The New Orleans Saints running backs as a group have yet to reach their full potential this season. While the Saints offense has exceeded 100 rushing yards in all but three games, they currently rank 17th in both rushing yards per game (107.5) and yards per carry (4.3). Most observers likely expected more from a dynamic Saints backfield that boasts Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.
It’s also a mystery why the Saints haven’t run more frequently. They lead the NFL with a 55 percent success rate on run plays per Sharp Football Stats, yet they average a 17th-ranked 25.1 rushing attempts per game.
Running just 11 times two weeks ago against the Atlanta Falcons proved to be disastrous. The offense scored only nine points and the pass-heavy approach resulted in six Falcons sacks. Last week, New Orleans called 26 designed run plays against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the offense functioned in a much healthier way, leading to a 34-17 win.
This Sunday, the Saints face the Carolina Panthers who offer one of the league’s worst run defenses. New Orleans must capitalize on this weakness and not get locked into a pass-heavy approach like they did against Atlanta.
New Orleans Saints Running Backs Should Thrive Against Carolina
Overview of Panthers Run Defense
Carolina has consistently been gashed by their opponents in the run game. The Panthers have allowed 120 or more rushing yards in all but two games this year. The two exceptions were games against the Falcons and Buccaneers, who rank near the bottom of the league in both rushing yards per game and yards per carry. Their worst performance came in week eight when they surrendered 232 rushing yards to the San Francisco 49ers.
Overall, Carolina has allowed a 27th-ranked 128.4 rushing yards per game and 29th-ranked 4.9 yards per carry. When removing quarterback and wide receiver runs from the equation, the story is the same. Carolina has yielded a 52 percent success rate on run plays by running backs, the fifth-worst figure in the league.
A big reason for the Panthers futility against the run has to do with their underperforming interior defensive line. Carolina boasts two big-name defensive tackles in Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe, and while both players have excelled in the pass rush with four sacks apiece, they’re routinely getting dominated in the run game.
Carolina has allowed 30 runs of 10 yards or more, and 16 of them have come between the tackles. For comparison, the Saints have allowed 16 runs of 10 or more yards, and only two have been between the tackles. This benefits the Saints run game, which has had 13 of its 21 runs of 10 or more yards occur between the tackles.
While the Saints running backs as a group have struggled to find rhythm at times, it would be surprising if they don’t find success against this defense.
Making Life Easier on the Saints Passing Game
As was mentioned previously, Atlanta sacked Saints quarterback Drew Brees six times two weeks ago. While poor Saints offensive line health certainly helped Atlanta accomplish this, calling 52 pass plays definitely made it easier for them. New Orleans can’t lose their balance like this to Carolina, who boast one of the league’s best pass rushes.
While Carolina’s pass defense ranks near the middle of the league in most categories, they have pressured opposing quarterbacks on a 12-best 24.7 percent of pass plays. They’ve accomplished this despite blitzing on 24.2 percent of pass plays, the 10th lowest average in the league. Carolina has allowed the fifth-lowest passer rating of any team this season (81.0) and this ability to get pressure without frequent blitzing is a big reason why.
The Panthers are also tied with San Francisco for the most sacks league-wide with 39. Their sack rate of 9.75 percent ranks third, and they’ve impressively managed to get more sacks on the road than at home. Their road sack rate of 12.5 percent leads the NFL, and they average a full sack (5.2 per road game) more than any other team in away games.
Executing a successful run game will not only give Carolina fewer opportunities to disrupt pass plays and get sacks. It will also make it riskier for the Panthers to focus on rushing the passer. Carolina has recorded four or more sacks in four games. In each of those games, their opponent ran less than 23 times. In their other six games, where Panthers opponents have run 26 or more times, Carolina averages 2.3 sacks per game.
Use Play Action!
For whatever reason, New Orleans has used play-action on just 47 pass plays (12.4 percent), the lowest figure in the league. For context, the Kansas City Chiefs highly successful passing game leads the NFL with 113 play-action passes, amounting to more than one-fourth of their pass attempts.
It’s not like the Saints have been unsuccessful when using play-action. They average 9.2 yards per attempt on play-action pass plays compared to the Chiefs 8.3 yard average on such plays. Like most teams, the Saints play-action passing average is well above their overall passing average, which is currently a 16th-ranked 7.4 yards per attempt.
Considering how dangerous the Panthers pass rush is, this week would be a good time for New Orleans to start using play-action more frequently. This will make it harder for defenders to commit to a run or pass and should eventually force the Panthers front seven to play less aggressively. This effect benefits both the Saints run and passing games.
Further Thoughts
While the Saints haven’t ranked among the most productive rushing offenses this year, they’ve proven they can still have big games on the ground. They put up 148 rushing yards against the Houston Texans and gained 151 rushing yards on an excellent Chicago Bears run defense. Let’s also not forget that New Orleans finished top-10 in rushing yards in both 2017 and 2018.
Murray certainly went through an adjustment period during the first half of the season but seemed to grow more comfortable throughout October. Kamara had a great start to the season before an ankle injury limited him and eventually kept him out of two games.
With both Saints running backs now available and Murray acclimated, the Panthers present a great opportunity for the Saints run game to have its best performance of the season.
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