sure, Mahomes and Jackson are not going anywhere but there is no guarantee they both will be in the MVP conversation in 2020. Cam Newton won the award in a league with quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees; quarterbacks known for putting up passing numbers.
The stars may have to align but the perfect storm does not make this possibility too far off.
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