The Green Bay Packers suffered their worst loss of the season in Week 11 against the San Francisco 49ers. A game that was billed as a possible NFC Championship preview — and just as important, the road to obtaining the number one seed.
However, a lot has changed in the two weeks since their meeting.
The Packers (9-3) bounced back with a road victory over the New York Giants, 31-13, to get back into the win column. Meanwhile, the 49ers suffered a loss on the road against the Baltimore Ravens to drop them to 10-2.
Both Green Bay’s win and San Francisco’s loss have changed the landscape of the NFC with four weeks remaining in the season.
For Green Bay, their nine wins have kept them in striking distance at a possible top-seed and a much-needed first-round bye. However, it’s much more drastic for the 49ers as a loss combined with a Seattle Seahawks win over the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football has dropped them to the five-seed.
Currently, as it stands ahead of Week 14, the New Orleans Saints are now the top seed while Seattle currently holds the number two seed with both teams at 10-2.
So, how do the Packers get ahold of one the top seeds?
The Easiest Road
The easiest path for the Packers is to win their final four games — vs. Washington Redskins, vs Chicago Bears, at Minnesota Vikings, at Detroit Lions — which would give them a record of 13-3.
However, should the Packers drop any of their four remaining games, then their path becomes convoluted. The biggest concern would be falling out of the NFC North division lead to Minnesota should they lose two games in a four-week span.
Currently, Green Bay leads Minnesota by one game and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against them. Even if the Packers lose to their NFC North rivals in three weeks, they would still be alive for the division crown with a win over the Lions in the season finale.
What If They Lose a Game or Two?
But, for argument’s sake, let’s say they do win the NFC North but with a 12-4 record at the end. Then, while not impossible, it would make securing one of the top seeds extremely hard.
Green Bay would need Seattle to win the NFC West over the 49ers due to their loss against them. Should the Packers end up with the same record as the 49ers as division winners, then the tiebreaker goes to San Francisco.
Fortunately for Green Bay, they have a golden opportunity in Week 14 to jump back into one of the top two seeds.
The 49ers will travel to the Saints in a crucial game that’ll no doubt affect seeding even more. Packers fans should actually cheer for the 49ers to win this game as a combined win over the lowly Redskins would put Green Bay back into the number two slot.
While a Seattle loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football would also benefit Green Bay, it won’t be enough to give them the top seed outright. They’ll need another Seattle victory over the 49ers in Week 17.
The secondary thing to note in possible seeding is the number of conference wins a team has. Green Bay (6-2), New Orleans (8-2), San Francisco (7-1) and Seattle (7-1) all have top marks in conference wins.
Thus making it important that Green Bay’s 10-2 conference record would overtake the other three teams once Week 17 concludes.
Playoff seeding is never easy to pinpoint as a number of factors can affect who ends up where. The path is still there for Green Bay in these final four weeks, but they’ll need some help along the way.
Can Aaron Rodgers and company get a coveted first-round bye? Time will tell.
