Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb was a player who probably helped a lot of players win their fantasy football leagues in 2018. He was probably either drafted late and stashed on the bench, or grabbed off of the waiver wire mid-season. He was expected to play a minimal role in his first NFL season. Instead, he broke out and showed that he can play at a high level. However, with Kareem Hunt added to the team, his fantasy outlook is unclear, and players might want to look elsewhere in the draft.
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Nick Chubb 2019 Fantasy Football Outlook
A Surprisingly Good 2018
Nick Chubb had a slow start to 2018. Aside from his three-carry, 100-yard game against the Oakland Raiders, Chubb didn’t have more than 25 yards in a game until he took over as the team’s starter in Week Seven. Prior to that, he was relegated to backup duties behind Carlos Hyde.
However, once he secured the starting job, he hit the ground running, only having one game the rest of the season with under 25 yards. Chubb’s second-half surge was enough to give him the RB15 spot in standard leagues. Looking at Week Seven on though, he was the RB8, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game.
At the end of the year, he was looking like he’d be a top-ten back in the league for 2019.
Uncertainty in 2019
But then Kareem Hunt happened. The Browns decided to claim the talented, but troubled back off of waivers, deflating some of the expectations for Chubb coming into 2019. Granted, Hunt is suspended the first half of the year, but who knows what the split will be if the two are both healthy and ready to go after Week Eight.
Because as great as Chubb is, Hunt is even better. Despite appearing in 11 games last season, Hunt was still able to finish as the eighth-highest scoring running back in 2018. He also averaged the third-most points at the position with 18.6. It will be hard to keep him off the field if he is playing at such a high level.
The worst-case scenario is Chubb gets relegated to a similar role he was in when he started the season. This would make him basically unusable. A middle solution would be an even running back by committee. Luckily, Chubb has the leg up by starting off the season without competition for the job. As long as he keeps performing, it just wouldn’t be right to bench him in favor of a new guy.
However, one major advantage that could tilt the scale in favor of Hunt the more the year goes on are his receiving skills. Chubb only managed 149 yards through the air last year. Hunt more than doubled that in his shortened season and compiled 455 yards receiving his rookie year when he started every game. In the end, the Browns might go with the more dynamic back.
Of course, there is always the third option: one of the two gets traded. And it’d probably be Hunt. That’s what anyone drafting Chubb has to be hoping at this point.
High-Risk, High-Reward
All things considered, the one thing that is clear about Chubb is that he will be an elite fantasy back for at least the first half of the year. However, his production for the second half is dangerously murky. Still, he’s looking at an ADP of 21 OVR, or the RB12. Honestly, that is a little steep for a guy who might not be able to be relied on during the fantasy playoffs.
For comparison, he is slotted right after Mike Evans, and before Zach Ertz, Patrick Mahomes, and Keenan Allen. These are all elite players who, barring injury, can be counted on to put up points all year, not just half. Unless fantasy team owners are convinced that a miracle will happen that will let Chubb keep his workload the entire season, they are better off looking elsewhere.
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