The New England Patriots have improved to 3-0 following their 30-14 beatdown of the New York Jets last Sunday. The game featured a strong passing effort from the Patriots and resulted in quarterback Tom Brady moving past New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees for the second-most passing touchdowns in NFL history. However, the strength of New England’s passing attack has highlighted the struggles of second-year first-round pick, Sony Michel, along with their running game as a whole.
Sony Michel‘s Lack of Production
The former Georgia ball carrier struggled early last season but improved as the year went on and concluded his rookie campaign with an impressive postseason performance. Listed at 215 pounds, Michel’s skill set is centered around a physical, one cut downhill running style that gave him success in last season’s playoff run. Despite Michel’s rookie success, it was unclear at the time whether Michel was a legitimate runner, or if his success was simply a product of the Patriots offensive line. In 2018, Pro Football Focus ranked New England’s offensive line as the fourth-best group in the league. [https://www.pff.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-after-week-17]
Unfortunately, New England’s offensive line group has gone through major changes since last season. The team lost starting left tackle, Trent Brown, to free agency as well as starting center, David Andrews, to injured reserve with blood clots. In addition, Brown’s replacement, Isaiah Wynn, has been placed on injured reserve with a toe injury and it is still unclear as to if the second-year first-round pick will return this season. The shakeups along the line have resulted in a slight drop in play from the unit and through extension, Michel. New England still has one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but they certainly have not been among the elite units this season. As a result, a one-cut runner like Michel, who does not thrive when forced to be elusive and create his own holes, has struggled.
Through three games, Michel has looked slow, indecisive when choosing holes, and weak when tasked with breaking shoestring tackles. The former 32nd overall pick has tallied just 110 yards on 45 carries with a horrendous 2.44 yards per attempt. Contrastingly, fellow running back, Rex Burkhead, has thrived while racking up 112 yards on just 24 carries for an average of 4.66 yards per attempt. Burkhead offers a different skill set than Michel and while both backs are listed at 215 pounds, Burkhead is far more agile with an ability to create his own space. Until Michel can improve his quickness and vision, New England should allocate more handoffs to Burkhead as his skill set better suits the play of this offensive line.
Shotgun Heavy Offense
The combination of Michel’s struggles and the team’s lack of a true tight end has created a heavy dependence on spread formations from New England. Last Sunday’s game highlighted this theme as the Patriots lined up in shotgun formations for 68 percent of their offensive snaps. From the recent past, we have grown accustomed to seeing the Patriots frequently utilize 12, 21 and 22 personnel formations. Personnel packages where the 10s place of the number represents the amount of running backs while the ones place represents the number of tight ends within the formation. These offensive alignments are designed to heavily feature a strong running game complemented by talented tight ends who can be both effective in the blocking as well as the passing game. However, the failure to replace Rob Gronkowski this off-season has resulted in New England utilizing less of those formations and much more shotgun alignments which often feature at least three wide receivers.
While this change in offensive concepts has led to massive amounts of points scored, last Sunday was the first time this season we witnessed a consequence of this change. Increased snaps from the receiving corps play a role in the multitude of injuries Patriots wideouts suffered on Sunday. Star wideout and perhaps the most important skill player on this offense, Julian Edelman, was seen clutching his ribcage area as he exited the game early. Despite not returning to play with what the team diagnosed as a “chest” injury, it has been widely reported that the injury is not serious and Edelman should be ready to roll for week four. Likewise, receiver Josh Gordon was very slow to get up in the second quarter after he landed hard on his hip coming down from a jump ball attempt. In addition, Gordon later suffered a finger injury while blocking a Jets cornerback and had to come out for a few plays. Neither of Gordon’s injuries are considered serious, but with the team moving on from Antonio Brown and having no effective tight ends, New England cannot afford to lose any pass-catching bodies for an extended period of time.
Offensive Reinforcements
The good news for the Patriots is that in spite of key receivers getting banged up, they will be adding tight end Ben Watson and N’Keal Harry to the mix relatively soon. Watson, a 14-year veteran who spent six of those seasons in a Patriots uniform, is scheduled to be added back to the team after serving his four-game suspension. The experienced pro is no stranger to New England’s offense or how Brady wants his pass catchers to read and react to defenses. While Watson is 38 years of age, he will be featured within this offense and will allow for the Patriots to utilize more tight end personnel packages.
Harry is in a different situation from Watson. The rookie first-round pick was placed on injured reserve with a mild ankle and hamstring issue to start the season, but the wideout will be eligible to return following Week Eight. Harry, a 6’4″, 225-pound playmaker who specializes in winning jump balls and making spectacular catches, will add needed depth to New England’s receiving group. I fully expect Harry to be used frequently in the red zone to post up corners and win back pylon fade routes. Injuries have been and will continue to be an obstacle every NFL team has to overcome but fortunately, the Patriots are arguably the NFL’s best at doing just that.
