The Buffalo Bills have played five games and own an impressive 4-1 record. In three of their four victories, quarterback Josh Allen has lead them to victory on game-winning fourth-quarter drives. In those same victories, as well as the other games, he’s made crucial mistakes to the detriment of his team. So what do the Bills have in their second-year quarterback? At this point in his career, Allen’s Jekyll and Hyde performances have raised more questions than answers. By putting Josh Allen’s play into perspective, it begins to paint the picture of the Bills trigger man.
Josh Allen and How to Feel About Him
Through his first two seasons in the NFL Josh Allen has given Bills fans amazing highlights and amazing sadness. He’s capable of greatness and making something out of nothing. He’s also capable of making you curse the day he was born. Lost in all the hyperbole, is that Josh Allen just completed his 16th game in the NFL with the win vs Tennessee Titans here in 2019. His record in his first 16 games is a solid 9-7. He may be in his second year, but from a game experience standpoint, he just finished his rookie year. Allen is still growing and learning as a quarterback and with growth comes growing pains. His highlight-reel moments glossed over the fact that he was a project coming out of college.
Still Just A Pup
Due to injury and the coaching staff not wanting to feed him to the wolves to start the season, Josh Allen started 11 games in 2018. That’s 11 games, with limited weaponry on offense and one of the worst offensive lines in football. Any success the Bills offense had in 2018 had Allen at the center of it. However the baptism by fire that was Josh Allen’s rookie year still left room for progression in his game.
Being forced to make plays and fend for himself created bad habits for Allen and nurtured some that already existed. Yes, he was able to learn on the fly and develop to a degree. But the conditions Allen was subjected to during his rookie year were less than ideal for the development he needed.
Allen needed work on reading NFL defenses. He needed to learn how to make progressions in his reads and take what the defenses gave him. That’s hard to do when your line can’t block anyone to give you time. That’s also hard to do when you don’t have anyone that can catch the ball and continue drives for you. Allen set rushing records for a quarterback last year not by design, but out of survival. Doing so stunted his progression in the needed areas of his game and caused him to develop a style of play that isn’t sustainable for an NFL quarterback. Luckily, Allen still has plenty of time to learn.
Growing Pains
Hero ball does not work consistently in the NFL. I don’t care who you are, or what you can do. It does not work consistently in the NFL. Josh Allen is learning that the hard way this season. Several times this year Allen has run around and forced a ball into traffic that he didn’t need to. Or threw across his body when he didn’t have to. Sometimes it worked last year. I get it. But Allen needs to stop doing it. And if we use his improvement in other areas of his game as an indication, he will.
Josh Allen has a completion percentage of 62.6% this year. Not bad for a guy who had a completion percentage of 52.81% last year and who some believed would never be accurate. Allen has improved this year in taking what the defense gives him and functioning in the offense to jab defenses instead of always trying to land haymakers. That shows maturity and practicality in his game. Big time positives for a second-year quarterback.
Let’s also not forget the clutch fourth-quarter drives he’s orchestrated this season. Showing up when needed most, when the pressure is highest, and especially after you’ve made mistakes, is huge. People talk about Allen’s physical tools, but they often overlook his leadership and resolve. Josh Allen is learning, he is making progress. But he’s still at a point where he may take two steps backward after taking one step forward. And then make three steps forward and take one step back. It can be painful, but it’s part of the process.
He Is Who We Thought He Was
For all intents and purposes, Josh Allen was a project coming out of college. He looked like a prototypical quarterback with ideal physical measurements but lacked polish and quality play when facing quality competition. Projects need time to develop, time to refine, and time to simmer and learn. Because of the exciting plays and success Josh Allen had as a rookie, this got overlooked.
Going into the 2018 NFL Draft, I thought Josh Allen had the highest ceiling of all the quarterback prospects. I also thought that he had the lowest floor. If his high IQ and physical tools could mesh and mitigate the hero ball craziness and inaccuracy he exhibited at times, I thought he could be great. If it couldn’t, he could be awful to mediocre. I still think that. Regardless, it’s not fair to alter Allen’s timeline just because of the early success he had or the early success other young quarterbacks have had.
No two quarterbacks are in the same situation. This is Allen’s second year, but it’s his first working with an actual non-dumpster fire of an offense. Josh Allen is still a project quarterback and this year he’s working with new receivers and a new offensive line. And he’s 4-1. Give him some time. In many ways, he’s ahead of schedule and has exceeded expectations. Plus, the defense is good enough to shoulder the load for a bit.
What It All Means For Josh Allen
Josh Allen had a far better rookie year than he was given credit for. And while he has definitely made some foolish mistakes this year, in many ways he has continued along on his upward trajectory. His up-and-down play is frustrating but often comes with the territory of a second-year quarterback in the NFL. With the Bills looking to make a run at the playoffs this year, Allen’s play will continue to be put under a microscope. As that happens, it’s important to know how to feel and respond accordingly.
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