It’s fantasy football playoff time for much of the world. This means every move and decision carries more weight and will thus drive you crazy. For Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny owners, this is definitely the case. Chris Carson, despite his fumbling woes, has been a firmly entrenched RB1 for the entire season. Rashaad Penny on the other hand, due to the play of Carson and some injury concerns, has been little more than a flex consideration at best. Now as the fantasy football playoffs begin it looks like the Seattle Seahawks backfield is in a timeshare situation. So what does that mean for fantasy owners? How should this impact your lineup and thought process? Let’s take a look.
The Timeshare: Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny
Chris Carson is fifth in the NFL in carries at this moment with 231. Rashaad Penny has 65. As a whole, Carson has been one of the top backs to own this season. However, the dilemma for fantasy owners stems from the most recent usage of these two running backs. Penny has 29 carries in the last two games and 33 touches overall. Carson has 31 carries and 36 touches overall in that same span. And because neither of these two games were blowouts, there are no game script explanations to provide clarity. While there is cause for concern for Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny owners, the outlook for these two is both good and bad.
The Bad
Running back timeshares are the worst thing in fantasy football. You never know who will the “the guy” on any given day. Or who will be the one to vulture touchdowns from one game to the next. It’s scary. Adding to the scariness of this particular situation is the back story for both running backs.
Rashaad Penny was a first-round pick in the 2018 NFL draft. It was a surprise pick and one that you’d think Seattle would eventually like to legitimize. Having Penny succeed would be a nice feather in the cap for the front office and coaching staff.
Carson was a seventh-round pick in the 2017 NFL draft. He embodies what the Seahawks want in their football team. He’s tough, he’s physical, he runs hard, and he’s a grinder. Plus, head coach Pete Carroll loves him and has openly supported him time and time again.
All of this adds up to make a murky situation even murkier. Both running backs are basically at a dead-even split in touches over the past two weeks. That’s not something you want to hear come fantasy playoffs time. Both running backs have scored touchdowns the past two weeks. Carson may have even intentionally subbed himself out of an easy touchdown so that Penny could get the score this past Monday night. Awesome in real life. Awful in fantasy. Fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and removing variables. You’re not getting that in the Seattle backfield right now.
The Good
The Seattle Seahawks are a running football team. Only two teams in the NFL run the ball more than they do. Why is this relevant? Because when you’re a team that wants to run the ball and does run the ball, that means your offense could potentially support two running backs from a fantasy perspective. The Seahawks run the ball 31.1 times per game. Even at worst a 50-50 timeshare for Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny would mean about 15 carries for each. Not bad. And that doesn’t even factor in any receptions each back could get.
Also falling into the good news category is the schedule the Seahawks have coming up. In order, they play the Los Angeles Rams, Carolina Panthers, and Arizona Cardinals. All three of those teams give up over 100 yards per game on the ground. With the Panthers being especially bad, giving up almost 140 yards per game rushing. Arizona isn’t great either as they give up almost 120 yards per game rushing.
So, even though it appears a timeshare has formed between Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, their team and schedule situation might be enough to support both of them. A high volume running attack, going up against teams that are bad against the run? That sounds like it could work. Or at least work enough to keep Carson in your lineup, and make Penny more than just a flyer.
What It All Means for Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny in Fantasy Football
This situation isn’t ideal, but it’s not the end of the world. While being in a timeshare won’t give any owners peace of mind or certainty, this timeshare could work for both backs due to the Seahawks offensive philosophy and schedule. The key here is expectations. I would still rather have Carson than Penny and I expect Carson to remain the starter. But Carson is now more of an RB2 than the RB1 he was before. Penny is now a viable flex option and based on matchup or game flow could put up RB2 numbers. Also if you have Chris Carson, you must have Rashaad Penny rostered. Either one of these guys going down means big-time work for the other. Tis the season for handcuffs.
