Most sportsbooks have had their 2019 NFL team win totals posted for a couple of months now. Some bettors choose to jump on these lines early, while others wait to see how the preseason plays out. Imagine if you jumped on the Colts line early, then heard the news of Andrew Luck’s retirement? All teams have played three preseason games, which is a decent sample size with which to make predictions. Here are my five best bets for team win totals (odds courtesy of Fanduel) for the 2019 NFL season.
2019 NFL Team Win Totals: Best Bets
Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 10.5 wins (+110)
The Kansas City Chiefs finished 12-4 last year and earned the number one seed in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes won the MVP award in his first full season as a starter and is now even more experienced. The Chiefs defense which finished 31st in the league last year added Frank Clark, Emmanuel Ogbah, Tyrann Mathieu, and Darron Lee.
Many would look at an MVP caliber quarterback getting better and the defensive additions to address last year’s weaknesses, and predict the Chiefs should be just as good or better in 2019. However, the schedule appears daunting with not many easy wins to count on. The Chiefs’ two crossover opponents are from arguably the two most balanced divisions: The AFC South and NFC North. Also, one lesson I often remind myself when it comes to betting is there is a reason Las Vegas has all those tall shiny buildings. While the majority thinks over 10.5 wins for Kansas City is a foregone conclusion, I will go against the grain and predict they go 10-6 at best.
Indianapolis Colts: OVER 7 wins (-110)
The thinking for taking the Colts to win over seven games is similar to the thinking that led me to predict Kansas City under their total. The knee-jerk reaction is to say since Andrew Luck retired, the Colts have to be a bad football team. The last time Andrew Luck missed a whole season and Jacoby Brissett was the starter, the Colts finished 4-12. However, the Colts roster has improved considerably in the last two years. They return four of five starters from one of the best offensive lines in the league. They also added firepower on offense with the addition of wide receiver Devin Funchess. It’s also worth noting that six of those 12 losses came by less than one touchdown.
The Indianapolis Colts had Super Bowl aspirations before Luck retired. If the backup quarterback was someone who didn’t have a lot of NFL experience or was relatively new to the team, I would have more caution. However, Jacoby Brissett knows this offense well and has made 17 career starts. An 8-8 record is not too much to ask of a roster this deep and talented.
Minnesota Vikings: OVER 9 wins (-120)
The Minnesota Vikings finished 8-7-1 last year, and that was considered a massive disappointment. Quarterback Kirk Cousins could not find his rhythm in his first year with the team, largely because of the shoddy offensive line performance. Cousins was constantly under pressure last year, and the offense sputtered (20th in the league) as a result. You know Minnesota’s defense will be solid, and there is no reason to think they cannot repeat a year in which they finished fourth in total defense. I expect the Bears to regress, and Green Bay to stumble somewhat in new coach Matt LaFleur’s first season. This will open the door for Minnesota to get back to the playoffs, a place they assumed they would be last year.
Detroit Lions: UNDER 6.5 wins (+110)
My confidence in the Vikings over pick is also a result of the poor year I see the Lions having. I was not so down on the Lions before the preseason, but the injury bug has hit this team hard. In their third preseason game against the Buffalo Bills, starting linebacker Jarrad Davis and starting center Frank Ragnow suffered serious injuries. After evaluation, their injuries were not considered season-ending, but they will miss significant time nonetheless. Add in the fact that the other three teams in the division (Bears, Vikings, Packers) are three of the most talented team in the conference, and getting to seven wins seems awfully difficult.
Atlanta Falcons: OVER 8.5 wins (-140)
If the Detroit Lions can lay claim to the most injured team of the preseason, the Atlanta Falcons might be last year’s winner of “most injured team.” Early on in the season, the Falcons defense suffered devastating season-ending injuries, losing linebacker Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. These injuries proved too difficult to overcome as they stumbled to a 7-9 record. The Falcons are just three years removed from appearing in the Super Bowl, and they still have a tremendous roster. All they need to do is stay healthy. Devonta Freeman is looking for a breakout year as he has the backfield all to himself. Atlanta’s receiving corps is arguably the best and deepest in the league with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohammed Sanu. The Falcons also only play three games outside of a dome this year. If you have followed Matt Ryan’s career, he is significantly better in a dome than outdoors. I look for a healthier defense and always solid offense to carry this team to a minimum of 9 wins.
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