Football Outsiders‘ SackSEER Likes Atlanta Falcons Draft Pick John Cominsky

Football Outsiders’ statistical system for projecting college edge rushers to the next level, SackSEER, likes John Cominsky, the fourth-round pick by the Atlanta Falcons. SackSEER includes combine measurements and college production. It spits out two projections.

• SackSEER projection projects the number of regular season sacks that a prospect will record in his first five seasons in the NFL.
• SackSEER rating provides a historical percentile rating on the college edge rusher’s prospects for success as compared to the other prospects in SackSEER’s database, irrespective of projected draft position.

For the year 2019, SackSEER really liked obvious players like Brian Burns and Josh Allen. Both are projected to make over 26 sacks in their first five years. But SackSEER also includes late round prospects, so let’s see where fourth-round pick by the Atlanta Falcons ranked.

John Cominsky Grades Favorably in SackSEER Projection

Cominsky is a borderline top 10 edge rusher in this draft class, according to SackSEER projection. The players he compares most closely to all went during the first two days of the draft. Getting the 11th best player at the position as the 18th taken off the board is a steal.

SackSEER Rating: A Top Three prospect?

But Cominksy shines even more when looking at SackSEER rating. The reason for this is that SackSEER projections include the projected round in which a player is likely to be taken. Amassing sacks is easier when you are starting early. Projected first-round draft picks therefore naturally have a higher SackSEER projection. In some sense, Cominsky’s projected 13.7 sacks are deflated because he was projected as a fifth rounder and therefore was unlikely to be a starter.

This will apply to his real situation in Atlanta, where he has three more experienced EDGE players ahead of him on the depth chart. But let’s take a look at his SackSEER rating nevertheless.

When disregarding his small school background which likely led to his draft position, SackSEER likes Cominsky a lot. He is among the best pass rushers in the class. His rating is particularly boosted by his great passes defensed rate. This metric projects future NFL success really well among EDGE players.

SackSEER History

How much can we trust a metric like SackSEER? It’s usually pretty good at projecting players. SackSEER has predicted success for current stars Von Miller, Khalil Mack, and Justin Houston, plus later-round sleepers such as Jared Allen. SackSEER has also identified several high-profile busts, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith, and Jarvis Jones.

Their 2015 edition really liked Vic Beasley at a 95.7 percent rating, and projected him to have 34 sacks through five years. With one year left, Vic has 29.5 sacks, which seems pretty spot on. It also predicted Preston Smith to have more sacks than both Shane Ray and Dante Fowler, even though those two were higher regarded before the draft and went earlier than Smith.

Their 2017 edition was cautious about Takk McKinley due to his poor three-cone, but they still seemed to get right that he was a better prospect than Taco Charlton or Charles Harris who both went in the same range.

Naturally, being a late rounder despite the clear upside does pose a challenge for Cominsky. Teams are usually not overlooking a clear-cut star for so long. I went and looked at other players similar to Cominsky. I was looking for a high SackSEER rating (over 85%) but players that were projected to go later than round two.

SackSEER Sleepers?

While the idea of Cominsky being a great sleeper pick according to SackSEER is intriguing, we have to pump our breaks in expecting too much. The track record of SackSEER sleepers taken after Day 1 is thin. Only Dean Lowry qualifies as a success story.

Falcons EDGE type: The Pass Defender?

While SackSEER likes Cominsky, it did not always like Falcons edge rusher prospects. However, putting together all recent Falcons edge defenders featured in SackSEER reveals a nice footnote. They all are pretty good at the passes defensed rate I already mentioned above.

Jonathan Massaquoi’s P.D. rate has an asterisk though, as explained in the SackSEER 2012 piece: “Passes defensed are much more subjective statistics than sacks and tackles, and it would not be surprising to find that passes defensed were awarded inconsistently from team to team. In fact, the biggest misses for the pass defensed metric both went to Troy: DeMarcus Ware and Osi Umenyiora.”

Considering Thomas Dimitroff also signed Umenyiora in free agency, it is possible that this was always a very important aspect of his evaluation of EDGE players. However, there is a noticeable increase in attention to passes defensed when Dan Quinn became head coach in 2015. Since then they have also added Derrick Shelby as a free agent, whose 0.28 rate ranked him third among the 2012 class. Jack Crawford’s 0.23 rate ranked him fourth in that same class.

Dueling The Cowboys

Having active hands might have been the one aspect that compelled the Falcons to nab Cominsky via trade-up. Maybe P.D. rate is the secret as to why the Falcons jump so often ahead of the Cowboys for EDGE players. Since Rod Marinelli became the defensive line coach for Dallas in 2013, the Cowboys have drafted only two players with a P.D. rate below 0.14. Demarcus Lawrence and Taco Charlton are the exceptions, while the other five draft picks average a 0.21 rate.

Now, remember that the Cowboys settled for Charlton because the Falcons traded up for the 0.36 P.D. rate of Takk. They were also looking at Emmanuel Ogbah at the top of the second round in 2015. He had a 0.23 rate. This all hints towards P.D. rate being a very important measure for both Quinn and Marinelli. This explains why they look at similar players to try to beat each other to the punch.

To sum up: SackSEER likes John Cominsky. And Keeping P.D. rate in mind when evaluating EDGE players seems like a good way to project possible Falcons fits under Dan Quinn.

Embed from Getty Images