For the third straight year, the New Orleans Saints are playoff-bound. While the path to the Super Bowl won’t be easy as the third seed in the NFC, New Orleans boasts one of the most well-rounded squads in the postseason. There are plenty of reasons to believe they can go on another deep playoff run.
Here’s how the Saints stack up against the rest of the NFC playoff field.
2019 New Orleans Saints Playoff Preview
Saints Playoff Strengths
Offense Heating up at Perfect Time
The biggest storyline of the Saints season was obviously Drew Brees missing five starts due to a thumb injury. But he wasn’t the only major offensive weapon to miss time. Alvin Kamara played through lingering injuries for much of the season and Jared Cook missed two games.
Additionally, wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith missed five games, and Keith Kirkwood and Austin Carr spent most of the season on injured reserve. Three starting offensive linemen missed time as well.
Fortunately, the Saints offense has gotten much healthier in recent weeks and it’s showing. Since Week 11, New Orleans is averaging 36.2 points per game, including 40 points per game over the last four weeks. They also have a 3 percent higher offensive success rate than any other team since Week 11, per Sharp Football Stats.
This late-season surge helped the Saints finish the season with the league’s highest offensive success rate of 53 percent. That includes a league-leading 53 percent success rate on passes and a third-ranked 54 percent success rate on runs.
This is a stark contrast from the last two seasons, when the Saints offense played at a high level for much of the year but sputtered in December. That trend followed New Orleans into the postseason too. The unit scored just 24 points or less in three of their four playoff games over the last two years.
Other NFC playoff offenses have not been so fortunate down the stretch. The San Francisco 49ers are the only other team to average over 30 points per game (32.5) over the last four weeks. The Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and Minnesota Vikings all averaged less than 23 points per game during this span.
If the Saints offense can stay hot, they’ll be the last team anyone will want to face.
Run Defense
While this unit isn’t currently as dominant as it’s been for most of the last two seasons, the Saints run defense is still one of the league’s best. New Orleans finished the season ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed (91.3 per game) and fifth in success rate allowed on runs (43 percent). Additionally, the Saints gave up just 38 runs of 10 yards or more, the seventh lowest total in the NFL.
This bodes well for playoff football because teams often lean on their run game in cold weather and when trying to close games out. New Orleans also has a significant advantage in this area when compared to the rest of the NFC playoff field.
While the Philadelphia Eagles are right behind the Saints with 44% success rate allowed on runs, the other four teams all rank 20th or worst in this category, including the 30th-ranked Vikings and 32nd-ranked Packers.
As previously mentioned, the Saints run defense has taken a step back in recent weeks. They yielded 162 rushing yards to the 49ers in week 13 and gave up 149 yards to the Tennessee Titans two weeks later.
These performances coincided with a series of defensive injuries. Linebackers A.J. Klein and Kiko Alonso were injured prior to the San Francisco game and defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins both left that game with injuries.
Although Davenport and Rankins are now on injured reserve, Klein and Alonso are healthy again. Hopefully, their return will help the defense regain its dominance against the run.
Special Teams
Like run defense, special teams play becomes even more important in the postseason, and the Saints have one of the league’s best special teams trios in kicker Wil Lutz, punter Thomas Morstead, and returner Deonte Harris. Lutz and Harris were both 2019 Pro Bowl selections and Morstead, a 10-year veteran is still one of the league’s best punters.
Lutz finished the season as the NFC’s highest-scoring player with 144 points and nailed 88.9 percent of his 36 field goal attempts. He also missed just one of his 49 extra-point attempts. Vikings kicker Dan Bailey and Packers kicker Mason Crosby both made a higher percentage of field goals than Lutz, but both attempted less than 30 kicks.
The other three NFC kickers didn’t fare as well, with each hitting less than 85 percent of their field goals. This includes the 49ers Robbie Gould, who made just 74.2 percent of his attempts and missed all four of his attempts of 50 yards or more.
Harris could provide a momentum-shifting boost for New Orleans at some point in the postseason if he can sustain his regular-season success. He finished the season ranked top four in both kick return average and punt return average and returned one punt for a touchdown.
The 49ers Richie James is the only other playoff-bound NFC return specialist who has had notable success. James has the league’s eighth-best punt return average and the 12th-best kick return average.
Saints Playoff Weaknesses
Lack of Wide Receiver Talent
Obviously Michael Thomas, the new single-season receptions record holder (among other records) is one of the league’s best receivers. Apart from him though, the Saints have an inconsistent second-year receiver in Smith, and an aging deep threat in Ted Ginn. These two combined for just 48 catches, 655 yards, and seven touchdowns.
