First and foremost, I want to say that I do not in any way support the alleged actions of Tyreek Hill. After no criminal action could be taken against Hill, I fully expected him to be suspended at least four games. However, this article is about taking risk and trading for players who have questions surrounding them from a purely fantasy football perspective.
Edit: Adam Schefter broke the news about Hill’s suspension just after publication.
Tyreek Hill: Should You Take a Gamble on Him in Fantasy?
Background Information
I am in a 12-team dynasty league with a bunch of friends from college. The league now covers three time zones across the country and has become one of my favorite parts of fantasy football. The league is entering its third season and we decided to implement a salary cap over the off-season. For the cap, we have implemented a three-year cap exception plan to help everyone adjust to the cap. After finishing second last year and with the cap implementation, I decided I needed to go all-in this year and maximize the cap exception when others in my league were selling.
The Trade
Leading up to our rookie draft, there was no one I was super interested in. From a fantasy perspective, this was not a very deep rookie class. I was very motivated to sell my picks for players, and fortunately for me, that opportunity came knocking at my door very quickly. One of my league mates was looking for picks. In the end, we came to a deal. I received Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, and a 2020 conditional pick. I gave up 2019 picks 2.03, 2.06, 2.10, 2.11, 4.03, and 4.10 along with Mike Williams and Jaylen Samuels. The conditional pick was a protection for the suspension I expected Hill to get. The pick was based on Hill’s production (based on his average scoring the previous two seasons) and ranged from a second to a fourth round pick.
The Risk
The risk here for this trade was in trading six rookie draft picks and two under 25 players for two wide receivers. One of them on the wrong side of 30 and the other with a pending potential suspension. With the impending cap, I decided to go all-in this season and focus on rebuilding next year. With Jones unlikely to be on my roster next year as a cap casualty, I wasn’t worried about his age. He has been a top-five fantasy wide receiver and should be again in 2019. Hill, on the other hand, had a suspension looming over his head. I was able to mitigate that risk with the conditional pick. The key to making big trades like this, especially in dynasty leagues, is to be willing to accept risks and try to find ways to mitigate them.
Here, I took the big risk on Hill and, from a fantasy perspective, it has paid off tremendously. Whether it stays that way is a different story. The investigation is still open. The NFL is not taking any action now but left the door open if any more information comes out. This scenario could likely be drawn out for the rest of the summer and possibly into the season. But for now, it is looking like Tyreek Hill owners have at least some clarity on the situation.
