The 2018 fantasy football season is coming to a close. For so many, it’s already over as last week saw the lowest fantasy scoring output in quite some time. Proving once again that getting into the playoffs requires skill, winning in the playoffs still requires luck.
The biggest trap of championship week is over-thinking the obvious plays. It’s difficult not to get too cute when we have the entirety of the season, and typically some money, on the line.
In this final article of the 2018 season, we aim to identify strong starts and the players who should be left out of lineups this week.
Fantasy Football Week 16: Starts and Sits Featuring Nick Chubb
Starts: Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Russell Wilson is an ever-evolving quarterback this season. For a team that logs the most rushing attempts in the NFL, he’s only rushed for 321 yards this season. He’s not relying on his legs to score fantasy points. Instead, he’s been hyper-efficient with his passing, especially in the red zone. His career high is 34 touchdowns in a season, which he’s done twice. With two games left he has 31 touchdowns on only 377 attempts.
The Kansas City Chiefs allow the second highest fantasy points to quarterbacks. It’s obvious that the Seattle Seahawks want to run the ball. However, this could turn into a shoot-out in a hurry, leading to more pass attempts. This bodes well for an extremely efficient Wilson in the pocket. Fire him up with confidence this week.
Dak Prescott vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Dak Prescott and the rest of the Dallas Cowboys offense did not look good last week. Recency bias makes it more difficult to put him in lineups. However, Prescott has played very well since Amari Cooper joined the team. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the most rushing and receiving touchdowns of any team in the NFL. It’s a cupcake matchup for a Cowboys team that’s still hungry for a playoff spot. Prescott is a top-10 option this week and a strong start in DFS lineups.
Sits: Quarterback
Tom Brady vs. Buffalo Bills
The New England Patriots have not looked like themselves the last several weeks. While one could attribute the “Miami Miracle” more of a fluke play, Tom Brady and company did not capitalize on their opportunities to put that game away.
In five of the last six games, the Buffalo Bills have held opposing quarterbacks to 170 yards or less. Their defense has played very well and has allowed the fewest points to quarterbacks this season.
Tom Brady is not a must-sit this week, but could easily end up outside the top-15 options this week.
Starts: Running Backs
Nick Chubb vs. Cinncinati Bengals
Since taking over as the primary back, rookie Nick Chubb has played very well. The Cleveland Browns are still figuring out their offense, but Chubb has become a central part of that plan. While he failed to score a touchdown last week, he eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the third time this season last week. This week, the Browns take on the Cincinnati Bengals who are allowing the most fantasy points to running backs. Chubb is a top-five option this week in a drool-worthy matchup.
Marlon Mack vs. New York Giants
Marlon Mack silenced some doubters last week. In a tough matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, he rushed for a career-high 139 yards and two scores. With the emergence of the Indianapolis Colts offensive line, Mack has looked fantastic when healthy.
This week, the Colts take on the New York Giants, who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. The Colts proved last week that they could rely on the run game to take a lead and keep it. Mack is a low-end RB1 with touchdown upside this week.
Sits: Running Back
Gus Edwards vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Baltimore Ravens offense has gone through some changes offensively speaking since their bye week. With the installment of rookie Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Gus Edwards has been a surprising fantasy asset. Three of the last five weeks he’s rumbled for over 100 yards. However, Gus Bus is a one-dimensional runner that excels at north/south, no-nonsense running. He’s a product of game script. If the Ravens get out to an early deficit, Edwards gets scripted out due to his lack of involvement in the passing game. Edwards remains in the low-end RB2 conversation, but could seriously disappoint fantasy owners this week.
Starts: Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Refer to the paragraph on Dak Prescott for part of the analysis on this pick. Amari Cooper has been a more stable fantasy player since joining a team that has an idea of how to use him. It’s a great matchup in what is an important game for the Cowboys. The Bucs don’t have anyone that can cover Cooper, or stop him from accumulating yards-after-the-catch. Cooper remains Prescott’s top target and should continue to see start-worthy volume. He’s a top-10 option this week for receivers.
Robert Woods vs. Arizona Cardinals
Robert Woods has quietly already put up 1,106 yards this season. Despite bad matchups or inconsistent quarterback play, Woods has been very solid from a production standpoint. He’s only finished under 61 yards one time this season. The Rams are still playing for something, and should right the shaky-ship this weekend. The Arizona Cardinals have been fairly stingy, allowing the 10th fewest points to wide receivers. However, there is no cause for concern for the consistency that Woods has shown this season. Fire him up as high-end WR2/low-end WR1 this week. He has definitely been a value considering his ADP around draft season.
Sits: Wide Receiver
Sterling Shepard vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sterling Shepard has been a disappointment, despite Odell Beckham Jr. being out of the lineup the last two games. In those two games, he has seen 15 targets, caught four passes for 54 total yards. The Colts defense has come a long way this season and is currently allowing the fifth-fewest points to receivers. Shepard should be in the conversation but hasn’t done much when targeted. It’s difficult to trust him as anything more than a touchdown-dependent flex option for championship week.