The lack of talent here is a big reason why New Orleans finished the season ranked 16th in explosive pass plays despite boasting the league’s second-most efficient passing attack.
This was a major need entering the last off-season. It was easily their biggest concern when the season began, and it remains just that. To the Saints credit, they have tried to bolster this position. They attempted trades for A.J. Green and Emmanuel Sanders among others and even gave controversial free agent Antonio Brown a workout. Since none of these pursuits panned out, the Saints are stuck with what they have.
What they do have isn’t bad. Thomas is the league’s most unstoppable receiver right now. Kamara hasn’t been as potent in the passing game but he still caught 81 passes this year. Also, the Saints now have something they didn’t last season: a third playmaker in the passing game in the form of Jared Cook.
Despite a slow start to the season and missing two games due to injury, Cook hauled in 43 receptions for 705 yards and nine touchdowns. Cook has not only been an excellent red-zone target. He’s brought some explosiveness back to the Saints passing game with a career-high 16.4 yards per catch. This has greatly helped offset the Saints shortcomings at wide receiver.
While a true deep threat is still missing from this offense, they will likely do just fine with the trio of Thomas, Kamara, and Cook.
History of Late-Game Post-Season Collapses
2010: Marshawn Lynch
2011: Alex Smith/Vernon Davis
2017: Case Keenum/Stefon Diggs
2018: Greg Zuerlein
This is truly the most significant variable for the Saints in January: Can they close out games they are poised to win? In each of the contests above, New Orleans was good enough to win but let victory slip away in the closing minutes. This year, they are certainly good enough to beat any of the other NFC contenders.
The 2018 elimination obviously wasn’t purely due to a late-game collapse. The missed pass-interference call seen and heard around the world would have changed everything if called. However, New Orleans allowed the Rams to push the game into overtime with a field goal on the ensuing drive. The Saints won the overtime coin toss but promptly threw an interception. The Rams then easily moved into position for the game-winning field goal.
For the sake of an utterly traumatized Saints fanbase, they cannot let this happen again. At this point, if New Orleans is going to get eliminated from this year’s bracket, they might as well get blown out early so that fans change the channel well before the fourth quarter.
Players (And One Coach) Who Need to Step up
Dennis Allen
On that note, it’s up to Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen to prevent another crippling late-game collapse. To his credit, Allen has helped transform the Saints defense from one of the worst units in NFL history in 2015 into a formidable squad. However, those results haven’t quite translated into the postseason.
We saw an outstanding effort from Allen’s defense last year when they held Los Angeles scoreless in the fourth quarter. However, the Rams eventually found cracks in the Saints armor and finished the game with 26 points.
In regards to preventing late-game collapses, perhaps Allen should have his unit spend extra time on prevent defense in practice. If not this, Allen needs to find some way to ensure his defense is ready for that last drive if it comes down to that.
Alvin Kamara
It’s not Kamara’s fault that he spent most of the season dealing with injuries. With that said, Kamara needs to make up for lost time now that he’s healthy and put forth a strong effort in the postseason.
Trey Hendrickson
If there’s one injury that could hold the Saints back, it’s the season-ending foot injury suffered by edge defender Marcus Davenport. The 2018 first-round pick was putting together an excellent sophomore season and had recorded three sacks in his previous two games prior to the injury.
While the Saints have opted to rotate several players in at right defensive end, it’s primarily up to Trey Hendrickson to fill the void. He had a monstrous preseason and was expected to elevate his play this year. Aside from a two-sack performance in week one though, Hendrickson has mostly played the same quiet role he did in his first two years.
Hendrickson will never be Davenport. There’s a reason why the Saints spent a late third-round pick on the former and two first-round picks on the latter. However, Hendrickson has a big upside and plays with great energy. If he plays up to his potential in the playoffs, the loss of Davenport won’t seem so big.
Bottom Line
It would be a real shame if Brees never at least reaches another Super Bowl. No one is certain whether or not this is his last season, but Brees says he’s taking it one season at time. Maybe he retires in the coming months. Or perhaps he sticks it out until he’s 45, the goal he once set for himself years ago.
On that note, what’s more likely to push Brees into retirement this year: A Super Bowl win, or another crushing, last-minute playoff defeat? At this point, I’m leaning towards the latter.
The Saints could still be relatively successful in the coming years without Brees thanks to a good roster and coaching staff. However, few assets give you a better chance to win a championship than a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback. Every Saints player, coach, and staff member needs to keep this in mind over the next month.
The time to get the second ring is now. A better chance may never come for this organization.
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