After back-to-back losses against the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New England Patriots are looking to end their regular season with back-to-back wins against divisional foes. Despite his lack of consistency throughout the season, Chris Hogan may be the key to keeping the Patriots atop the New York Jets in week 17.
The Stars May Be Aligning for Chris Hogan in Week 17
New York Jets Defensive Outlook
Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson, the Jets top defensive backs, both missed practice on Wednesday. Claiborne is battling injuries to both his shoulder and his ankle, which makes him less likely to appear on the field for the Jets this week. Johnson, however, was reportedly held out of practice for an “in-house matter.”
Todd Bowles says Trumaine Johnson’s absence is an “in-house matter that we’re dealing with.” When asked if he’ll play Sunday, Bowles said “we’ll see.”
Not what you want from a guy you gave five years and $72.5 million to. #Jets
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) December 26, 2018
Recent updates have suggested that Johnson does intend to play on Sunday, despite Todd Bowles‘ non-committal response.
The absence of Claiborne would be a boon for the Patriots. Claiborne has 14 passes defensed and two interceptions this season, putting him in the same conversation as Marlon Humphrey and Janoris Jenkins this season. Buster Skrine would be the most likely candidate to move outside, which sounds like a better scenario than it actually is. According to an off-season article by Gang Green Nation, Skrine is a more than capable outside cornerback, despite what his relegation to nickel corner might imply. Skrine also made an appearance on the Jets injury report this week, but he participated fully in Wednesday’s practice.
A Good Time to Get Hot
The Jets aren’t exactly stifling in terms of receiving defense, despite having a decent squad in the defensive backfield. In their last three games, the Jets secondary allowed Equanimeous St. Brown 94 yards on five targets, DeAndre Hopkins 170 yards on 11 targets and Robert Foster 104 yards on eight targets. It’s worth noting that those three receivers combined for only two incompletions.
The Jets defense is allowing receivers to get hot, and — with the exception of Hopkins — they’re allowing receivers that haven’t been very hot all year to get hot. Taywan Taylor did it to them in week 13. St. Brown and Foster both go on that list.
I’ve been the false prophet of Chris Hogan’s big game time and time again this season. He did have some success in week 12 against the Jets with two catches that both went for 20 or more yards. The Jets have below-average DVOA against receivers both deep-left and deep-right. Gang Green is allowing a 64 percent completion rate to wide receivers deep up the right sideline and eight touchdowns this season anywhere outside the hash to the right.
With Josh Gordon gone, Hogan is the team’s best receiver deep up the sidelines. Given the way that his season has gone, it’s unlikely he sees more than five targets, but those five targets should be significant ones.
Last Word(s) on Week 17
As our own David Latham noted in this week’s gameplan, Sam Darnold is on the upswing as he approaches the end of his rookie season with the Jets. The Patriots are going to want to do their best to keep Darnold and his emergent (but inconsistent) pass-catching duo in Robby Anderson and Christopher Herndon off the field as much as they can. The Patriots secondary should have little trouble limiting Anderson and Herndon enough to provide a modicum of a lead before halftime. Last week, the Patriots bullied the Buffalo Bills on the ground. The ground unit combined for 262 rushing yards and two scores on 43 attempts, and Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead and James White should see an elevated number of touches in this contest as well.
It’ll be easy to chalk Julian Edelman up for a score, a hefty chunk of the team’s target share and somewhere between 50 and 80 receiving yards, especially if Skrine sees most of his snaps on the outside.
But it also makes sense for the Patriots to save their star receiver for the postseason. The Patriots no longer have Danny Amendola to chew up the playoffs in the slot, which means that Edelman will have to step up in his place. Limiting snaps for Edelman and the injury-prone Rob Gronkowski is a necessary reality for this game even with the first-round bye still in the playoff picture. When Edelman comes off the field, keep an eye on Phillip Dorsett as the sure-handed next-man-up in the short and intermediate areas of the field.
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