Aaron Jones has been one of the bigger draft values in fantasy football this season. So far, he has demolished his third-round ADP, clocking in as a top-five running back through the first part of the season. Jones has had one monster game, where he scored four touchdowns and put up 150 yards from scrimmage.
But he also has a few games with under 50 yards from scrimmage. In addition, he has Jamaal Williams breathing down his back. Comparing his remaining schedule to other running backs and looking at Aaron Jones’ fantasy outlook, it might be time to sell Jones high in fantasy football.
Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Outlook: It’s Time to Sell
A Few Monster Games
Through the first six games, Jones was sitting pretty as the RB5 in half-point PPR leagues. Coming into Week 6, he had 117.5 points. However, his numbers are inflated by one huge game, in Week 5, when he had 107 yards and four touchdowns.
His other big game also happens to be his only other 100-yard rushing game of the season. That was in Week 2 when he took on the Minnesota Vikings and had 116 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.
Jones does have value in his versatility. In terms of yards from scrimmage, Jones only has two games all season with less than four receptions. This helps his floor, with Jones only having two games this season with less than ten points in fantasy.
A Few Mediocre Games
But breaking down Jones’ numbers further shows some extreme volatility in his season-long numbers. Jones only has two 100-yard rushing games all season. Oddly enough, those are also the only games where he has more than 50 rushing yards in a game.
Jones has also been saved by scoring touchdowns a few weeks this season. For example, in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos, Jones plodded to a measly 19 yards on ten carries. However, he padded his fantasy stats with two touchdowns. Overall, Jones has 399 yards on the ground, but his eight touchdowns are making him look a lot better than he really is.
Competing with Jamaal Williams
A case study of this was his prime time matchup against the Detroit Lions. Jones fumbled the football early in the game. Then, he later dropped a wide-open touchdown. This put Jones in the doghouse, as he lost touches to Williams for the rest of the game.
And Williams made the most of his opportunities, running for 104 yards on 14 carries. He also caught a touchdown, something Jones couldn’t do that game. Admittedly, Jones is overall the better player, and will usually get the bulk of the carries. But, Williams is constantly breathing down his back, and will always be a threat to take away touchdowns and carries from Jones.
Outlook versus Other Backs
When it comes down to it, Jones is a top-ten option from week-to-week. But, his floor is a bit lower than many top-ten backs. If there was ever a time to sell him high, it would be now. A few options come to mind, especially when looking at schedules moving forward.
Easiest Remaining RB Schedules
Vikings (Dalvin Cook)
Raiders (Josh Jacobs)
Steelers (James Conner)
Jets (Le'Veon Bell)
Giants (Saquon Barkley)— Zach Brunner (@FantasyFlurry) October 19, 2019
Looking at the top five easiest schedules for running backs, two stand out: Le’Veon Bell and Josh Jacobs. These could be two backs fantasy owners may be able to secure a straight up trade for Jones.
Bell has had to mainly play with a third-string quarterback this sesaon. Week 1, when he had his starting quarterback, Sam Darnold, he racked up 20.2 points. In Darnold’s first game back with Darnold, he wasn’t overly impressive, but at least scored his first rushing touchdown of the season.
But with games against teams like the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals coming up, he could easily start heating up to a top-five finish. A one-for-one deal of Bell for Jones is well worth the risk.
Jacobs is also a rising star who still has some buy-low value due to his small sample size. He now has over 120 rushing yards in his last two games. The only game he has under 79 yards on the ground was Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings. However, it is worth noting that he only saw ten carries because he had lost ten pounds from the flu.
With Jones totaling so many more points than Jacobs at this point in the year, team owners may be able to get Jacobs and another player if they offer Jones up. It is worth a try and could end up being a jackpot at the end of the year.
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